Betting odds: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Colts -4
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: The Colts are going for their sixth-straight win. The Jags just lost to the Bills, fired their OC and benched their starting QB. Unsurprisingly, the public is all over Indy at the time of writing — to the tune of 75% of bets (see live betting data here).
Indy has moved to -3 to -4 since opening. The line had reached 4.5, but sharps actually hit the Jags at that number pretty hard. Given Blake Bortles’ performance this year, his value to the spread isn’t going to be worth that much more than Cody Kessler’s.
With 65% of bets, this game features the second-most popular under of the week, which has helped push the total down from 48 to 47. — Mark Gallant
Weather report: This game is projected to have average wind speeds of just a hair over 10 mph blowing across the field with temperatures in the upper 70s. —Mark Gallant
For whatever reason, road teams do well in windy games in the Sunshine State. Since 2003, when there is at least 10 mph winds at a Jaguars, Buccaneers or Dolphins game in Florida, the road team is 71-37-3 against the spread. — Evan Abrams
Trends to know: As a road favorite, Andrew Luck is 12-3 straight up and 10-5 against the spread, covering on average by 3.3 points per game, according to our Bet Labs data.
As a road favorite in division games, Luck is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. — John Ewing
Did you know? Cody Kessler will start Sunday for the Jags. In eight career starts he is 0-8 straight up and 2-6 ATS. Of course, all of those were in his rookie season with the Cleveland Browns.
While the team struggled, Kessler wasn’t bad completing 126 of 193 passes (65.3%), with six touchdowns and two interceptions. — John Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Colts’ red-zone prowess
I know, I know: The Jags actually have to get to the red zone first. But when (if?) they do, the struggle will be real.
The suspended Leonard Fournette piled up five red-zone touchdowns over the past three weeks, and the Jags still rank 24th overall inside the 20. Those five touchdowns accounted for more than a quarter of Jacksonville’s total on the year — not just red-zone touchdowns; total offensive touchdowns, period.
The Colts have not only held up well on defense in the red-zone (No. 9 overall), but they also don’t miss chances to cash in on the other end of the field, ranking fifth in red-zone conversion rate on offense — which also gives them the edge on Jacksonville’s 13th-ranked red-zone defense.
This puts the onus on the offense to generate explosive plays — except Kessler is known for his lack of arm strength, Carlos Hyde’s longest run with the team is 11 yards, and one of their most explosive receivers, Keelan Cole, has spent the past five weeks oscillating between liability, non-factor and benched.
I’m sure there’s a “finally it’s over” narrative scenario in here somewhere where the Bortles benching galvanizes the team, but it’s tough to envision the Jags scoring many points on offense.
Don’t be surprised if the score looks like Fournette wasn’t the only one on hiatus. — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier? Jaguars
Early week scares with tight end Eric Ebron (back), safety Clayton Geathers (knee), No. 1 receiver T.Y. Hilton (groin) and starting running back Marlon Mack (concussion) appear to be nothing serious for the Colts, as each player was able to return to practice Thursday.
The outlook is less clear with safety Malik Hooker (hip), center Ryan Kelly (knee), along with tight ends Ryan Hewitt (ankle), Erik Swoope (knee) and Mo Alie-Cox (calf).
Kessler is tentatively expected to have right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee) and left tackle Josh Walker (foot, ankle) back.
The offense could be without field-stretching rookie D.J. Chark (quad) again, while the defense is dealing with injuries to difference-makers, including cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee), defensive end Calais Campbell (ankle), safety Tashaun Gipson (ankle) and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (back).
Ramsey seems to be at the most risk of missing the game among this group.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Ramsey’s injury status will have ripple effects in the DFS world, so be sure to monitor our news feed for up-to-the-minute updates on Ramsey’s status.
Hilton and Ramsey are far from strangers at this point. The Jaguars’ No. 1 cornerback has been deployed in shadow coverage in each of his last three meeting against the Colts.
- 2017 Week 7: 2 receptions-27 yards-0 TD (8 targets)
- 2017 Week 13: 3-51-1 (6)
- 2018 Week 10: 3-77-0 (7)
Also working against Hilton are his concerning home/away splits since 2014 (per our NFL Trends tool):
- Hilton at home: 17.01 DraftKings PPG, +1.91 Plus/Minus, 51% Consistency
- On the road: 14.2 DraftKings PPG, -0.87 Plus/Minus, 32% Consistency
The Jaguars are certainly in a tail spin that has sapped their defense of any sort of intimidation factor, but Ramsey still ranks among the league’s top-15 cornerbacks in passer rating allowed into his coverage.
He’s essentially won every battle this season vs. wide receivers not named Odell Beckham Jr. (11-111-0) or Antonio Brown (5-117-1). — Ian Hartitz
Bet to watch: Colts -4
At this point the Jaguars resemble a team that has simply quit. They have fired their offensive coordinator, benched their quarterback and their best offensive player is suspended for this game.
The Colts are hot and trying to stay in the AFC South race. Frank Reich has his team committed and playing hard which is far more than can be said for Doug Marrone and the Jags. — BlackJack Fletcher
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.