Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during the divisional round but is expected to play in the AFC Championship Game vs. the Bengals.
This raises the question: How has Mahomes’ ailment — whether he plays or not — affected betting odds for a heavyweight matchup between the Bengals and Chiefs?
The consensus price on the Chiefs spread as of Wednesday afternoon is at roughly +1.5.
But if Mahomes were at 100% health, that fair value line should be closer to Kansas City -2.5 — a four-point swing.
The current market price on the moneyline also bakes into its price the fact that Mahomes won’t be 100%. While the current moneyline hovers at around +100, the fair market price should be -130 with a pre-ankle sprain Mahomes.
If we’re to extrapolate and get granular with the numbers here, that indicates the market thinks Mahomes will be at roughly 70-75% strength relative to a week ago and is pricing accordingly.
Fair Value Lines for Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game (Moneyline)
Data courtesy of The Action Network’s Travis Reed
The Chiefs are about 57% favorites to win this game with a full-strength Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium. Those are odds are about -130.
But, the current odds are at -104 at FanDuel. They’re as low as +110 at SuperBook. That implies a win probability of about 48%.
Without their MVP quarterback? The line would balloon to +5.5, with the Bengals being substantial road favorites against the No. 1 seed — one of the highest lines in history for a visitor during the championship round.
As it stands, the Chiefs are +1 (-110) underdogs at FanDuel. The 70-75% Mahomes health assessment the market made with the moneyline translates over for the spread.
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