What a wild and crazy Week 1.
Week 2 is one of my favorites because to start the season, all we had to go off is speculation, stories from reporters or coaches trying to be coy with their depth charts. Now, we have data to work with. Coaches’ true intentions have been exposed.
It’s now possible for me to use 2022 data to create projections.
Of course, it’s very easy to overreact to Week 1, so I’m careful in how I adjust my projections. Some of these initial Week 2 rankings may seem a bit crazy considering how attached we are to our thoughts entering the season. That makes it hard to adjust so quickly.
Keep in mind that these rankings could change quite a bit as I dig more into the data and splits from Week 1. Be sure to consult my updated tiers and rankings on Sunday morning before making any final sit/start decisions.
Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Josh Allen (vs. TEN)
Josh Allen was dominant against the Rams and finished the week as the QB2. He did nothing to lose his Tier 1 throne all to himself. To be clear, I do not expect him to finish as the QB1 overall every week, in fact, my simulation only gave him a 13.5% chance to finish as the QB1 (the next closest was Jalen Hurts at 8.3%). Patrick Mahomes was able to edge out Allen by 1.5 points to be the QB1 overall in Week 1 but needed 360 yards and five TD in order to do so. Allen’s rushing upside gives him the edge over Mahomes on a weekly basis.
Tier 2
Jalen Hurts (vs. MIN)
Patrick Mahomes (vs. LAC)
Lamar Jackson (vs. MIA)
Patrick Mahomes torched a depleted Cardinals defense for 360 yards and 5 TDs, making him the QB1 overall after Week 1. He may have lost his top WR in Tyreek Hill, but I like how the Chiefs added multiple weapons in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore in order to replace him. He should be able to take advantage of a Chargers defense that could be without CB J.C. Jackson for a second straight week.
Tier 3
Justin Herbert (@ KC)
Kyler Murray (@ LV)
Joe Burrow (@ DAL)
Derek Carr (vs. ARI)
Justin Herbert gets a slight downgrade without Keenan Allen, but I still consider him a top-five option in what should be a shootout. Derek Carr sneaks into Tier 3 as he gets to face a banged up Cardinals defense that Patrick Mahomes torched in Week 1. Davante Adams’ addition significantly raises Carr’s weekly floor/ceiling combo.
Tier 4
Trey Lance (vs. SEA)
Russell Wilson (vs. HOU)
Both of these QBs suffered brutal Week 1 losses and will look to bounce back in easy matchups at home this week.
I’m not too concerned about Trey Lance (yet) considering he was without George Kittle and the field conditions were a disaster in what was monsoon-level rain at times. I’m treating him as a low-end QB1 against the Seahawks.
Tier 5
Matthew Stafford (vs. ATL)
Aaron Rodgers (vs. CHI)
Tom Brady (@ NO)
Kirk Cousins (@ PHI)
Matthew Stafford’s elbow injury could be the reason for his dreadful Week 1 performance where he threw three TDs. His 5.6 intended air yards per pass (NextGenStats) ranked fifth lowest, meaning he wasn’t willing to push the ball downfield, after averaging 8.5 last season. However, there is also a good chance that his struggles were due to the Bills defense being dominant. We will have a much better idea after this week’s plus matchup against the Falcons.
Tier 6
Carson Wentz (@ DET)
Daniel Jones (vs. CAR)
Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND)
Matt Ryan (@ JAX)
Marcus Mariota (@ LAR)
Carson Wentz is my top streaming option this week as he should be able to pick apart the Lions secondary. I had mentioned heading into the season that the downfield connection between Wentz and Terry McLaurin could be sneaky, and sure enough they connected for a 49-yard touchdown in Week 1 (video below). It was also encouraging to see Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson perform well in Week 1, along with Logan Thomas, who was able to recover from his ACL surgery in time to be able to suit up for the opener.
CARSON WENTZ 🚀 TERRY MCLAURIN
pic.twitter.com/H0HCoO2AUp— PFF (@PFF) September 11, 2022
Tier 7
Tua Tagovailoa (@ BAL)
Jared Goff (vs. WAS)
Jared Goff got off to a brutal start but came on strong in the second half to finish as Week 1’s QB18. The Lions defense is going to give up a ton of points this season, meaning the Lions offense will have to try to keep up. Goff carries a sneaky high floor/ceiling combo for someone who offers very little rushing stats.
Tier 8
Jameis Winston (vs. TB)
Baker Mayfield (@ NYG)
Mitch Trubisky (vs. NE)
Justin Fields (@ GB)
Mac Jones (@ PIT)
Ryan Tannehill (@ BUF)
Winston was my favorite QB streaming option last week, and he came through as the QB7 for Week 1. The Saints offense looks much better this year with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave as the starting WR trio. However, a brutal Week 2 matchup against his former team in Tampa Bay, makes Winston a low-end QB2 option this week.
Tier 9
Jacoby Brissett (vs. NYJ)
Brissett possesses rushing upside, but he prefers to not tap into it. After Week 1, Brissett has now gone four starts in a row where he has finished with fewer than 15 rushing yards. This makes him a low-floor/ceiling QB3 option most weeks. In a matchup against the Jets, against whom the Browns will likely lean on Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt heavily, Brissett should only be used if you are in a desperate situation.
Tier 10
Davis Mills (@ DEN)
Joe Flacco (@ CLE)
Geno Smith (@ SF)
Cooper Rush (vs. CIN)
Hopefully, you aren’t in a situation where you need to start these QBs.
Joe Flacco could get by in Week 2 based on sheer volume. Geno Smith looked sharp in Week 1 and has one of the top WR duos in the league in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but don’t expect a top-15 finish most weeks.
Cooper Rush should start for the Cowboys until Dak Prescott returns, but it looks like Jerry Jones could “rush” Dak back or there is always the possibility they bring in another QB like Jimmy Garoppolo. As a result, Rush may only get a couple of starts. How he performs this week will likely dictate how the Cowboys decide to handle the situation.
Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Jonathan Taylor (@ JAX)
Jonathan Taylor is going to have Tier 1 all to himself most weeks, but with a matchup against the Jaguars this week, imagine him being like 2-3 Tiers ahead of Tier 2.
Tier 2
Christian McCaffrey (@ NYG)
Dalvin Cook (@ PHI)
Saquon Barkley (vs. CAR)
Austin Ekeler (@ KC)
Joe Mixon (@ DAL)
D’Andre Swift (vs. WAS)
Welcome back to the top five, Saquon Barkley! As I said heading into the season, it was worth buying the dip on Barkley in the RB13 range, considering he was entering the season 100% healthy and offers top-five upside when healthy. But boy, did he look like the 2018 version we all fell in love with. Barkley single-handedly converted the game-winning two-point conversion, as well.
Austin Ekeler’s underlying usage was pretty poor. He only ran a route on 38% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks with just 14 rush attempts in a positive game script. However, it was clear the Chargers were attempting to limit his usage with a comfortable lead. I think it’s likely they wanted to keep him fresh for the short week with a battle against the Chiefs on Thursday night.
The Chargers will have to lean on Ekeler even more with Keenan Allen unlikely to play. Don’t panic over his Week 1 and it’s worth remembering he got off to a slow start last season with 0 receptions in Week 1.
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Tier 3
Leonard Fournette (@ NO)
Derrick Henry (@ BUF)
Nick Chubb (vs. NYJ)
James Conner (@ LV)
Aaron Jones (vs. CHI)
Javonte Williams (vs. HOU)
We need to lower our expectations for Derrick Henry this week considering the Titans are 10-point underdogs against the Bills. Tennessee might have to abandon the run early, and we could see Dontrell Hilliard get more playing time as a result. Either way, it’s not like you can bench Henry, but keep your expectations this week in check.
James Conner was able to post the RB17 score in Week 1 despite the Cardinals getting blown out by the Chiefs. His usage was elite in the first half when the game was still somewhat competitive. Here was the Cardinals backfield usage in the first half:
- Rush Attempts: James Conner six, all other backs zero
- Routes Run: James Conner 13, Eno Benjamin one
I would not be shocked if Conner finishes inside the top 10 in Week 2.
Tier 4
Darrell Henderson (vs. ATL)
Alvin Kamara (vs. TB)
Antonio Gibson (@ DET)
Darrell Henderson operated as a true workhorse back for the Rams in Week 1. While he could eventually devolve back into more of a 50/50 committee with Cam Akers, I think we can treat him as a high-end RB2 heading into a plus matchup against the Falcons.
Alvin Kamara is dealing with a rib injury and has a brutal matchup against the Buccaneers this week. I’m downgrading him to a high/mid-range RB2 option for Week 2.
Tier 5
Cordarrelle Patterson (@ LAR)
A.J. Dillon (vs. CHI)
Josh Jacobs (vs. ARI)
Najee Harris (vs. NE)
Melvin Gordon (vs. HOU)
Cordarrelle Patterson saw a massive Week 1 workload thanks to the Falcons making rookie Tyler Allgeier a healthy scratch, only to have backup RB Damien Williams suffer an in-game injury. Either way, CPatt’s 22/120/1 and 3/16/0 lines just proved that his 2021 wasn’t a fluke and he offers a massive weekly ceiling. However, now would be a sneaky time to sell high as I’m sure the Falcons would prefer him to not have 25+ touches a game going forward.
Najee Harris apparently re-aggravated his Lisfranc sprain in his foot after getting tackled awkwardly, causing his left leg to get bent backward. He is downplaying it as “not serious” and expects to play against the Patriots. However, if Harris’ workload is limited, that will have a significant impact on his fantasy value considering we can’t count on Harris being efficient behind the Steelers below average offensive line. He’s a mid to low-end RB2 option heading into Week 2 until we find out more about his potential availability.
Tier 6
Miles Sanders (vs. MIN)
David Montgomery (@ GB)
Chase Edmonds (@ BAL)
Kareem Hunt (vs. NYJ)
Rashaad Penny (@ SF)
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. CIN)
Jeff Wilson (vs. SEA)
Devin Singletary (vs. TEN)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. LAC)
Damien Harris (@ PIT)
Michael Carter (@ CLE)
Rex Burkhead (@ DEN)
Kareem Hunt proved once again why he is an elite mid-round RB, thanks to his ability to post solid numbers even when Nick Chubb is healthy, as seen by his top-five finish in Week 1. He also carries top 10 upside in the event of a Nick Chubb injury.
I floated the idea of making Jeff Wilson a priority bench stash, just in case Elijah Mitchell was held out due to his hamstring injury. Mitchell was able to play through his hamstring injury but suffered a devastating MCL injury that is believed to keep him out for almost two months. Wilson played the majority of the snaps once Mitchell went down and he should be the 49ers lead back until Mitchell can return. However, Wilson’s upside is capped a bit by Trey Lance/Deebo Samuel both potentially seeing rush attempts inside the 5-yard line. I’m treating Wilson as a RB2/3 fringe option heading into Week 2.
Damien Harris should thrive in the Patriots new outside zone running scheme. He rushed for 22/114/2 (5.2 Y/A) on outside zone runs last season and had a 3/27/0 (9.0 Y/A) rushing line on outside zone runs in Week 1. With Ty Montgomery on the IR, we should see Rhamondre Stevenson operate more as the third-down back, potentially giving Harris even more early-down work.
Rex Burkhead opening up the season as the Texans lead back was both head-scratching and tilting at the same time. While I think Dameon Pierce should absolutely be the lead back for the Texans right now, I can’t ignore the reality that it’s simply not the case right now. Considering Burkhead operated as the main passing down back for the Texans last week, he should continue to see the majority of touches this week in what should be a trailing game script against the Broncos. It should only be a matter of time until Pierce is able to overtake the lead role though.
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Tier 7
Travis Etienne (vs. IND)
James Robinson (vs. IND)
Breece Hall (@ CLE)
Rhamondre Stevenson (@ PIT)
Tony Pollard (vs. CIN)
Jamaal Williams (vs. WAS)
I expected Michael Carter to out-touch Breece Hall in Week 1, so the 17-12 should raise too many red flags. Hall’s role should only increase as the season progresses and it was encouraging to already see him running a route on 42% of dropbacks. Floating a trade offer to an impatient Hall owner could be a sneaky buy-low play.
However, it was a surprise to see James Robinson out-touch Travis Etienne 13-6, especially considering it was a trailing game script. Both RBs enter Week 2 as dicey RB3/Flex options until we get a better idea of their expected split going forward.
Rhamondre Stevenson could struggle in the run game as the Patriots switch to an outside zone scheme. Last season, he had a 2.9 yards per carry on 10 outside zone run plays last season and only rushed for nine yards on five outside zone rush attempts in Week 1. However, with Ty Montgomery heading to the IR due to a knee injury, Stevenson could operate as the team’s main third-down back in the “James White role”. It’s a role that can carry a ton of value considering how often Mac Jones tends to check down to his RB in the passing game. Stevenson gets a slight boost in PPR formats.
Tier 8
Nyheim Hines (@ JAX)
Cam Akers (vs. ATL)
J.D. McKissic (@ DET)
Dameon Pierce (@ DEN)
J.K. Dobbins (vs. MIA)
Cam Akers needs to be on everyone’s bench until further notice, but not dropped. His non-existent Week 1 role could have been due to his undisclosed injury heading into Week 1, plus he is clearly in Sean McVay’s doghouse right now. However, that could change at a moment’s notice and we could see him return to a workhorse role. The same goes for Dameon Pierce right now.
Tier 9
Kenneth Gainwell (vs. MIN)
Jerick McKinnon (vs. LAC)
Kenyan Drake (vs. MIA)
Raheem Mostert (@ BAL)
Zack Moss (vs. TEN)
It’s going to be tough to trust any of these backup RBs heading into Week 2, but any one of them could see their role grow enough to be a RB3/Flex play in the right spots. They are all likely an injury away from being able to provide RB3+ value, making them decent bench stashes.
Tier 10
Isiah Pacheco (vs. LAC)
Brandon Bolden (vs. ARI)
Samaje Perine (@ DAL)
Khalil Herbert (@ GB)
Alexander Mattison (@ PHI)
Rachaad White (@ NO)
Don’t overreact to Isiah Pacheco’s 12/62/1 rushing line in Week 1. He only had a 2/2/0 rushing line heading into the fourth quarter. Most of his production came in garbage time. Pacheco is still a nice high upside bench stash in the meantime because we could see his role expand as the season goes on and he is a Clyde Edwards-Helaire injury away from becoming a potential RB2/3.
Khalil Herbert/Alexander Mattison/Rashaad White are all in a similar position and are great RB bench stashes right now.
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Cooper Kupp (vs. ATL)
Justin Jefferson (@ PHI)
Davante Adams (vs. ARI)
Cooper Kupp picked up right where he left off in 2021, going off for 13/128/1 against a stingy Bills defense in Week 1. However, Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams saw massive target shares last week and deserve to join Kupp in Tier 1.
Tier 2
Ja’Marr Chase (@ DAL)
The fact that the Cowboys will be without Dak Prescott this week could lower Ja’Marr’s Week 2 ceiling. The Bengals are massive 8-point road favorites this week, meaning we could see a more run-heavy game script. Either way, Chase is a slam-dunk top-five option, especially if Tee Higgins ends up missing Week 2 due to his concussion.
Tier 3
Stefon Diggs (vs. TEN)
Deebo Samuel (vs. SEA)
The 49ers may have to continue giving Deebo Samuel 5-8 rush attempts a game until Elijah Mitchell is able to return from his injury. The RB/WR role gives Samuel a massive floor/ceiling combo in an eruption spot against the Seahawks, who are vulnerable to players who get short area passes.
Tier 4
Michael Pittman Jr. (@ JAX)
A.J. Brown (vs. MIN)
Tyreek Hill (@ BAL)
Not that it was a surprise, but all three of these WRs saw a massive target share in Week 1. Congrats if you decided to target WR in the early rounds and wait until A.J. Dillon, Kareem Hunt, Tony Pollard and Melvin Gordon range to draft your RB2.
A.J. Brown was a pleasant surprise, and my draft strategy was to invest in him through Jalen Hurts. While I don’t regret that strategy, right now I definitely wish I doubled down and went for the Hurts-Brown stack.
Tier 5
Mike Evans (@ NO)
Gabriel Davis (vs. TEN)
As President of the Gabriel Davis fan club, I should probably be impeached after floating the idea that he was more of a fringe WR2/3 option against the Rams. Never again. He was as good as I thought he would be in a full-time role and did so against a very good Rams defense. He is a borderline top-10 option for Week 2.
Tier 6
Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. WAS)
D.J. Moore (@ NYG)
Mike Williams (@ KC)
Brandin Cooks (@ DEN)
Christian Kirk (vs. IND)
Diontae Johnson (vs. NE)
Juju Smith-Schuster (vs. LAC)
Courtland Sutton (vs. HOU)
Jerry Jeudy (vs. HOU)
Terry McLaurin (@ DET)
Tee Higgins (@ DAL)
Jaylen Waddle (@ BAL)
Mike Williams is going to be a roller coaster ride all season, you should have realized that when you drafted him. After posting a Week 1 (2/10/0) dud, it’s likely he bounces back with a big Week 2, especially with Keenan Allen out.
Christian Kirk jumps up into the mid-range WR2 range this week after the Jaguars opted for a pass-heavy approach on offense, even before going down by a couple of scores. He is clearly Trevor Lawrence’s No. 1 target and is looking like a steal at ADP.
Tee Higgins is currently in the concussion protocol which puts his Week 2 availability in question. Even if he is able to suit up, the Bengals may be cautious considering they are 8-point favorites against a Cowboys team without Dak Prescott.
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Tier 7
Marquise Brown (@ LV)
CeeDee Lamb (vs. CIN)
Chase Claypool (vs. NE)
Michael Thomas (vs. TB)
Hunter Renfrow (vs. ARI)
Elijah Moore (@ CLE)
D.K. Metcalf (@ SF)
CeeDee Lamb gets a massive downgrade with Dak Prescott expected to miss 4-8 games. I view him as a low-end WR2 as long as Cooper Rush is under center. I would be careful trading him away as his stock probably won’t get any lower. There is still a chance the Cowboys bring in a Jimmy Garoppolo or Dak is able to return in just a few weeks. You might want to just bite the bullet for the next couple of weeks, at least, and then reassess.
Chase Claypool was essentially a 99 Cents Only Store Deebo Samuel in Week 1, posting a 6/36/0 rushing line and 4/18/0 receiving line. He’s an intriguing WR3 option this week as the Steelers have shifted Claypool into the slot, inheriting more of the JuJu Smith-Schuster/Ray-Ray McLoud role, plus it looks like he could see more rush attempts if Najee Harris’ foot injury continues to be an issue.
Tier 8
Allen Robinson (vs. ATL)
Curtis Samuel (@ DET)
Josh Palmer (@ KC)
Julio Jones (@ NO)
Drake London (@ LAR)
Amari Cooper (vs. NYJ)
Rashod Bateman (vs. MIA)
Adam Thielen (@ PHI)
Darnell Mooney (@ GB)
Marvin Jones (vs. IND)
Robbie Anderson (@ NYG)
Zay Jones (vs. IND)
Allen Robinson’s Week 1 dud (1/12/0) is certainly a cause for concern. However, we may come to realize that a lot of WRs tend to struggle against the Bills (unless your name is Cooper Kupp). I view him as a WR3/bench candidate for Week 2 but would not do anything silly like drop him quite yet. It could take him a couple of weeks to fit into the Rams offense. Odell Beckham Jr. took a couple of games to hit his stride within the offense last year. Don’t panic too much … yet.
Josh Palmer sneaks his way into the low-end WR3 range this week with Keenan Allen expected to miss Thursday Night Football.
Curtis Samuel also finds himself in the low-end WR3 range this week after an impressive Week 1 where he rushed for 4/17/0 and posted a 8/55/1. After an injury-plagued 2021 season, Samuel finally looks 100% healthy, which means we can trust him this week against the Lions’ shaky secondary.
Baker Mayfield hooked up with Robbie Anderson for a 75-yard touchdown, leading to a massive 5/102/1 Week 1 stat line for Anderson. Robbie is a high-risk/reward WR4 heading into Week 2 and as always, I tend to only start highly volatile players like him if I’m a decent sized underdog heading into that week (or if my opponent has Thursday Night Football players go bonkers, making me a heavy underdog). In those scenarios, we would want to tap into Anderson’s ceiling, while accepting the fact he could easily post a dud if he’s unable to haul in a deep pass.
Tier 9
D.J. Chark (vs. WAS)
Jakobi Meyers (@ PIT)
Brandon Aiyuk (vs. SEA)
DeVante Parker (@ PIT)
Russell Gage (@ NO)
Jahan Dotson (@ DET)
Mecole Hardman (vs. LAC)
DeVonta Smith (vs. MIN)
Tyler Lockett (@ SF)
D.J. Chark handed me my first player prop bad beat of the 2022 season by hauling in a 22-yard TD pass from Jared Goff on what turned out to be the Lions’ last play of the game:
DJ CHARK! The @Lions have pulled within 3. #OnePride
📺: #PHIvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/0xppgWoFk7 pic.twitter.com/Iwb4Zk8Xgo— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2022
Chark is going to provide a ton of upside as Goff’s main deep threat and red-zone target. However, his value could take a pretty big hit once rookie Jameson Williams is healthy enough to make his debut. If Chark gets off to a hot start, he might be an ideal sell-high candidate.
Jahan Dotson was impressive in his NFL debut, posting a 3/40/2 receiving line and doing so with a 89% route participation rate. However, there are a ton of mouths to feed in this passing game, and he might need either Terry McLaurin or Samuel to miss time in order to provide consistent WR3 value.
Tier 10
Jarvis Landry (vs. TB)
Corey Davis (@ CLE)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. LAC)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (vs. NYJ)
Tyler Boyd (@ DAL)
Jarvis Landry led the Saints with nine targets in Week 1 and turned into a 7/114/0 receiving line. It seems like he’s been in the league for about 15 seasons now. We have to remember he’s only 29 years old and could be in line for a big season, especially if he’s making plays like this on a regular basis:
CLUTCH CATCH FROM JARVIS LANDRY 😱
Set the Saints up for the game-winning FG ✅
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/tbIVsuWqny
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 11, 2022
However, Landry is more of a low-end WR4 option this week against a very good Tampa Bay defense. He could sneak his way into WR3 territory next week against the Panthers though. I was really impressed with his Week 1 performance.
Tier 11
Chris Olave (vs. TB)
George Pickens (vs. NE)
Isaiah McKenzie (vs. TEN)
K.J. Osborn (@ PHI)
Kenny Golladay (vs. CAR)
Romeo Doubs (vs. CHI)
Robert Woods (@ BUF)
Noah Brown (vs. CIN)
Sterling Shepard (vs. CAR)
Kyle Philips (@ BUF)
Allen Lazard (vs. CHI)
Garrett Wilson (@ CLE)
Nico Collins (@ DEN)
Chris Olave, George Pickens, Romeo Doubs and Garrett Wilson are extremely talented rookie WRs who may need several weeks to truly break out. We saw this with Elijah Moore and Amon-Ra St. Brown last season. Not only are they still adjusting to the speed of the NFL, but they may also need an injury in order to see their role expand enough to be trusted as a WR3+ option. One that does happen though, watch out. As always with rookie WRs we need to remember to “hold the line”!
Kyle Philips is also a talented rookie WR, but he plays in a run-heavy offense, which is going to limit his ceiling. He made a HUGE play that helped set up the Titans game-winning FG attempt (that was missed):
Titans 5th Round rookie WR Kyle Philips had himself a day on his NFL debut.
Week 1:
9 Targets
6 Receptions
66 YardsSnaps: 31 (47.7%)
Routes: 21 (60%)
Target Share: 29%
Targets/Route: 0.43 (FIRST amongst players with +20% Routes Run)🎯👀🔥
pic.twitter.com/dcr810rrZp— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) September 12, 2022
There is a real chance Phillips will be Ryan Tannehill’s No. 1 target for the rest of the season. He’s a sneaky flier in deeper PPR formats.
Fantasy TE Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (vs. LAC)
Tier 2
Mark Andrews (vs. MIA)
Andrews posted a Week 1 dud by “only” going for 5/52/0. The only reason he isn’t in Tier 1 with Kelce this week is that I can’t even imagine Kelce putting up a mere mortal 5/52/0 stat line right now.
Tier 3
Darren Waller (vs. ARI)
Kyle Pitts (@ LAR)
After Week 1, it looks like Hunter Renfrow takes the biggest hit with the Raiders adding Davante Adams. Waller was still a big part of the offense, and his hamstring injury didn’t appear to be an issue in Week 1.
Both Waller and Kyle Pitts get a boost in value with George Kittle once again looking iffy for Week 2, and due to Dalton Schultz getting a massive downgrade due to the Dak injury.
Tier 4
Dallas Goedert (vs. MIN)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. WAS)
Gerald Everett (@ KC)
Zach Ertz (@ LV)
Tyler Higbee (vs. ATL)
Dalton Schultz (vs. CIN)
Pat Freiermuth (vs. NE)
Albert Okwuegbunam (vs. HOU)
The tight end position is wide open from TE5-12. Gerald Everett was my top streaming option last week after Donald Parham was ruled out. He was able to cash in on with a 3/54/1 receiving line and did most of the work on his 18-yard TD catch:
Gerald Everett backpedals his way into the end zone. What a throw by Herbert 💪
📺: #LVvsLAC on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/CBvEeqTkng pic.twitter.com/20Kk8SWHTg— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2022
With Parham out once again and Keenan Allen also out, I’m viewing Everett as a mid-range TE1 this week.
Tyler Higbee ran a route on 92% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks, which ranked third among TEs in Week 1. If Allen Robinson continues to struggle in this offense, there is a chance Higbee ends up being Stafford’s No. 2 target this year. He offers massive upside, and I think the market is still sleeping on him.
Schultz gets a massive downgrade with Prescott out. He should still see a ton of targets from Cooper Rush as he could act as his security blanket. It’s worth noting that he did catch two passes for 18 yards from Rush in their limited playing time together last Sunday night.
Tier 5
Hayden Hurst (@ DAL)
Hunter Henry (@ PIT)
Dawson Knox (vs. TEN)
Robert Tonyan Jr. (vs. CHI)
Evan Engram (vs. IND)
Cole Kmet (@ GB)
Irv Smith Jr. (@ PHI)
Logan Thomas (@ DET)
I felt like I was screaming into the void about Hayden Hurst heading into the season as a steal in the TE25 range in Best Ball. Therefore, it was very encouraging to see him run a route on 78% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks last week and cash in with a 5/46/0. He’s going to provide quite a few spiked weeks this season (a la C.J. Uzomah last season) and if Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, or Tyler Boyd ever miss time, he could sneak into the low-end TE1 discussion. With Higgins (concussion) questionable for Week 2, we could see Hurst enter the low-end TE1 discussion as soon as this week.
Robert Tonyan, Irv Smith Jr., and Logan Thomas could all offer potential low-end TE1 later in the season. However, all three were easing their way back in from injury to begin the season. I’m expecting their role to only grow going forward and we need to be keeping close tabs on all three.
Tier 6
David Njoku (vs. NYJ)
Tyler Conklin (@ CLE)
Jonnu Smith (@ PIT)
Brevin Jordan (@ DEN)
Austin Hooper (@ BUF)
Cameron Brate (@ NO)
Taysom Hill (vs. TB)
Noah Fant (@ SF)
Taysom Hill is getting the most buzz of all TEs this week after going off for 4/81/1 rushing and chipping in a two-yard reception. Hill offers the widest range of outcomes for any TE I have ever seen. He could easily follow up with a couple of rush attempts for 5 yards or even a 0 in Week 2.
Hill could also provide 5-8 high-value touches week in and week out, with the potential to even start at QB at some point this season. Either way, it’s too soon to start him over Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee or Hayden Hurst types that may still be available in your league.
The only other time I’ve recommended stashing a TE on the bench was Dallas Goedert a couple of years ago in case of a Zach Ertz injury. I think Hill warrants that type of treatment if you have the space. Don’t drop someone like Alexander Mattison or Drake London to make room for him. Definitely be reasonable, but you don’t win fantasy football championships by being ultra-conservative with your early decisions. The worst-case scenario is you drop Hill in a few weeks.
Tier 7
Juwan Johnson (vs. TB)
Kylen Granson (@ JAX)
Tre’ McKitty (@ KC)
Mo Alie-Cox (@ JAX)
Isaiah Likely (vs. MIA)
Harrison Bryant (vs. NYJ)
Mike Gesicki (@ BAL)
Geoff Swaim (@ BUF)
O.J. Howard (@ DEN)
Tommy Tremble (@ NYG)
Daniel Bellinger (vs. CAR)
Tyler Kroft (vs. SEA)
Juwan Johnson, Kylen Granson and Isaiah Likely are the only TEs in this range that offers long-term high-end TE2 potential. They may need an injury or two in order to even come close to that potential, though.
Hopefully, you’ve been paying attention to my Mike Gesicki warnings the past few weeks. He is not a fit for the new scheme Mike McDaniels is implementing. The only upside he offers right now is if he gets traded to another team with a sudden need for a starting TE.