Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Josh Allen (@ BAL)
Jalen Hurts (vs. JAX)
Lamar Jackson (vs. BUF)
There’s no point in splitting hairs on how to specifically rank the top three since no one is needing to make lineup decisions with any of these QBs. Each of these elite QB1 options carry an ideal floor/ceiling combo week in and week out. The fact Allen and Jackson play each other helps raise both of their ceilings in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.
Tier 2
Joe Burrow (vs. MIA)
Justin Herbert (@ HOU)
Patrick Mahomes (@ TB)
Kyler Murray (@ CAR)
Joe Burrow sneaks his way into Tier 2 this week as he comes off of his best game of the season, going 275/3/0 against the Jets. This week, he gets a Dolphins defense that has given up big games to Jackson (318/3/0) and Allen (400/2/0) over the past two weeks. If Teddy Bridgewater ends up having to start for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, it would lower Burrow’s Week 4 ceiling a bit, but he would still be a midrange QB1 option this week.
Tier 3
Derek Carr (vs. DEN)
Jared Goff (vs. SEA)
Jared Goff sneaks into my initial top-10 rankings this week, thanks in large part to the potential shootout against the Seahawks. The Lions currently have the second-highest implied team total at 27.5, which means the odds of Goff throwing for two or more TDs this week are significantly higher than most weeks.
Tier 4
Marcus Mariota (vs. CLE)
Aaron Rodgers (vs. NE)
Kirk Cousins (@ NO)
Tom Brady (vs. KC)
Marcus Mariota came up just short of posting low-end QB1 numbers last week and it mainly had to do with his low output on the ground, only rushing seven times for four yards. However, he did manage to score a 1-yard rushing TD.
Mariota is essentially operating as the Falcons’ goal-line back this season. He has two rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line this season compared to Cordarrelle Patterson’s one. We have yet to see a week where Mariota puts it all together with his arm/legs, but he carries top-five upside with his dual-threat ability.
Tier 5
Trevor Lawrence (@ PHI)
Geno Smith (@ DET)
Daniel Jones (vs. CHI)
Tua Tagovailoa (@ CIN)
The Year 2 leap Trevor Lawrence has made so far has been striking. A lot of it could be due from simply going from an incompetent head coach in Urban Meyer to a competent one in Doug Pederson. After three games, Lawrence ranks sixth in QB rating, sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt and fourth in Expected Points Added per play.
Lawrence has performed as a top-six QB through three games, but he’ll face his toughest test yet against the Eagles this week. That matchup makes him more of a high-end QB2 option, but he’ll likely be a consensus QB1 option against the Texans in Week 5.
In the meantime, watch this amazing TD throw to Zay Jones, while on the move last week:
ZAY WAY@zayjones11 | @Trevorlawrencee #JAXvsLAC on CBS pic.twitter.com/ubVlP4tBbQ
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 25, 2022
Tua Tagovailoa is questionable for Thursday Night Football with back/ankle injuries. He looks to be shaping up as a true game-time decision. If he’s unable to suit up, you’ll have the entire rest of the slate to choose a replacement option, if needed.
Tier 6
Jacoby Brissett (@ ATL)
Russell Wilson (@ LV)
Carson Wentz (@ DAL)
Matthew Stafford (@ SF)
I was very low on Russell Wilson last week, and it was a bit of a head scratcher why his expert consensus ranking (ECR) was QB11 despite his struggles and the tough matchup. This week, he has a much easier matchup against the Raiders, but I’m not sold on him being a low-end QB1 (his current ECR is QB10).
The Broncos have been able to lean on their running game and defense to a 2-1 start, and I don’t see that changing too much this week. Wilson could eventually find his way into my top 12, but it may be a few more games before he really starts clicking on his new team.
Matthew Stafford gets a huge downgrade based on a brutal matchup against the 49ers this week. The 49ers have yet to allow a 200-yard passing game through three weeks, although they have only faced Justin Fields, Geno Smith and Wilson. However, the Rams’ implied team total of 20 suggests we need to lower our TD expectations for Stafford this week.
Tier 7
Jameis Winston (vs. MIN)
Baker Mayfield (vs. ARI)
Matt Ryan (vs. TEN)
Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. LAR)
Mitch Trubisky (vs. NYJ)
Cooper Rush (vs. WAS)
Ryan Tannehill (@ IND)
Zach Wilson (@ PIT)
Jameis Winston is playing through small fractures in his back, along with an ankle injury, so it might be difficult to trust him in the short-term until he can get closer to 100% health. Over the long haul, it has been nice to see Winston return to his YOLO playing style as he currently leads the league with a 11.4 average intended air yards.
We have reached the point in the season where there is a non-zero possibility of Mitch Trubisky getting benched in-game for Kenny Pickett. Considering the Steelers are 3.5-favorites at home against the Jets this week, I would say the odds of it happening are very low. However, you will have to keep this in the back of your mind whenever starting Trubisky going forward as he carries a lower floor than most QBs in this range.
Zach Wilson is expected to make his season debut this week. One of Wilson’s positive attributes is the ability to use his speed to avoid pressure and scramble. However, since he’s coming back from a meniscus injury, he could be fairly limited for the first couple games back. I’m considering Wilson more of a QB3 option this week.
Tier 8
Davis Mills (vs. LAC)
Justin Fields (@ NYG)
Fields has yet to top 125 passing yards this season and isn’t putting enough rushing stats to even be in the low-end QB2 discussion right now.
Tier 9
Brian Hoyer (@ GB)
Hoyer is expected to start as long as Mac Jones is out with his high ankle sprain and is only playable for the most desperate managers in 2QB/Superflex formats
Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN)
Christian McCaffrey (vs. ARI)
Sure, if you squint at McCaffrey’s measly 2/7/0 receiving line last week, you can complain about Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule not giving him enough targets. But this had a lot more to do with the Panthers’ run-heavy game plan in a win over the Saints, which saw CMC run 25 times for 108 yards. He’s a top-three back the rest of the season with his current role, as long as he stays healthy.
Speaking of that, McCaffrey missed practice on Wednesday with a thigh injury. There’s a lot of time for him to get right for Sunday, so hopefully we have a better idea of how serious this is before Sunday morning.
Tier 2
Saquon Barkley (vs. CHI)
Like McCaffrey, Barkley is going to provide top-five value the rest of the season as long as he stays healthy.
Tier 3
Nick Chubb (@ ATL)
Leonard Fournette (vs. KC)
Chubb sneaks into the top five in large part due to Derrick Henry’s brutal matchup against the Colts and the uncertainty surrounding Dalvin Cook (shoulder).
The Browns have the fourth-highest implied team total in Week 4, which elevates Chubb’s chances of finding the end zone.
Tier 4
Joe Mixon (vs. MIA)
Alvin Kamara (vs. MIN)
Mixon has struggled to get going on the ground, but I have been encouraged by his underlying receiving usage. His route run rate spiked to 64% in Week 3, and he’s facing a Dolphins team that just allowed Devin Singletary and James Cook to be targeted a combined 16 times.
Look for the Bengals to use Mixon more in the passing game as an extension of the ground game until their offensive line improves.
Kamara could finally be in for his first big game of the season this week in London. He played through a rib injury in Week 3. It could remain an issue this week, but he’s likely to be much closer to 100%.
The Vikings have been gashed on the ground this season and rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Rush DVOA. The Vikings defense also has used zone coverage at the second-highest rate this season, which means we could see a spike in receiving usage.
Tier 5
Austin Ekeler (@ HOU)
Jamaal Williams (vs. SEA)
Derrick Henry (@ IND)
Javonte Williams (@ LV)
Aaron Jones (vs. NE)
Henry has a brutal matchup against a Colts defense that ranks second in DVOA against the run. One way he may be able to overcome that matchup and remain efficient is through his increased usage in the passing game. Henry posted a 5/58/0 receiving line last week, which we aren’t accustomed to seeing. Either way, he’s still a mid/low-end RB1 this week.
Tier 6
Dalvin Cook (@ NO)
Najee Harris (vs. NYJ)
Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. CLE)
The plan is for Cook to play this week despite a separated shoulder, but he did miss a game last season with a similar injury. He plays early Sunday morning in London, so we’ll have a much better idea of his status and potential workload by then. Have a backup ready just in case he’s out.
Harris is coming off a rough start to the season, but he bailed himself out in Weeks 1 and 3 with touchdowns. The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites at home this week, which presents Harris a great opportunity to run for 60 or more yards for the first time this season.
It’s worth noting that backup RB Jaylen Warren flashed his explosiveness in Week 3 and could earn a bigger role moving forward. It’s something to monitor and would certainly hurt Harris’ value, since his main asset is his dominance over the touches in the Steelers backfield.
Tier 7
Josh Jacobs (vs. DEN)
James Conner (@ CAR)
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. WAS)
A.J. Dillon (vs. NE)
Jeff Wilson (vs. LAR)
Miles Sanders (vs. JAX)
I was down on Dillon last week because of the bad matchup against the Bucs defense, but this should be a smash spot. The Packers face a Brian Hoyer-led Patriots team this week, which sets up perfectly for a big game from Dillon.
Usually, we salivate to see “vs. JAX” next to a running back’s name. That might not be the case this year, though, as the Jaguars defense enters Week 4 as the NFL’s best against the run, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. They’ve held Antonio Gibson (14/58/0), Jonathan Taylor (9/54/0) and Austin Ekeler (4/5/0) in check this season.
Sanders banks on elite rushing efficiency, which means he’s the kind of player who will get a downgrade in this matchup. He’s still a volume-based low-end RB2 this week, though.
Tier 8
Dameon Pierce (vs. LAC)
James Robinson (@ PHI)
Kareem Hunt (@ ATL)
Antonio Gibson (@ DAL)
Ever since a bizarre Week 1 that saw Rex Burkhead out-touch Pierce 19-12, the rookie has asserted his dominance with 38 touches to Burkhead’s nine. We can treat Pierce as a low-end RB2 now, which is what you thought you were getting when you drafted him.
James Robinson and the Jags continue to outperform their preseason expectations, but this could be the first time they face a trailing game script. That would mean a bigger role for Travis Etienne as the pass-catching back in the Jags backfield, although it hasn’t been wise to bet against Robinson — or Jacksonville — this season. Robinson remains a low-end RB2 option.
Tier 9
David Montgomery (@ NYG)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (@ TB)
Rhamondre Stevenson (@ GB)
J.K. Dobbins (vs. BUF)
Breece Hall (@ PIT)
Michael Carter (@ PIT)
Head coach Matt Eberflus said on Wednesday that Montgomery is “day to day,” but there’s a good chance he misses Week 4 due to the lower leg injury he suffered against the Texans. Khalil Herbert obviously needs to be rostered in all formats and will be an RB2 option if Montgomery is out.
As expected, Dobbins was limited in his 2022 debut. However, it was encouraging to see he ran a route on 41% of Lamar Jackson’s drop backs. That could come in handy this week against a zone-heavy Bills defense. RBs tend to see a spike in receiving usage against zone coverage.
Dobbins is more of an RB3/flex this week, but he could push for low-end RB2 value one he’s healthy enough to see 10 or more rushing attempts every week.
Tier 10
Rashaad Penny (@ DET)
Tony Pollard (vs. WAS)
Devin Singletary (@ BAL)
Khalil Herbert (@ NYG)
Damien Harris (@ GB)
Travis Etienne (@ PHI)
Harris’ value took a big hit in Week 3. Not only did Rhamondre Stevenson out-rush him for the first time this season, but Mac Jones’ injury hurts the starting RB. The Patriots are 10.5-point road underdogs in Green Bay this week, which sets up betting for Stevenson, who ran a route on 62% of drop backs last week.
Harris is a TD-dependent RB3/flex in a game where the Patriots may have a hard time getting in the end zone on offense.
Tier 11
Cam Akers (@ SF)
Darrell Henderson (@ SF)
Melvin Gordon (@ LV)
Chase Edmonds (@ CIN)
Raheem Mostert (@ CIN)
Both the Rams and Dolphins backfields are a close-to-even timeshare right now. This week, neither teams’ matchup sets up well for a specific back, which makes it hard to trust any of them.
Tier 12
J.D. McKissic (@ DAL)
Nyheim Hines (vs. TEN)
Craig Reynolds (vs. SEA)
Jerick McKinnon (@ TB)
Rex Burkhead (vs. LAC)
The Chiefs backfield is fairly volatile right now. Jerick McKinnon seems to be moving in a position where he could potentially leapfrog Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the team’s lead back.
This week, we can’t trust McKinnon against the Bucs’ strong defense, but he needs to be on your radar as a potential RB3/flex option next week against the Raiders.
Tier 13
Alexander Mattison (@ NO)
Tyler Allgeier (vs. CLE)
Sony Michel (@ HOU)
Kenneth Gainwell (vs. JAX)
Eno Benjamin (@ CAR)
Brandon Bolden (vs. DEN)
Samaje Perine (vs. MIA)
Jaylen Warren (vs. NYJ)
Justice Hill (vs. BUF)
Mattison would jump all the way up to the Tier 7 range if Cook misses this weekend’s game against the Saints. He should see enough volume to be considered a mid-range RB2 option in that scenario.
As always, I encourage you to check my updated rankings once we have more information about injuries as we get closer to kickoff. This situation is especially important to monitor.
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Cooper Kupp (@ SF)
Stefon Diggs (@ BAL)
Justin Jefferson (@ NO)
Tier 2
Ja’Marr Chase (vs. MIA)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. SEA)
Deebo Samuel (vs. LAR)
Tyreek Hill (@ CIN)
Davante Adams (vs. DEN)
A.J. Brown (vs. JAX)
Tua Tagovailoa could miss the Dolphins’ Thursday Night Football matchup against the Bengals. Hill would get a slight downgrade with Bridgewater under center, but he’d still be a low-end WR1 and must-start for Week 4.
Tier 3
Tee Higgins (vs. MIA)
Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. TEN)
Jaylen Waddle (@ CIN)
Not only will Tagovailoa’s status impact Waddle’s ranking, but the second-year receiver is also dealing with a groin injury, making him someone whose status needs to be monitored before TNF.
Tier 4
Diontae Johnson (vs. NYJ)
Marquise Brown (@ CAR)
Courtland Sutton (@ LV)
Mike Evans (vs. KC)
CeeDee Lamb (vs. WAS)
Keenan Allen (@ HOU)
D.K. Metcalf (@ DET)
Christian Kirk (@ PHI)
Gabriel Davis (@ BAL)
Amari Cooper (@ ATL)
Brandin Cooks (vs. LAC)
Drake London (vs. CLE)
Tyler Lockett (@ DET)
While is was disappointing to see Davis go for just 3/37/0 in a game that saw Josh Allen throw for 400 yards, he was at least back after missing Week 2 due to an ankle injury. Once again, he saw a healthy amount of playing time, running a route on 96% of Allen’s dropbacks, and he had a potential 12-yard TD slip out of his hands. Big games are on the horizon for Davis.
Tier 5
DeVonta Smith (vs. JAX)
D.J. Moore (vs. ARI)
Chris Olave (vs. MIN)
Terry McLaurin (@ DAL)
Curtis Samuel (@ DAL)
Mike Williams (@ HOU)
Adam Thielen (@ NO)
Brandon Aiyuk (vs. LAR)
Michael Thomas (vs. MIN)
Romeo Doubs (vs. NE)
Williams could be a dicey WR3 when Keenan Allen returns. As someone who bet Williams’ receptions under for Week 3, the Chargers don’t want Justin Herbert waiting in the pocket for Williams to get open, which would increase the chances of Herbert getting more injured. The Chargers could have a more run-heavy approach this week against the Texans. Also, Josh Palmer is starting to emerge in this offense, which could eat into Williams’ target share.
Doubs proved why he was an ideal bench stash to begin the season. He seems to be on the path to replace at least some of Davante Adams’ production in Green Bay this season. He’s more of a low-end WR3 option this week against a Brian Hoyer-led Patriots team, since the Packers may not need to throw much. Doubs stock is on the rise, though.
Tier 6
Jerry Jeudy (@ LV)
Rashod Bateman (vs. BUF)
Elijah Moore (@ PIT)
Garrett Wilson (@ PIT)
Russell Gage (vs. KC)
Allen Robinson (@ SF)
Juju Smith-Schuster (@ TB)
Jahan Dotson (@ DAL)
Hunter Renfrow (vs. DEN)
Richie James (vs. CHI)
Zay Jones (@ PHI)
Bateman is operating more as a downfield threat this season, which is clear based on his 17.6 yard average depth of target through three games. That makes him much more of a high-ceiling/low-floor option than we would’ve anticipated before the season. Considering Baltimore will be in a potential shootout against Buffalo, Bateman is more likely to boom than bust, but it’s something we need to be aware of moving forward.
James managed to level a brutal beat against me on Monday night, when he hauled in this ridiculous grab to go over his receiving yards prop by one-half yard:
This was an UNREAL throw by Daniel Jones — off his back foot lofted this gem to Richie James! pic.twitter.com/TbPd7bYqkZ
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) September 27, 2022
As I said when I wrote that prop up, James has always been an underrated WR, but he’s not going to be able to maintain his 88% catch rate moving forward. This week, however, with Sterling Shepard’s torn ACL, James could jump into the WR3 conversation if Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney remain out.
James is someone to monitor since his current projection assumes both Robinson and Toney return in some capacity this week. That means James’ ranking would go way up if both are out.
Tier 7
D.J. Chark (vs. SEA)
Tyler Boyd (vs. MIA)
Robert Woods (@ IND)
Allen Lazard (vs. NE)
Josh Reynolds (vs. SEA)
Marvin Jones (@ PHI)
Treylon Burks (@ IND)
Greg Dortch (@ CAR)
Robbie Anderson (vs. ARI)
Mack Hollins (vs. DEN)
Burks is loaded with upside, but it could take time before we see him break out. His receiving yards have decreased in every game, from 55 to 47 to 13. His routes run has gone up, though, from 37% to 61% to 96%.
The best way to describe what I’m seeing with Burks’ underlying usage is the equivalent of a shoreline receding after a tsunami. Don’t be distracted by Burks’ yardage decline. The other data suggests a breakout game is imminent. I’m not saying you should start him this week, but he may become fantasy relevant in the coming weeks. This could be a good time to buy low while you can.
Tier 8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@ TB)+
Chase Claypool (vs. NYJ)
Isaiah McKenzie (@ BAL)-
Darnell Mooney (@ NYG)+
Noah Brown (vs. WAS)-
Jarvis Landry (vs. MIN)-
Josh Palmer (@ HOU)
Nico Collins (vs. LAC)
K.J. Osborn (@ NO)
Julio Jones (vs. KC)+
Jakobi Meyers (@ GB)-
George Pickens (vs. NYJ)+
I typically make my start/sit decisions in this range based on the odds of me winning my matchup that week. If I’m a healthy favorite, I tend to go with players who have a higher floor (I’ve designated those players with a hyphen next to their name above). If I’m a decent underdog, I tend to go with someone who has a higher ceiling (those players have a plus sign next to their name).
Pickens flashed his ability in the preseason, but his catch against the Browns in Week 2 will go down as one of the best catches of the season. Hopefully, this leads to Mitch Trubisky targeting him down the field more this season, but he also might need Kenny Pickett to take over before his potential is reached.
What was THE Moment of Week 3? Hello, George Pickens.
When will we see this on @NFLALLDAY? 🤔 #ALLDAYMoment pic.twitter.com/TAvet6kWFe
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2022
Fantasy TE Rankings & Tiers
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (@ TB)
Mark Andrews (vs. BUF)
Kelce and Andrews are so far ahead of this position that there are really two or three tier drops before we finally hit Tier 2.
“Tier 2”
Kyle Pitts (vs. CLE)
Darren Waller (vs. DEN)
George Kittle (vs. LAR)
We finally got a Kyle Pitts breakout in Week 3, when he registered 5/87/0. However, there are still concerns about his usage since he only ran a route on 65% of Marcus Mariota’s dropbacks. I wouldn’t be too worried, but we’re still waiting on Falcons coach Arthur Smith to use Pitts like the generational talent he is.
Foster Moreau has been eating into some of Waller’s usage over the past two weeks, and he actually had twice as many yards as Waller last week (44-22). However, Waller still ran a route on 88% of Derek Carr’s drop backs. He’s still a top-five option at the position, but Moreau’s emergence is something we need to monitor.
Tier 3
Dallas Goedert (vs. JAX)
Zach Ertz (@ CAR)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. SEA)
Tier 4
Tyler Higbee (@ SF)
Pat Freiermuth (vs. NYJ)
David Njoku (@ ATL)
Njoku has always carried massive upside, but we’re finally seeing him unleashed. He’s posted a routes run rate over 80% in back-to-back games, and he’s clearly the No. 2 target in the Browns offense. Njoku carries higher weekly floor than we’re accustomed to. He’ll offer the occasional spiked week like he did on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
Njoku should be viewed as a low-end TE1.
Tier 5
Gerald Everett (@ HOU)
Evan Engram (@ PHI)
Robert Tonyan Jr. (vs. NE)
Dawson Knox (@ BAL)
Irv Smith Jr. (@ NO)
Cameron Brate (vs. KC)
Tyler Conklin (@ PIT)
Robert Tonyan’s routes run rate has gone from 42% in Week 1 to 48% in Week 2 and 61% in Week 3. This was expected as he eases back from a torn ACL last season. I think his playing time could continue to grow until we get into the 70% range. He’s one of Aaron Rodgers’ most trusted targets, especially in the red zone, and has commanded a 23% target rate this season.
I featured Tonyan as one of my preferred streamers this week because he could find himself in the low-end TE1 discussion once he scores his first touchdown. The time to buy low on Tonyan is now.
Tier 6
Logan Thomas (@ DAL)
Hayden Hurst (vs. MIA)
Dalton Schultz (vs. WAS)
Hunter Henry (@ GB)
Albert Okwuegbunam (@ LV)
Juwan Johnson (vs. MIN)
Noah Fant (@ DET)
Isaiah Likely (vs. BUF)
Likely’s hype has died down after three weeks, but this could finally be the week we see a mini-breakout for him. Likely had a 47% routes run rate last week, and the Ravens could be forced into a Week 4 shootout against the Bills. Buffalo uses zone coverage at the third-highest rate this season. While it’s a small sample size, Likely has a 0.27 yards per route run rate against man this year compared to 2.31 against zone.
Tier 7
Austin Hooper (@ IND)
Cole Kmet (@ NYG)
Pharaoh Brown (vs. LAC)
Harrison Bryant (@ ATL)
Mo Alie-Cox (vs. TEN)
Mike Gesicki (@ CIN)
Will Dissly (@ DET)
Geoff Swaim (@ IND)
Ian Thomas (vs. ARI)
To think there was a point in time where both Kmet and Gesicki were drafted as low-end TE1s entering the season… Yikes.