Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2022.
This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2022 Fantasy Draft Kit.
My draft strategy for the QB position varies based on the league type.
For season-long head-to-head formats where you only start one QB, the position itself comes with a high floor already baked in: the waiver wire. At any given time, you will have over a dozen starting quarterbacks available to you to add as a potential one-week start and can easily find a QB2 (sometimes a QB1) option available to you. That’s why it’s usually a smart strategy to wait as long as possible to draft a QB, and when you do finally target a QB, go for the most upside possible.
For leagues that start two QBs or use a Superflex position, the demand for starting QBs goes way up. The reason for this is there are only 32 starting QBs at any given time. No other position deals with as massive of a drop-off from a starting QB to a backup QB. Therefore, it’s critical to draft two or three of them before the top 25-35 of them are off the board.
In these types of formats, it’s more valuable to draft QBs with a higher floor. Having QBs who can start for all 17 games and provide you a solid score week in and week out are way more valuable in these types of formats.
In Best Ball formats, your main goal is to maximize your team’s ceiling. Dual-threat quarterbacks offer a higher weekly ceiling and are great Best Ball targets. However, the best way to maximize value with your QB strategy is to stack them with 1-3 of their pass catchers. By doing so, you are correlating spiked weeks from your QB with other positions on your team. Therefore, if you drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson earlier in your draft, you should consider targeting Jared Goff as your QB2/3 later in the draft.
Throughout my tiers, I try to highlight the best formats to target specific QBs and which QBs I’m targeting/avoiding at their current ADP.
These rankings are for 12-team, half-PPR leagues.
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
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| Tier | Players |
| 1 | Josh Allen (BUF) |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) Justin Herbert (LAC) Lamar Jackson (BAL) |
| 3 | Kyler Murray (ARI) Jalen Hurts (PHI) Tom Brady (TB) |
| 4 | Dak Prescott (DAL) Joe Burrow (CIN) |
| 5 | Trey Lance (SF) Matthew Stafford (LAR) Russell Wilson (DEN) |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) Derek Carr (LV) Kirk Cousins (MIN) |
| 7 | Justin Fields (CHI) Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Ryan Tannehill (TEN) Jameis Winston (NO) Daniel Jones (NYG) |
| 8 | Matt Ryan (IND) Carson Wentz (WAS) Mac Jones (NE) Jared Goff (DET) |
| 9 | Baker Mayfield (CAR) |
| 10 | Zach Wilson (NYJ) Davis Mills (HOU) Marcus Mariota (ATL) |
| 11 | Jacoby Brissett (CLE) Kenny Pickett (PIT) |
| 12 | Geno Smith (SEA) |
| 13 | Deshaun Watson (CLE) Drew Lock (SEA) Mitch Trubisky (PIT) Desmond Ridder (ATL) Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) |
Tier 1
Josh Allen (BUF)
Takeaway: Target Allen (in spots) at ADP.
Tier 2
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Once Allen is off the board, these elite QB1’s typically get drafted 1-3 rounds later. I think that’s a reach and would rather wait at the position. The QB position is incredibly deep this season.
Takeaway: I’m typically passing on this tier.
Tier 3
Kyler Murray (ARI)
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Tom Brady (TB)
Getting Jalen Hurts when he falls outside of the top 60 is part of my optimal draft strategy. It allows you to address RB/WR (possibly TE) through the first several rounds and still land a QB with QB1 overall upside.
Takeaway: Target Jalen Hurts.
Tier 4
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Joe Burrow (CIN)
I’m more interested in investing in the Cowboys/Bengals skill players than I am in targeting Prescott or Burrow.
Takeaway: Fade these QBs, but invest in them through their pass catchers.
Tier 5
Trey Lance (SF)
Russell Wilson (DEN)
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Trey Lance is my backup plan once Jalen Hurts is off the board. His rushing ability, arm strength, surrounding talent and Kyle Shanahan’s scheme provide him with the ideal floor/ceiling combo.
My optimal draft strategy is to get Hurts (if he falls outside of the top 60 and/or it makes sense to pull the trigger). If he gets taken early, it would be to target Trey Lance.
Once Lance is off the board, my strategy would be to punt the QB position altogether and plan on beginning the season by streaming the position.
Let me be very clear though: The optimal draft for me would involve landing Lance at ADP.
Takeaway: Target Lance ahead of ADP.
Tier 6
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Derek Carr (LV)
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
In 2QB/Superflex formats, this tier is incredibly valuable. All three offer a high floor and Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins are set up to potentially have career years.
Takeaway: Target Carr and Cousins in 2QB/Superflex formats.
Tier 7
Justin Fields (CHI)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Jameis Winston (NO)
Daniel Jones (NYG)
Every QB in this tier has a wide range of outcomes.
Justin Fields has the rushing upside to produce low-end QB1 numbers, but the lack of pass-catching talent (outside of Darnell Mooney/Cole Kmet) limits his upside.
Trevor Lawrence had a dreadful rookie season, but the sky is still the limit when it comes to his upside. It was nice to see him flash some confidence last week against the Steelers. Not only did he thread the needle on a very dangerous pass, but he gave Cam Sutton a finger wave after the completion:
Nice touch on this throw from Trevor Lawrence pic.twitter.com/6Sa3Aq2Xlr
— Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker) August 21, 2022
Lawrence is my favorite target from this tier. New Jags head coach Doug Pederson should be able to get his bright future back on track.
Takeaway: Most QBs in this tier offer a nice floor/ceiling combo in 2QB/Superflex formats. Trevor Lawrence is my preferred target.
Tier 8
Matt Ryan (IND)
Carson Wentz (WAS)
Mac Jones (NE)
Jared Goff (DET)
Matt Ryan, Mac Jones and Jared Goff are solid high-floor options in 2QB/Superflex formats. The position starts to fall off a cliff after this Tier, so it’s critical to snag one of these guys if you are looking for your second or third QB.
Takeaway: Target this Tier in 2QB/Superflex formats since the position takes a sharp dip once these players are off the board. Goff is my favorite value of the tier.
Tier 9
Baker Mayfield (CAR)
Baker Mayfield is in No Man’s Land since he likely represents the last QB we can safely project for 15+ starts if he stays healthy. The chances of rookie Matt Corral getting a few starts at the end of the season (if the Panthers are out of the playoff hunt) evaporated when he suffered a season-ending foot injury.
Takeaway: Target Mayfield if you are in need of one more QB that we can project for 15+ starts.
Tier 10
Zach Wilson (NYJ)
Davis Mills (HOU)
Marcus Mariota (ATL)
Zach Wilson suffered a knee injury that could knock him out for the first couple of games. I’m concerned that even when he does return, his rushing upside will be limited until he’s 100% recovered from his knee injury. Wilson’s stock took a major hit the past couple of weeks.
Marcus Mariota’s stock has been climbing, as he looks like a lock to be the Falcons’ Week 1 starter. Rookie Desmond Ridder could replace him at any point in the season, but the odds of that are getting lower by the day. Mariota offers a ton of rushing upside and has a solid trio of pass-catching weapons in Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. He’s a sneaky late-round pick.
Takeaway: Target Mariota if you want Weeks 1-8 upside, Wilson if you want Weeks 9-18 upside, and Mills if you want Weeks 1-18 upside.
Tier 11
Jacoby Brissett (CLE)
Kenny Pickett (PIT)
Jacoby Brissett will likely be the Browns starting QB for the first 11 games while Deshaun Watson serves his suspension. There is still a chance that the Browns end up bringing in Jimmy Garoppolo, which creates some slight risk in assuming you will get 11+ starts from Brissett.
Kenny Pickett is looking more and more likely to overtake Mitch Trubisky as the Steelers’ starting QB. It might not happen by Week 1, but it should happen in the first half of the season. He is surrounded by above-average pass-catching talent in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. Pickett is a great late-round flier if he falls outside of the top 30.
Takeaway: Target Pickett if you don’t need a QB for the first few weeks but want to stash a potential low-end QB2 option once he does start.
Tier 12
Geno Smith (SEA)
Geno is still the favorite to start Week 1, but nothing is certain beyond that. The Seahawks already know what they have in Geno Smith, but they will likely want to see Drew Lock under center at some point as they search for their new franchise QB in the post-Russell Wilson era.
Takeaway: Avoid Geno Smith, unless you need a potential Week 1 starter.
Tier 13
Deshaun Watson (CLE)
Drew Lock (SEA)
Mitch Trubisky (PIT)
Desmond Ridder (ATL)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
In my initial tiers, I mentioned that I am avoiding Deshaun Watson. That plan remains intact following his 11-game suspension.
All of these QBs could make starts at some point in 2022, but they aren’t part of my draft plans.
Takeaway: Avoid this tier unless absolutely necessary.