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Lions vs Chargers Odds, Pick, Prediction | How to Bet Amon-Ra St. Brown

Lions vs Chargers Odds | NFL Week 10

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Lions vs Chargers odds for NFL Week 10 are tightening up as kickoff nears at SoFi Stadium. The spread is under the key number of 3 as the Lions are -2.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks with a game total over/under of 48.5.

I don’t trust either team to cover in this game. The Lions, who are coming off their bye week, have won five of their last six games. They welcome back running back David Montgomery, who’s been sidelined Week 6 due to a rib injury. The Chargers have won two straight and are a victory away from going over .500 for the first time this season.

I see multiple viable paths in which the over and under could each hit in this intriguing quarterback battle between Jared Goff and Justin Herbert. As a result, I’m focusing on a player prop for my Lions vs Chargers pick. I like the chances of Amon-Ra St. Brown having a field day against the Bolts’ league-worst pass defense.

Lions vs Chargers Prediction

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 83.5 Rec Yards | Play to 86.5” linktext=”Bet St. Brown Instantly With FanDuel QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML445890082&bookId=108&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Lions and Chargers match up statistically:

Lions vs. Chargers DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 5 23
Pass DVOA 6 21
Rush DVOA 5 20
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 8 8
Pass DVOA 8 8
Rush DVOA 20 13

I may be one of the few people who think the Chargers can make a deep run if they shore up their deficiencies. Most paramount is fixing a secondary that’s been torched week in and week out. Until they prove capable, though, I’ll keep backing wideouts to pop off against the Bolts.

In this case, that means backing St. Brown to eclipse 83.5 receiving yards. He’s gone over 100 yards in five of the seven games he’s played this year, which is tied for second most in the league behind only A.J. Brown (six).

St. Brown is firmly among the elite receivers in the NFL, ranking first in catches per game (8.15), second in targets (11.6) and fifth in receiving yards (95.0). He has the sixth-best success rate per game (8.97%); Pro Football Focus ranks him ninth among all wideouts with an 84.0 receiving grade.

Use Action’s BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your Lions vs. Chargers pick.

Bet Detroit vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel

[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”nfl” fullname=”Detroit Lions” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” width=”40″ height=”40″][/teamlogo]

Lions -2.5 (-110)
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”nfl” fullname=”Los Angeles Chargers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” width=”40″ height=”40″][/teamlogo]

Chargers +2.5 (-110)

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Receivers with similar numbers to St. Brown’s have feasted on the Bolts as Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb went off for 215, 149 and 117 yards, respectively. Additionally, while he may not be a wide receiver, Travis Kelce also took advantage of the Chargers’ poor pass defense to the tune of 179 receiving yards.

Brandon Staley came to the Chargers regarded as a defensive guru, but he’s been anything but that over his tenure. While the Bolts were exploitable against the run during his first two years, it’s the passing game that’s been abysmal in 2023. Los Angeles allows the most passing yards per game (286.0) and the fourth most to wide receivers (191.3).

Finally, the schedule makers did the Chargers no favors this week. The Bolts played 2,789.1 miles away on Monday night against the Jets, and it’s hard to imagine a bigger contrast between that and a fresh Lions team off the bye.

It’s an important X-factor to keep in mind, although it’s anyone’s guess exactly how big an impact it will have.

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It’s pretty simple, really. The big guns go off for big games against the Bolts, and I like St. Browns’ chances of following in Hill, Jefferson, Lamb and Kelce’s footsteps.

Ignore the Chargers’ improvements against the pass the last two weeks and chalk it up to facing Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson. Jared Goff may not be Patrick Mahomes, but he’s light years better than who the Bolts faced during their two-game winning streak. Goff should have no problem picking apart the Chargers defense, and that means plenty of opportunities for St. Brown.

Heading into the weekend you could get this anywhere between 83.5 and 86.5, so make sure to shop around before placing any bet.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 83.5 Rec Yards | Play to 86.5” linktext=”Bet St. Brown Instantly With FanDuel QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML445890082&bookId=108&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Ricky Henne

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