If you’re sad about watching the Washington Commanders against the Chicago Bears just a week after we watched that gross Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos game, remember this:
- Carson Wentz is 6-0 on Thursday Night Football.
- Carson Wentz is 3-0 against the Chicago Bears.
- The Bears scored 22 points last week.
Those are some very promising stats for a Thursday Night Football game.
If you’re looking for different angles to gamble on this promising Thursday Night Football game, check out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including some states where mobile sports gambling is not yet available.
Check out my favorite PrizePicks plays for Thursday’s slate.
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Terry McLaurin
Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
So, your quarterback is trash. The Commanders can’t get anything going through the air and rank 28th in both Pass DVOA and Dropback EPA per play. Wentz is getting sacked more than any team in the NFL.
If you were Terry McLaurin, what would you do?
How about cashing over 54.5 receiving yards in four of your five games this season?
For what it’s worth, McLaurin is never short on opportunities. The Commanders throw at the second-highest rate in the league, trailing just the Bills. That’s likely because the Commanders have a horrific offensive line and an even worse run game. The only bright spot on this offense is the collection of wide receivers.
The Commanders are also often digging themselves out of holes the defense puts them in.
Either way, there are loads of opportunities to compile yards in the Washington offense and McLaurin is getting plenty of those opportunities. Nobody has more air yards in the Washington offense than McLaurin and his target share has increased week over week after a tough Week 1.
The Bears are just an average pass defense and they are often exploitable against the deep ball.
McLaurin has a good chance to cook them today.
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Justin Fields
Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
Justin Fields isn’t playing well as a pure quarterback. However, the Bears are figuring out he can be effective in other ways.
Fields has been making plays as he has at least eight rushing attempts in each game this season and has rushed for over 40 yards in three straight contests. Oh, and that doesn’t even include this beautiful play that was called back in last week’s game.
cant sleep knowing justin fields was robbed of this pic.twitter.com/5F9EuXiXlQ
— 🐻 (@bearsbeserious) October 10, 2022
Maybe the reason Fields isn’t effective as a passer is because of his horrendous offensive line. Maybe part of the reason he’s forced to make crazy rushing plays is that he’s constantly under duress.
The Bears’ offensive line has posted the highest adjusted sack rate this season.
Justin Fields is being sacked at a 17% rate. By far highest in the NFL. Nearly double the second worst, Daniel Jones.
That's being sacked nearly once every five a dropbacks.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) October 12, 2022
I don’t expect that to stop this week. The Commanders are poor at many things defensively, but they can pressure the quarterback. The defensive line is top 10 in Line Yards and Washington has the fifth-highest pressure rate in football (27.9%).
Fields is going to be pushed from the pocket early and be running all over the field on Thursday night. That gives us a good betting opportunity.
Additionally, projections love Fields in this spot. I’ve found four different models projecting Fields to go over his rushing yards total:
Action Labs Player Props Tool: 42 Rush Yards
@JonPGH’s Weekly NFL Projections: 45 Rush Yards
Football Outsiders Weekly NFL Projections: 43.7 Rush Yards
Take the value with Fields on Thursday Night.
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