Colts vs. Cowboys Odds, Prediction
| Colts Odds | +10.5 (-115) |
| Cowboys Odds | -10.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Dec. 4 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Channel | NBC |
*Odds via FanDuel as of Sunday morning
Colts vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football fits a historically profitable betting algorithm developed by the Action Network.
The algorithm has gone 356-274-18 (57%) since 2005. That’s over 600 NFL games over a very lengthy sample size. $500 per game bettors would have netted about $29,000 in profit over that time frame.
That’s an annualized 9% return on investment (ROI) over an extensive timeframe.
Some of the algorithm’s main parameters include the opposing team’s win percentage, ATS percentage, ATS margin, the time of season and more.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is much less forgiving in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to profits over a long time horizon.
Sunday Night Football’s Colts vs. Cowboys Prediction
This betting system fades teams that have covered well this season.
These types of teams are due to regress back toward an ATS winning percentage close to 50% as the season progresses — as is the natural law of betting.
The team you’d fade needs to have a good ATS record — but also be blowing teams out against-the-spread. The team to fade needs to have covered by five points or more per game this season.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 7-4 ATS and beat teams ATS by an average of seven points per contest.
It also needs to be October or later in order for these ATS trends to fully calcify.
Teams facing off against these good ATS teams have covered 57% of the time since 2005.
As aforementioned, $500 per game bettors are up $29,000 over that timeframe.
The best price on the market for the Colts’ spread is with PointsBet at Indy +10.5 (-107).
Do keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 35 NFL games per season. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
The best way to make money through this algorithm is to bet on every game that fits these parameters for the rest of the year.
We’ll continue to write about them.
PRO Pick: Colts +10.5 (-107) or better