Betting odds: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -2.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Time: Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV channel: NFL Network
>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: The betting public is very much split on this game, with 51% of tickets on the Broncos at the time of writing (click here for live odds).
Cleveland is getting more than 70% of the cash, though, which has helped move the Browns from +3.5/4 to +2.5. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: From 2003-15, home favorites in prime time games (7 p.m. or later) were 188-185-11 ATS (50.4%) according to our Bet Labs data.
But over the past three seasons, home favorites in prime time have dominated, going 51-37-6 against the spread (58%), including 44-28-4 ATS (61.1%) when the two teams are familiar opponents and are from the same conference. — Evan Abrams
The Broncos’ defense has been its usual self this season, allowing just 21.7 points per game, which is top-10 in the NFL, and in their 13 games, they are 10-3 (77%) to the under. In each of the Broncos’ past five games, they have gone under the total by a margin of 8.3 PPG.
Over the past five seasons, four teams have fit this description: Playing at home + in December or later + on an under streak of five or more games + with at least 75% of their games going under the total. The under is 4-0 in those games, going under the total by 16 PPG. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Broncos rush offense vs. Browns rush defense
Phillip Lindsay averages 5.8 yards per rush, which leads all qualified backs. The rookie has been a revelation for a rush offense that ranks third overall DVOA (Football Outsiders). As a team, the Broncos rank second at 5.2 yards per rush.
The Browns are vulnerable defending the rush, allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season. That ranks 22nd in the NFL and is 20 spots lower than where they finished last season when they allowed 3.4 yards per attempt.
You can attribute this drop in productivity to a few personnel moves in the offseason — which helped improve the pass defense, to be fair.
The advanced metric that sticks out the most with this mismatch: Second Level Rank, which looks at runs between 5-10 yards.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 31st in this category, while Denver ranks in the top five. Expect Lindsay to break numerous runs throughout the day, especially off the edge to exploit the Browns’ weakness at outside linebacker. — Stuckey
Metrics that matter: There is a wide discrepancy in red-zone production between the two opposing quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield has been one of the highest rated quarterbacks inside the 20, going 26-of-41 (60.5%) with 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
On the other end of the spectrum, Case Keenum has been one of the worst, completing only 50% of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
There’s a reason why Cleveland ranks fourth in red zone touchdown percentage, while Denver ranks 17th even with a dominant running game. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Browns
The only Browns players who could miss Saturday’s game are center JC Tretter (ankle), defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (biceps) and cornerback Phillip Gaines (knee). First-round pick Denzel Ward (concussion) has already been ruled out.
The Broncos will have to turn to a few more backups, as cornerbacks Isaac Yiadom (shoulder) and Chris Harris Jr. (leg) are each sidelined, along with outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett (hip).
Defensive end Derek Wolfe (concussion) is questionable for Saturday, but the defense is at least expected to have linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee) and cornerback Tramaine Brock (ribs).
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Nick Chubb has worked as the Browns’ featured running back ever since Carlos Hyde was traded away before Week 7. All Chubb has done during this seven-game stretch is work as the overall PPR RB6, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara.
Chubb had a tough time getting going during the past two weeks against the Texans (No. 2 in rush DVOA) and Panthers (No. 8), but Sunday’s matchup vs. the Broncos’ injury-riddled No. 11-ranked defense isn’t shaping up as an insurmountable obstacle.
The Browns’ featured back costs $6,800 on DraftKings and carries a huge 29.4-point projected ceiling. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Phillip Lindsay over 82.5 rushing yards (-118)
Stuckey indirectly made a great case for this above.
This line is probably 10-15% lower than it should be due to some recency bias. Lindsay rushed for just 30 yards last week against the 49ers, but don’t be fooled by that blip on the radar.
The last time the rookie faced a bad rushing defense like the Browns came in Week 13, when Lindsay ran for 157 yards against the Bengals.
Lindsay is this offense’s best chance at moving the ball consistently on Saturday night — and the Broncos know it. Expect him to see the rock early and often. — Scott T. Miller
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.