Sharp NFL bettors and big money are fading one offense in particular for Chiefs vs. Chargers this Sunday, producing two picks in PRO.
The Chiefs face off against the Chargers at SoFi Stadium, marking the first division game of the year for Kansas City. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET.
The Chiefs, led by star quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce, enter the game with a perfect 3-0 record. Meanwhile, the Chargers, helmed by first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, stand at 2-1.
The Chiefs are favorites, with the spread favoring them at -7.5 and the over/under set at 40 points. As the anticipation builds for this AFC West showdown, bettors are keen to dissect the odds and find the best betting angles.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Picks, Predictions
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- Chiefs vs. Chargers spread: Chiefs -7.5
- Chiefs vs. Chargers over/under: 40 (o-110, u-110)
- Chiefs vs. Chargers moneyline: Chiefs: -365, Chargers +285
Spread
Mahomes and the Chiefs are -7.5 on the spread vs. the Chargers this Sunday
Over/Under
The over/under is set at 40 points, with each side marked at -110.
Moneyline
The Chiefs are -365 to win outright, the Chargers are listed at +285.
Player Prop
Scanning PRO Props, one prediction holding a minor edge is Chargers WR Ladd McConkey to score a touchdown at any point of the game. His odds to score an anytime touchdown are +380 at FanDuel, but we think the fair price should be more like +334.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
Both the spread and over/under feature PRO insights converging on multiple predictions.
Point Spread
Our analysis indicates that 100% of our top NFL experts are locking in the Chargers to cover the spread. Despite the Chiefs’ impressive start, this expert consensus signals value in LAC +7.5.
Tracking sharp money, there’s a clear indication that professionals are banking on the Chargers, too. Given their market-moving influence, this sharp action suggests a closer game than the spread implies.
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227417″ date=”20240929″ week=”4″ seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
Total
50% of the money is on the Under, with only 37% of the total bets. This discrepancy often signifies sharper, more informed bets backing the under.
We’ve also tracked sharp money coming in on the under.
Odds to Win
The Chargers are drawing 23% of the money and just 7% of the bets, indicating fewer but larger wagers on an upset.
Our PRO Pick
After analyzing PRO insights, two picks stick out: The Chargers against the spread at +7.5 and under 40 points. The market is betting against Kansas City’s offense, which has yet to truly break out this season, in a tough matchup against Harbaugh’s defense.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Trends
- Mahomes’ 3-10 1H ATS mark is the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL over the last 13 games, ahead of only Bryce Young (0-9 1H ATS).
Chiefs vs. Chargers Weather
[gameforecast league=”nfl” gameid=”227417″ date=”20240929″][/gameforecast]
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