PRO Report shows a clear read on the Buccaneers vs. Falcons outcome, ultimately revealing three big picks for Thursday Night Football.
It’s a divisional, prime-time matchup when Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers square off against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Both teams are coming off impressive victories, with the Buccaneers defeating the Eagles 33-16 and the Falcons narrowly edging out the Saints 26-24. Set to kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the game promises not only thrilling action on a quick turnaround, but also intriguing betting opportunities in multiple markets.
The Buccaneers hold a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread. The Falcons, meanwhile, are listed as the favorites for Week 5.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Picks, Predictions
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- Buccaneers vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -1.5
- Buccaneers vs. Falcons over/under: 44
- Buccaneers vs. Falcons moneyline: Buccaneers +114, Falcons -134
Spread
The Falcons are favored by 1.5 points. It’s the second straight game Atlanta’s listed as a small home favorite.
Over/Under
The over/under is set at 44 points, and even down to 43.5 in some shops.
Moneyline
The moneyline is Falcons -134, Buccaneers +114.
Player Prop
PRO Projections give Falcons WR Drake London an 8% chance to score two touchdowns. Odds are +1400, implying a 6.7% chance.
It’s only a +1.3% edge. PRO Projections recommend a 3.5% or better edge when tailing, so this one doesn’t exactly meet the criteria.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction
The spread, over/under and moneyline are all actionable picks for Thursday Night Football.
Point Spread
PRO Report reveals an alignment on the spread — and it’s the Buccaneers plus the points. Sharp Action and Big Money are both flowing on the Bucs.
Both the public and big-money bets are in step. Tampa’s bringing in 87% of the money and 74% of the total bets to cover.
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Total
Big Money and Sharp Action are also activated on the under. The over’s attracting 83% of the tickets, but the number’s moving down from open. There’s a bit more money favoring a low-scoring game compared to general bet slips.
Odds to Win
The Buccaneers are capturing 66% of the total money but only 31% of the total bets. Sharp bettors see value in betting the underdogs to win outright.
Our PRO Picks
Based on the comprehensive analysis provided by PRO insights, the top betting recommendations for this game are the Buccaneers spread; the Buccaneers vs. Falcons under; and the Buccaneers moneyline.
The best price on the total is under 44 (-105) at Caesars. FanDuel, meanwhile, is hanging the best moneyline price on the Buccaneers (+114).
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Weather
[gameforecast league=”nfl” gameid=”227422″ date=”20241003″][/gameforecast]
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends
Here are some neat trends courtesy of betting researcher Evan Abrams:
➤Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 14-27 ATS playing indoor games, including 1-10 ATS in his last 11 games indoors.
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 6-18-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of the Seahawks and Saints.
➤Thursday home teams are just 39-52 ATS since 2019, including 35-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
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