Betting odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -7
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
The Bucs looked like a real disaster on defense to start the season. They allowed Drew Brees to complete 82% of his passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns en route to a 40-point performance in their Week 1 matchup against the Saints.
Then what could have been a result of poor matchup turned into a trend.
The Bucs allowed an average of 34.6 points over their first five games. They ranked last in net yards per attempt (8.59) and last in yards per play (6.89) over that same span. The only thing Tampa Bay was doing effectively was stopping the run, where the team was permitting just 3.76 yards per carry, good for fifth in the NFL.
Then after Week 6, the Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith and promoted linebackers coach Mark Duffner. Since then, they’ve been much better on defense, allowing just 25.6 points per game and 6.28 net yards per pass attempt (15th).
So what is Tampa Bay doing differently?
For starters, the Bucs have made some major changes in personnel. They’ve utilized a dime defensive package a lot more under Duffner than they had under Smith.
Traditional “base” personnel typically employs four defensive backs (two corners and two safeties). “Nickel” is when a fifth defensive back comes in — a personnel that’s growing more and more in popularity every year. “Dime” adds a sixth defensive back, meaning that the defense is likely playing with only one linebacker on the field.

For the Bucs, that one linebacker has been Lavonte David, who is one of the league’s best coverage linebackers. Pro Football Focus grades him as the 11th best in coverage. Tampa Bay has employed safety Andrew Adams as the second “linebacker” in these sets.
This package, which has been used heavily on third down, has allowed the Bucs to make massive improvements in pass defense. They’ve gone from allowing 8.44 yards allowed per pass attempt on third down to 6.83 since firing Smith after Week 6.
The Bucs also lost two of their starting linebackers, Kwon Alexander and Jack Cichy, for the season due to injury. In their places, Tampa Bay has started Devante Bond on the outside and Adarius Taylor in the middle. Both linebackers are on the smaller side at less than 240 pounds. Taylor is incredibly small, weighing in at just 230 pounds. To get an idea of just how small that is, only three middle linebackers have been drafted at 230 or fewer pounds in the past five drafts.
With smaller players on the field — Adams is 201 pounds in the box on third down, by the way — the Bucs have been gashed on the ground. They’ve allowed 5.28 yards per carry since Week 7, the fourth-worst mark in the league.
Not surprisingly, Bond, Taylor and Adams have all been terrible in run support. Taylor ranks 80th out of 84 qualifying linebackers in run defense. Bond ranks outside of the top 95 of all linebackers. Adams does not qualify yet, but only one safety in the entire NFL has a worse run defense grade.
The Cowboys are a terrible matchup for Tampa Bay. They’re eighth in rushing rate and are among the top five in rushing rate on third-and-7 or fewer yards according to Sharp Football Stats. They’re also ninth in yards per carry and should be getting Zack Martin back on the offensive line.
Ezekiel Elliott is a must-play is a must-play in daily fantasy. He’s $9,000 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel despite averaging 30.4 and 24.7 points respectively over his past six contests. Running backs against the Bucs have an average plus/minus of 6.99 on DraftKings (priced over $4,000) and 7.21 on FanDuel (priced over $6,000) since the coaching change.
Elliott should pummel the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Teams coming off of a shutout loss (like the Cowboys) have gone 53-41-3 (56.4%) against the spread since 2003, according to our data at Bet Labs. Given the trend and the matchup, I feel comfortable taking Dallas at the current line of -7 (see live odds here).