Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: The Elite Moneyline, Against-the-Spread Trend Since 2018 (Thursday, Dec. 1)

There are two betting trends developed by Action Network that have yielded elite returns since 2018.

While this has been a relatively small sample size — our betting algorithms typically glean data from 2005 onwards — it’s enough to present value for Thursday Night Football’s Bills vs. Patriots.

The first betting system targets the moneyline and has returned 27% on investment for every dollar spent since 2018. A $500 bettor would be up $8,500 in total if they had bet each of the 63 games that have fit this system over the last five seasons.

For the against-the-spread (ATS) trend, a $500 bettor would have returned $3,250 in profit.

Both systems align with one team’s spread and moneyline, under very specific parameters that only target about 12 NFL games per season.

Elite Moneyline, Against-the-Spread Since 2008 for Bills vs. Patriots

The betting system targets home underdogs that face off against good teams.

A “good team” is classified by our algorithm as a team with a 70% win percentage or better.

The home underdog in question needs to have performed well against-the-spread throughout the season, as well. That indicates the market has consistently undervalued the team throughout the year. “Performed well” is measured by an ATS record of 51% or more.

All those parameters fit the Patriots’ spread and moneyline on Thursday night.

The Patriots are 6-4-1 ATS this season (60%). Meanwhile, the Bills are 8-3 SU (72%).

The best price on the market for New England is with DraftKings at +170 and with FanDuel at +3.5 (-104).

PRO Picks: Patriots +170 or better | Patriots +3.5 (-104) or better