Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
| Bills Odds | +1.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | -1.5 |
| Over/Under | 54 |
| Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
The real AFC Championship Game is set to kickoff on Sunday night between the Bills and Chiefs (sorry, Titans and Bengals fans).
And while more than 30 million Americans will tune in to watch this contest, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value.
Yes, normally you should target games of lower magnitude when making value bets. But 1.) What type of person bets exclusively on meaningless games? and 2.) The Action Network’s proprietary tracking data indicates that there may be great value here, despite the volume of bettors.
Plus, this game is going to be lights out.
Read further to see where the smart money is heading for this titanic Divisional Round matchup on Sunday night.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Smart Money, Sharp, Big Money Action
The smart money is all over the Bills for this contest.
Buffalo is the No. 1 team remaining, according to the advanced metrics. They have the No. 1 defense in the NFL and the offense is clicking on all cylinders.
And for the entire regular season, the Bills did exactly what you want true Super Bowl contenders to do: Win every game in dominant fashion.
Buffalo has won every game this season by double digits, including in last week’s dismantling of the Patriots.
Yes, Buffalo has had some curious losses to the Jaguars and Steelers, as well as a 41-15 drubbing at the hands of the Colts.
But if the Titans and Packers’ losses from yesterday are any indication, limping throughout the season with a ton of wins in close games isn’t a good predictor of playoff success.
The public seems to disagree with the smart money — about 57% of the retail bettors are on the Chiefs to cover by two or more points.
That presents an amazing opportunity for you, the reader, to fade the public.
The Chiefs have the pedigree, and that’s been the driving force behind their line at -1.5 — besides home-field advantage.
However, Kansas City has among the worst defenses in the NFL. Bills QB Josh Allen is on a roll and has quality at every offensive position.
And while the Chiefs offense has finally found their groove after an early-season slump, the smart money expects Buffalo’s top-ranked defense (by far) to hold the fort against an iteration of Patrick Mahomes that has put his team into more precarious situations than normal this season.
Roughly 81% of the smart money bettors hammered the Bills spread when it opened +2.5 last week. That action has pounded the line down to a consensus of Bills +1.5, and some books are even as low as Bills +1.
At Bills +1.5 or +1, you might be more inclined to take the moneyline. The best price on the market as of Sunday afternoon is with FanDuel, at +106.
Smart Money Pick: Bills +1.5 or better (spread). Bills +105 or better (moneyline)
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