A.J. Brown Player Props: Expert Pick for Packers vs Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions

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A.J. Brown, one of the best wide receivers in the game, is having a phenomenal season with his new team. Trust me, I understand this bet isn’t for the faint of heart, but there are a few reasons why I’ll be on it tonight:

• He’s only cleared this in two of nine games this season.
• The Packers are a run-funnel defense. They rank 12th in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run. Look for the Eagles to exploit this and lean on their ground game.
• Green Bay blitzes at the highest rate in the league. Brown’s target share drops from 29.6% to 27.3% when Jalen Hurts faces a blitz.

• The Packers play zone at the 11th highest rate in the league. Brown plays much better against man, as seen by his 3.49 Y/RR compared to 1.53 against zone.
• Green Bay plays at a very slow pace. As a result, it does a good job of limiting the number of plays the opposition can run. Opponents have averaged 59.7 plays against them, which is the fourth fewest. Look for them to attack the Eagles’ run-funnel defense and keep Philly’s offense on the sideline. That has a much bigger impact on a stat like receptions.

This matchup sets up much better for DeVonta Smith and the Eagles’ rushing attack.

I’m projecting Brown closer to five receptions and have him staying under 60% of the time. I would bet this down to -130.

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