NFL Week 7 wraps up tonight with a pair of Monday Night Football games: Ravens vs. Buccaneers and Chargers vs. Cardinals. Let’s jump into my favorite Monday Night Football picks, which include a QB prop and a first half total.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”First Half Over 24.5 (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png” homename=”Tampa Bay Buccaneers” homeslug=”tampa-bay-buccaneers” date=”Monday, Oct. 21″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”ABC/ESPN” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
These teams have combined to average 53.8 total points per game and 52.8 expected points per game.
Just looking at the offenses alone, they come to score 33.3 first half points per game, but just 25.4 second half points per game.
Even adjusting for each team’s time of possession (combined 63.7 minutes, so we’d need to adjust down to 60), I’d still get this game going over the full game total.
However, there are some massive second half pace and run/pass split implications based off the game script, and with the first half total at 24.5 — less than half of the full game total of 50 — I’d rather just take the first half over.
That’s especially the case considering I lean toward Baltimore -3.5 in terms of a spread play, and the Ravens leading would slow this game down in the second half.
There are also a couple of matchup factors to consider. The Bucs prefer to throw and Baltimore is a pass funnel — 21st vs. the pass and 3rd vs. the rush by DVOA.
Likewise, the Bucs play the sixth-lowest rate of man coverage. Lamar Jackson has a 5.9 ANY/A against man coverage, compared to 10.5 vs. all other coverages (zone, prevent, red zone).
Pick: First Half Over 24.5 (-110)
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+175)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Chargers” awayslug=”los-angeles-chargers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” homename=”Arizona Cardinals” homeslug=”arizona-cardinals” date=”Monday, Oct. 21″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN+” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
Four of the five opponents the Chargers have faced this season have allowed at or lower than league average passing touchdowns per game. Justin Herbert had one passing touchdown against all four of them.
The other team he faced, the Carolina Panthers, allowed the third-most passing touchdowns per game, and Herbert threw two.
Tonight’s opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, allow the sixth-most passing touchdowns per game and the second-highest completion percentage and yards per attempt.
The Cardinals are a bit of a pass funnel, too. They’re 29th in DVOA against the pass and 14th against the run.
Arizona is somewhat unlucky based on the Luck Rankings, and if the Cardinals cover it’s more likely that the Chargers pass, so Herbert can go over this number that way.
However, if the Chargers take the lead it could very well be through a couple of passing scores against this bad Arizona pass defense. So that makes this prop relatively impervious to the game script.
Pick: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+175)
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