Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2023.
This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit.
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers
Fantasy TE Rankings & Tiers
Note: I’m basing my strategy around half-PPR, 12-team leagues with a positional format that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE. Every league has its own quirks, which makes it impossible to cover them all. Thus, I’m focusing on the most common league type.
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Tier 1
Travis Kelce
Showing no signs of slowing down, Travis Kelce set career highs in targets (152), receptions (110) and TDs (12) in his age-33 season.
There remains a substantial gap between Kelce and the rest of the tight ends, which gives him the best odds to be the leading scorer at his position — something he has done in four of the last five seasons. It’s also why he should go as high as third overall.
Takeaway: Target Kelce as soon as the third overall pick. If he drops further in Round 1, even better.
Tier 2
Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews is coming off a “down” year in which he finished as the TE5.
He is still clearly in a tier of his own above the non-Kelce TEs, but it’s worth pointing out he’s much closer to T.J. Hockenson (24-point gap) than he is Kelce (56-point gap). The Ravens also upgraded their WR room by adding Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor. However, Andrews’ overall volume should be way up under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, which could help offset increased target competition.
It’s difficult to go into a draft and seek out Andrews. You would likely be in the 3rd-6th slot and grab him in Round 2, which is when you still might have access to a top-three QB, Garrett Wilson or Tony Pollard. Any one of those players would be tough to pass up, but if they are all off the board and Andrews is still sitting there at or after the Round 2-3 turn, that’s the time to grab him.
At that point, you would likely be pairing him with two stud WRs or a stud WR + a Tier 2 RB.
Takeaway: Don’t reach for Andrews, but target him around the Round 2-3 turn if the top-three QBs, Garrett Wilson and Tony Pollard are off the board.
Tier 3
T.J. Hockenson
T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings midseason last year and thrived, posting the TE3 score from Weeks 9-18. Hockenson’s underlying metrics with the Vikes were eerily similar to Travis Kelce’s. Thus, he’s the lone player in Tier 3.
Routes run rate
Kelce: 83%
Hockenson: 84%
Target rate per route run
Kelce: 25%
Hockenson: 24%
Targets/game
Kelce: 8.9
Hockenson: 8.6
Average Depth of Target (ADOT)
Kelce: 7.3
Hockenson: 7.5
Fantasy managers with the 9th-12th picks are the most likely ones to land Hockenson.
Managers with those picks likely won’t have access to the top-two tight ends — it’s unlikely Kelce drops that much while taking Andrews in that range would be a reach. Therefore, Hockenson is your real chance to lock in a top-three TE.
Teams able to lock up Bijan Robinson/Saquon Barkley along with a stud WR in the first couple of rounds should be in the market for Hockenson near the end of the third round, especially if it looks like a Deebo Samuel/Cooper Kupp type will make it back to you in Round 4.
Takeaway: Target Hockenson at ADP in the Round 3-4 turn, but only if you already locked up a RB and a WR in the first couple of rounds. This is also when the RBs get a bit dicey; the only one I would take over Hockenson in this range is Joe Mixon.
Tier 4
George Kittle
Kyle Pitts
Darren Waller
George Kittle was the TE1 over the final six games last year, which also happened to be when Brock Purdy took over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s great news for Kittle that Purdy will be the 49ers‘ starting QB this season, when healthy.
It’s worth noting Deebo Samuel was out for three of those six games, which clearly gave Kittle a boost. It’s going to be tough for Kittle to offer a high weekly floor with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo all demanding targets. Kittle’s volatility makes him a bit more valuable in Best Ball formats than H2H leagues.
Kyle Pitts is possibly the most frustrating player in fantasy football. He is clearly one of the more talented players at the position, but he’s hurt both by the Falcons‘ run-heavy offense and low percentage of down-field targets.
Pitts was targeted on 26.5% of his routes, but only caught 50% of his targets due to an ADot of 13.7 yards. Unless the Falcons start scheming up more targets for Pitts underneath, he’s going to be more of a boom-bust, mid-range TE1 option most weeks.
Darren Waller will likely be the top target in the Giants offense this season. However, it’s an offense that won’t offer many passing yards or TDs to go around, which could hurt his ceiling.
Waller is one of the more injury prone TEs as he heads into what will be his age-31 season. That’s the main reason I would hesitate to take him as the sixth TE off the board, but he’s been slipping to TE7 in recent drafts, and that’s when I think it makes sense to pull the trigger.
Takeaway: I wouldn’t go out of my way to land these TEs, but if either one falls outside of ADP — and Justin Fields and Tiers 5-6 at WR are all gone — that would be the time to target this group.
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Tier 5
Evan Engram
Dallas Goedert
Pat Freiermuth
Dallas Goedert is being drafted near the top of Tier 4, which is a mistake in my opinion.
Last season, I said Goedert had top-five upside in his first full season without Zach Ertz. And while he ended up finishing as the TE5, I still think that’s likely his ceiling. What most people are overlooking is the fact that D’Andre Swift is going to draw a much higher target share than we’ve seen from other RBs in this scheme. A lot of those targets will be coming at Goedert’s expense.
Pat Freiermuth, who typically goes much later in drafts, is probably the last TE I would be willing to spend top-10-round draft capital on. Once he’s off the board, you are likely going to take a flier on someone later in the draft, and if that player doesn’t pan out, stream the position until you land one for good.
Freiermuth had solid underlying metrics last season, averaging a 75-80% routes run rate most weeks with a 23% target rate. He would benefit a ton from a potential Kenny Pickett year-two breakout.
Takeaway: Fade Goedert at ADP; target Freiermuth at ADP.
Tier 6
David Njoku
Tyler Higbee
Dalton Schultz
Greg Dulcich
Chigoziem Okonkwo
These are the late-round targets you can use as a TE1 to begin the season. It’s important to not get too attached to them as someone could pop early in the season and become a priority add on the waiver wire.
These TEs are still the best bets to be those types of waiver-wire heroes and provide you with a solid backup plan if you end up missing out on a TE from Tiers 1-5.
My favorites to target are Tyler Higbee and Greg Dulcich.
The days of the Rams having a solid WR trio of Cooper Kupp/Brandin Cooks/Odell Beckham/Robert Woods are over. After Kupp, their WR depth chart is fairly thin, which means Higbee seems like a lock to be Stafford’s No. 2 target.
The Rams defense will likely take a big step back this season, forcing them into more pass-heavy game scripts, which is another reason why I love getting Higbee late.
Dulcich is the other late tight end I love; if you recall from my weekly tiers last year, I was raving about him once he was able to make his debut in Week 6.
Despite missing most of training camp and preseason, as well as the first five weeks of the regular season, he was able to post the TE10 score from Weeks 6-16 when he was healthy. That was despite Russell Wilson’s struggles — 16 of Dulcich’s 55 targets were uncatchable.
New head coach Sean Payton should be able to get Wilson somewhat back on track, which will only help Dulcich’s fantasy value.
Takeaway: Target Higbee and Dulcich at ADP.
Tier 7
Cole Kmet
Dalton Kincaid
Irv Smith Jr.
Gerald Everett
In deeper leagues, where all Tier 6 options will be taken, Tier 7 presents your last best chance to land a potential low-end TE1.
Dalton Kincaid isn’t a slam dunk, but he has the clearest path to becoming a TE1 as a rookie as he could end up being Josh Allen’s second or third target.
The Bills are likely going to use more 2TE personnel with Dawson Knox/Kincaid on the field at the same time, with Kincaid lining up as a slot receiver. Kincaid was the best pass-catching tight end in this year’s draft class and is worth a flier at ADP.
Takeaway: Target Kincaid at ADP.
Tier 8
Juwan Johnson
Dawson Knox
Taysom Hill
Hayden Hurst
Hunter Henry
Mike Gesicki
Sam LaPorta
Cade Otton
Tyler Conklin
Any one of these TEs could be a low-end TE1, but each needs a few things to line up perfectly for that to happen.
Taysom Hill stands out as the best flier in this tier. While he may only average about one reception per game, he is the most unique “TE” in fantasy history as he will generate most of his points as a rushing QB, specifically in the red zone.
Hill has a wide range of outcomes, which makes him the perfect late-round pick in deep leagues.
Sam LaPorta is the other rookie TE worth targeting as the Lions drafted him in the second round to be their T.J. Hockenson replacement. There is enough uncertainty behind Amon-Ra St. Brown that he could emerge as Jared Goff’s second or third target.
Tyler Conklin is also a sneaky target late in drafts as he could end up being one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite receivers, especially in the red zone. That’s his path to TE1 value.
Takeaway: Target Hill, LaPorta and Conklin at ADP.
