Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2023.
This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit.
The 2023 NFL season is rapidly approaching, which means fantasy football drafts are getting underway. That of course leaves us with the age-old question, “Who should I draft at quarterback?”
My draft strategy for the QB position varies based on the league type.
For season-long head-to-head formats where you only start one QB, the position itself comes with a high floor already baked in: the waiver wire. At any given time, you will have more than a dozen starting QBs available as potential one-week starters and can easily find a QB2 (sometimes a QB1) option.
That’s why it’s often a smart strategy to wait as long as possible to draft a QB, and when you do finally target a QB, go for the most upside possible.
No other position gives you that sort of safety net. I dive into my fantasy QB rankings below, including my best advice when it comes to drafting guys in each tier.
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
| » Click here to download a PDF copy « |
Tier 1
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes
Jalen Hurts
Josh Allen finished as the QB2 last season, snapping a streak of two straight seasons as the overall QB1. However, due to the potentially life-threatening injury to Damar Hamlin, the NFL postponed the Bills vs. Bengals game and never rescheduled it. Had they played that game in full, it’s likely Allen would have finished as the overall QB1 for the third straight season.
There has been some chatter about the Bills wanting to dial back on Allen’s rush attempts this season. While that may end up being the case, it would be malpractice for them to take away that part of his game fully. I am projecting him for about 200 fewer rushing yards this season, and he is still coming in as my QB1. Allen still offers the ideal blend of passing/rushing upside.
Despite losing his top WR in Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes took the crown as the overall QB1 in fantasy last year. The Chiefs’ WR depth chart may actually end up being worse this year if Kadarius Toney can’t stay healthy, Skyy Moore doesn’t have a Year 2 breakout, and Rashee Rice struggles as a rookie. The good news: Travis Kelce has shown zero signs of slowing down entering his age-34 season.
The Kansas City passing attack will still flow through Kelce, which should take pressure off an inexperienced WR group. Mahomes is arguably the safest bet at the position, and I can’t fault anyone for taking him as the first QB off the board.
Jalen Hurts averaged the most points per game last season. Unfortunately, he missed Weeks 16-17, which could not be worse timing considering that’s fantasy playoffs time. That’s sort of the underlying risk you take on when you have a QB who rushes as much as Hurts does.
The NFL will allow the “tush push” again this season, which is the controversial QB sneak play where the Eagles have two and sometimes three players push Hurts forward. Having this play available to Hurts means he’s likely to rush for 10 or more TDs for a third straight season. Hurts might actually be the slight favorite to end up as the overall QB1, but he has a slightly lower floor given the added injury risk compared to Allen or Mahomes. Either way, I can’t argue with Hurts going as a top-three QB taken off the board, which is why I consider him part of Tier 1.
_InlineAdBlock=3
Tier 2
Lamar Jackson
Justin Fields
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Lamar Jackson will have the best supporting cast of his career in 2023. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor in the offseason, and Rashod Bateman will be fully healthy heading into the new season after an injury-plagued 2022 season limited him to six games.
New Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken will likely make this a more pass-heavy offense but we can still bank on Jackson to rack up plenty of rushing stats, so he makes sense to be the fourth QB selected in most drafts. The obvious downside to drafting Jackson this early is the fact that he’s missed 11 games over the past two seasons. In 1QB formats, I’m more willing to ignore the obvious risk and invest in his upside. In 2QB/Superflex formats where it’s more valuable to have your QB play in all 17 games, I would lean toward Burrow at QB4.
In terms of median projections, I still have Burrow and Herbert ranked slightly ahead of Justin Fields. However, Fields has a wider range of outcomes and has a better chance of finishing as the QB1 overall. I believe that makes him warrant being the fifth QB taken off the board as a result.
Last season, Fields finished as the QB5 in points per game, despite having one of the worst supporting casts in the league. He should be even better in Year 3, especially after the Bears added D.J. Moore to the WR room. We have seen big free-agent signings (like Moore) catapult Josh Allen (with Stefon Diggs) and Jalen Hurts (with A.J. Brown) into elite fantasy options in their third season. Fields could be next on that list.
Joe Burrow might not have the same rushing upside as Jackson or Fields, but he is probably the second-most likely QB (behind Mahomes) to have a season of 50+ passing touchdowns. Burrow (26 years old) will be entering his prime in Year 4 and is paired with the best young duo of WRs in the game in Ja’Marr Chase (23) and Tee Higgins (24).
The sky really is the limit for Burrow this year and as I mentioned earlier, I am not opposed to selecting Burrow as the fourth QB off the board. It’s also worth pointing out that he was much more willing to use his legs last season (a full season removed from his 2020 ACL tear). He had either 25+ yards rushing and/or a rushing TD in half of starts last season. He offers more rushing stats than people realize and has one of the highest ceilings as a passer this season. Burrow has the best floor/ceiling combo in Tier 2.
Note: This ranking is assuming Burrow is healthy for Week 1 after suffering a calf strain on Thursday, July 27.
Justin Herbert is coming off a disappointing season where he finished as the QB11 despite playing all 17 games. It’s easy to forgive him for the down year, considering he only had both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for four full games. The Chargers spent a first-round pick on WR Quentin Johnston, which should help bolster their pass-catching depth and cause less of a drop-off if/when Allen or Williams miss time going forward. New OC Kellen Moore could bring a faster-paced, more aggressive downfield passing attack to the Chargers, which could help unlock a career year for Herbert in his fourth season.
Tier 3
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence followed up a disappointing rookie season that saw him register a 12:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a 25:8 mark in Year 2. This wasn’t surprising, considering the Jaguars spent a ton of money to upgrade their WR/TE rooms and brought in a competent coaching staff, led by Doug Pederson.
Lawrence remains one of the better young QBs in the game and will get another upgrade this season with Calvin Ridley added to the mix. I view him in a tier of his own because while he might not have the same upside as the Tier 2 guys, he’s clearly well ahead of everyone in Tier 4.
Tier 4
Deshaun Watson
Kirk Cousins
Geno Smith
Dak Prescott
Deshaun Watson was expected to have a bit of rust after missing 28 straight regular-season games, but he was one of the worst QBs in the league last season. He ranked 37th among 40 QBs with 130+ pass attempts last year in EPA per dropback. It’s fair to assume Watson will bounce back this season, especially with the Browns continuing to add weapons in the passing game after trading for Elijah Moore and drafting Cedric Tillman. However, there is still the risk of Watson not regaining his form. At QB9, he requires enough draft capital that I’d rather wait a bit later on to roll the dice on the position.
Kirk Cousins has arguably the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson. The Vikings also traded for talented TE T.J. Hockenson and spent a first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison. Cousins has a ton of talent surrounding him and the Vikings will likely remain pass-heavy in 2023, making him a very high-floor play. He offers the most value in 2QB/Superflex formats where it’s critical to have a high-floor option who will likely play all 17 games.
Geno Smith was one of the biggest surprises of 2022 as he had a career year in his age-32 season and finished as the QB5. The Seahawks appear to be all-in on him after giving him a three-year deal, not drafting a rookie QB and using their first-round pick on WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
I like the idea of drafting Smith late in drafts in 1QB leagues because he has an easy opening four-game stretch against the Rams, Lions, Panthers and Giants. All four teams finished outside the top 20 in DVOA against the pass. If Smith struggles early, I would consider cutting bait and opting to stream the position. He gives you some nice flexibility to eventually stream the position or get a solid QB1 option for cheap late in drafts.
Dak Prescott will be losing TE Dalton Schultz, but he gains WR Brandin Cooks. You could argue it’s a slight upgrade overall, but it’s Mike McCarthy calling plays this season after Kellen Moore was let go. I am worried about the pace/play volume potentially going down since McCarthy has made it clear he wants to run the football more. It’s enough of a concern that we probably need to view Prescott more as a fringe QB1/streamer option as opposed to an every-week QB1. I’m not a fan of taking him inside the top 10 quarterbacks as I think it’s better to wait on the position and take a flier on someone who has more upside.
Tier 5
Daniel Jones
Aaron Rodgers
Tua Tagovailoa
Anthony Richardson
Russell Wilson
Jared Goff
Brian Daboll was able to help unlock Daniel Jones’ best season as he finished as the QB9 last year. The Giants have also upgraded both the WR and TE rooms by adding Darren Waller, Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt, and they have about 98 other slot WRs heading into training camp. However, the time to invest in Jones was probably last season when he was being drafted outside of the top 25. You typically need to take Jones inside the top 13 in order to land him this season, but I don’t think he has the upside or consistency to feel comfortable taking him there. He also sits atop a pretty large Tier 5, which is why I’d rather wait and try to get a QB once a couple of these guys are off the board.
Aaron Rodgers is another QB I’m typically avoiding from this tier. We have seen (potential) HOF QBs change teams late in their career and have some of their best seasons (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford) and we have seen it backfire (Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson). I’m guessing Rodgers will be somewhere in the middle. He certainly gets an upgrade in pass catchers, mainly due to Garrett Wilson, who gives Rodgers a legit No. 1 WR to throw to. However, the Jets’ offensive line is a bit of a drop-off from the Packers, and the Jets defense will prevent them from getting into many pass-heavy game scripts. It seems like a slight upgrade for Rodgers while being a massive upgrade for the Jets offense as a whole.
Tua Tagovailoa broke out in Year 3 and was the QB10 in points per game last season, thanks in large part to the new scheme under head coach Mike McDaniel and the addition of Tyreek Hill. However, Tagovailoa ended up missing time due to concussions, and he’s at risk of risking multiple games (if not more) if he was to suffer another one in the future. It makes Tagovailoa a boom/bust option in the QB1/2 range because he could easily post top-10 numbers if he was able to play all 17 games, but he carries more risk than any other QB in this range. It’s also worth noting that both Hill and Jaylen Waddle were healthy for all 17 games last season. If either misses time, it would really hinder the Dolphins’ passing attack as they lack quality depth at WR/TE beyond Hill/Waddle. Tagovailoa would likely be more of a mid-range QB2 if either stud WR were to miss time.
Anthony Richardson has the widest range of outcomes for any QB being taken inside the top 25. He’s certainly a work in progress as a passer, and it could take him a couple of seasons to really hit his potential, similar to Hurts. Luckily enough, he landed on the Colts who will be coached by Shane Steichen, who helped develop Jalen Hurts the past few seasons in Philadelphia.
Richardson is arguably the best raw athlete to play the position and will be more than capable of racking up a ton of rushing stats as a rookie. Relying on his legs will help allow him to mask his weaknesses as a passer and be a consistent scorer for fantasy purposes. The main reason Indy was the best possible landing spot for him is that he is much more likely to play 10 or more games as a rookie, maybe even starting Week 1 since he will only need to leapfrog Gardner Minshew. Had Richardson ended up in Seattle or Tennessee (two other teams that could have drafted him), he would have had a much tougher time seeing action as a rookie.
Richardson has top-10 upside as soon as he becomes the starter, so I think it makes sense to take a flier on him in the QB16 range as he will likely be starting by Weeks 4-5 and possibly even by Week 1.
Russell Wilson had a disaster of a season with the Broncos, but he still finished as the QB16. I expect Wilson and the entire Broncos offense to bounce back under Sean Payton, making them a good team to buy low on in fantasy. In fact, after Nathaniel Hackett was fired following Week 16, Wilson posted the top fantasy score at the position over those final two weeks. Wilson could end up being a steal in this range in 2QB/Superflex formats.
_InlineAdBlock=3
Tier 6
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford followed up his career year in 2021 with a season to forget in 2022. He dealt with a nagging elbow injury from the start of the season and was eventually shut down in Week 12 due to a spinal contusion. None of these injuries are expected to impact him to start the 2023 season, so we should reasonably forecast him to be closer to 100% health this year.
The Rams defense will likely take a huge step back this season and force the offense into more pass-heavy game scripts, which could help elevate Stafford’s weekly ceiling. I’m OK with targeting him in this range in 2QB/Superflex formats.
Tier 7
Bryce Young
Derek Carr
Jordan Love
Kenny Pickett
Bryce Young ended up being the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, for good reason. He had an extremely productive career at Alabama and possesses a handful of skills that will translate well in the NFL. Young is very good at processing the defense, evades pressure well and has good decision-making skills. The main concern is his size (5-foot-10, 204 pounds) and while that may get him compared to Kyler Murray often, he probably won’t rely on his scrambling ability as much as he is a more polished passer.
I think Young could end up being more of a Murray/Russell Wilson hybrid. While he has a below-average supporting cast in Carolina, I like the upside he provides at his current ADP (QB24) because he may lean on his rushing ability a bit more as a rookie, which will give him a boost in fantasy.
I’m out on Derek Carr at his current ADP (QB19). The Saints have two talented WRs in Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, but overall, it is a slight downgrade in terms of surrounding pass-catching talent, especially if Thomas is unable to stay healthy. Another annoying part about being the QB for the Saints is that Carr will likely concede valuable red-zone/goal-line snaps to Taysom Hill. Carr just doesn’t offer the floor/ceiling combo I like to target in the low-end QB2 range.
Jordan Love and Kenny Pickett are two of the trickiest to project this season. Love only has one start in his first two seasons. He should have a very strong grasp of the offense and will be more polished than most QBs with just one career start. However, I am worried about just how inexperienced the WR/TE room is. His top-four targets between the Packers’ WR/TE rooms will likely be Christian Watson (second year), Romeo Doubs (second year), Jayden Reed (rookie) and Luke Musgrave (rookie). There will likely be some growing pains for the entire offense this year and while I’m not too interested in investing in Love directly, I do think most Packers skill players are offering value at their ADP.
Pickett failed to clear 200 passing yards in six of his 10 full games and also failed to throw for multiple TDs in a single game as a rookie. The low output in passing stats is very concerning given the pass-catching talent on the Steelers. Pickett was the only QB taken in the first round in 2022, but it was a very poor draft class and his draft position was likely propped up as a result. I don’t view him as a slam-dunk prospect and it’s not a given we will see a Year 2 leap from him.
Similar to Love, I’m not a fan of investing in Pickett directly, but Diontae Johnson and George Pickens can be had at a good enough ADP that I rather target them than Pickett. Even if Pickett continues to struggle or gets benched for Mitch Trubisky, those receivers should be able to hit their ADP. But if Pickett does have a breakout season, they will crush their ADP.
Tier 8
Brock Purdy
C.J. Stroud
Kyler Murray
Brock Purdy avoided the PUP list to begin camp, which increases his chances of starting Week 1 considerably. Purdy may be a seventh-round talent, but he appears to be a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, one that allowed Nick Mullens (of all QBs) to produce solid QB2 numbers.
One aspect of Purdy’s game that we didn’t see too much of in his rookie season was his rushing ability. At Iowa St., he ran for 30+ yards 24 times. I’m not saying we should expect him to turn into the next Josh Allen, but his size/speed measurables are very similar to Mahomes and I think that’s a reasonable comp for his scrambling potential. When looking at the first 10 yards of his 40-time, Purdy had 95th percentile speed (1.55 seconds), which shows just how quick his burst is. That sort of short area speed will allow Purdy to escape pressure and keep the play alive, similar to what we saw in the Wild Card Round on this play.
— not highlight heaven (@ABsneurosurgeon) January 15, 2023
It’s a skill set that Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t have and it’s likely why we saw Purdy elevate the entire offense in his six starts last season. He was the QB9 over that stretch and I don’t view the small sample size as fluky. Purdy is surrounded by elite talent in an elite scheme. I expect him to offer QB2 value, and potentially more if he starts to tap into his rushing upside.
C.J. Stroud is the future of the Texans and seems like a lock to be their Week 1 starter. His main strength is his accuracy, so he should help improve Houston’s passing game right away. While Stroud is capable of picking up yards with his legs, it’s really not part of his game. He’s going to be much more of a pocket passer than Bryce Young, which hurts his fantasy upside a bit. It also means he could have a bit tougher time transitioning to the NFL as a result.
Instead of investing in Stroud directly, I have preferred taking fliers on WRs Nico Collins, John Metchie and Tank Dell, all of whom should benefit from having a more polished and accurate QB.
Kyler Murray is still working his way back from ACL and meniscus injuries that ended his 2022 season. There’s a chance he could miss the first six or more games of this season. This raises two huge concerns over his 2023 fantasy value.
1) If the Cardinals get off to a slow start, will it make sense to rush Murray back at that point? This season will likely be a lost one for them, so keeping Murray healthy and losing games to boost their 2024 draft capital should be their goal.
2) Even when Murray does return to action, there’s a chance he doesn’t offer the same rushing upside. He’s not just coming back from an ACL tear, as there was also damage to his meniscus, which could complicate his recovery and take him a bit longer to return to 100%.
I’ve typically avoided drafting Murray, but if you are in a situation where you can add him for cheap and stash him on the IR (assuming he is placed on the IR by the start of the season), I can get behind that plan.
Tier 9
Ryan Tannehill
Mac Jones
Jimmy Garoppolo
The Titans selected Will Levis in the second round, which makes it tough to pencil Ryan Tannehill in for his usual 16+ game projection. There’s a chance the Titans are out of the playoff picture and give Levis some starts toward the end of the season. While there is some risk in taking Tannehill, the recent signing of DeAndre Hopkins was a huge boost to his per-game value. However, Tannehill doesn’t offer the same rushing upside at this point in his career. He only cleared 20 yards on the ground once last season, which means he offers a much lower ceiling and lower floor (the threat of an in-season benching for Levis) than we are used to with Tannehill.
Mac Jones had a rough sophomore season last year, but a lot of it could be chalked up to an incompetent duo of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge being tasked to run the offense. The offense should be much better under Bill O’Brien this season, but Jones still remains an unappealing QB2/3 option. We already saw him get benched for Bailey Zappe last season, so there’s clearly a chance we see that happen again in 2023.
Jimmy Garoppolo benefited a ton from playing in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme for the past six seasons. While he played under head coach Josh McDaniels in New England, I think it’ll be a tough transition for Jimmy G. on his new team. He inherits one of the best WRs in the game in Davante Adams, but this is an overall downgrade in surrounding talent compared to the 49ers.
Tier 10
Baker Mayfield
Desmond Ridder
Sam Howell
All three of these QBs appear set to start Week 1. However, I can’t confidently project any of them to start 14 or more games.
Baker Mayfield likely has the shortest leash, and there’s still a chance Kyle Trask can make his case to be the Week 1 starter. Whoever starts will have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at their disposal, which should be good enough for either to offer low-end QB2 value as long as they start.
Desmond Ridder will be limited by a scheme that leans heavily toward the run. However, he’s surrounded by talented pass catchers at each position in Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson. Ridder also possesses enough rushing upside to potentially offer QB2 value whenever he has a plus matchup.
Sam Howell is in a similar situation, as the Commanders will likely remain a run-heavy offense, but he has a couple of solid WRs in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson at his disposal. Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backup QBs in the league, which means Howell could be on a fairly short leash.
Tier 11
Jacoby Brissett
Kyle Trask
Trey Lance
Gardner Minshew
Taylor Heinicke
Will Levis
Colt McCoy
This is the tier of likely backups who all seem like a good bet to make starts at some point this season. Gardner Minshew and Colt McCoy would be more likely to make starts early in the season, while Kyle Trask, Taylor Heinicke, Jacoby Brissett and Will Levis would likely make any potential starts later in the season.
Trey Lance appears to be Brock Purdy’s backup heading into the 2023 season. He is just an injury or benching away from potentially offering low-end QB1 upside. I wasn’t comfortable taking Lance when his ADP was in the QB26-30 range, but with the latest news about Purdy being cleared for training camp, I expect Lance’s ADP to dip closer to the QB35 range. At that point, he would warrant a flier in spots in certain formats.
Tier 12
Mike White
Bailey Zappe
Clayton Tune
Andy Dalton
These are the last handful of backup QBs you can draft out of desperation. Compared to most backups, they have a better chance to make starts due to their starter being injury prone or benched.