The Wyoming Cowboys (1-7) will travel down to New Mexico (3-5) to take on the Lobos this Saturday. Kickoff from University Stadium in Albuquerque is set for 4 p.m. ET, and this game can be seen on truTV and Max.
New Mexico is a 7.5-point home favorite in this matchup with a total of 60.5 points.
Let’s take a look at my Wyoming vs New Mexico predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wyoming vs New Mexico Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]
- Wyoming vs New Mexico Pick: Over 60.5
My Wyoming vs New Mexico best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Wyoming vs New Mexico Odds
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- Wyoming vs New Mexico Point Spread: Wyoming +7.5 (-110) · New Mexico -7.5 (-110)
- Wyoming vs New Mexico Total: Over/Under 61
- Wyoming vs New Mexico Moneyline: Wyoming +235 · New Mexico -290
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wyoming vs New Mexico Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/subheader]
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Wyoming Cowboys Betting Preview: Quarterback Clarity” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/subheader]
Wyoming has fallen to 1-7 on the season and 1-3 in conference play, with its only win of the season coming against a bad Air Force team.
The Cowboys have one of the worst offenses in FBS, ranking 133rd in Success Rate and 128th in EPA Per Play this season. They’ve been bad both passing and rushing, as they rank 133rd in Pass Success Rate and 131st in Rush Success Rate.
Quarterback play has been an issue for this offense. Evan Svoboda began the season as the primary signal-caller, but after it was stated that the Cowboys would use a two-QB system last week, Svoboda didn’t play at all in the second half.
Instead we saw Kaden Anderson take the field. He performed much better and almost helped the Cowboys win the game. Anderson was announced as the starter for this upcoming game as well, so we’ll see if he adds something to this offense.
Although it’s been in a limited sample of just 47 pass attempts this season, Anderson is averaging 0.23 EPA Per Dropback compared to Svoboda’s atrocious -0.27 EPA Per Dropback.
I don’t know if Anderson will be better going forward, but I don’t know that he could be much worse.
Wyoming’s defense also hasn’t performed well this season. It’s 100th in Success Rate allowed and 92nd in EPA per play allowed. The Cowboys have been around average at defending the run, ranking 71st in Rush Success Rate allowed, 72nd in EPA Per Rush allowed and 48th in PFF Run Defense grade.
Teams have had more success against the Cowboys attacking through the air, as they rank 114th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 96th in EPA Per Pass allowed. They’re 87th in PFF Pass Rush grade and 93rd in PFF Coverage grade, as neither part of the pass defense has been stellar.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Keep Pushing on Offense” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
New Mexico is 3-5 on the season, with wins against New Mexico State, Air Force, and Utah State.
It had won three in a row before losing 17-6 to Colorado State last weekend in a game in which it may have been the better team by most accounts. However, the Lobos lost -6.14 EPA to penalties and another -10.3 points to turnover luck in that outing.
The Lobos have been led by their offense this season. They rank 34th in Success Rate and 28th in EPA Per Play this season. They’ve had pretty even run-pass splits and have been efficient in both, ranking 40th in Rush Success Rate, 20th in EPA Per Rush, 49th in Pass Success Rate and 52nd in EPA Per Pass.
Quarterback Devon Dampier is averaging 0.11 EPA Per Dropback this season with 2,079 passing yards and nine touchdowns. He’s also the team’s leading rusher with 538 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
However, his main issue has been turning the ball over, as he has 11 interceptions on the season.
New Mexico’s defense has been downright bad this season, ranking 129th in Success Rate allowed and 134th in EPA Per Play allowed. The Lobos are 129th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 133rd in EPA Per Pass allowed, 123rd in PFF Pass Rush grade and 105th in PFF Coverage grade.
The rushing defense hasn’t been any better, as the Lobos are 126th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 127th in EPA Per Rush allowed. They’re also just 124th in PFF Run Defense Grade and 126th in PFF Tackling grade as this is a bad unit all-around.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wyoming vs New Mexico” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/subheader]
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and New Mexico match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
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Offense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico Lobos” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png” slug=”new-mexico-lobos”][/teamlogo]
Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 130 | 129 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 129 | 109 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 130 | 128 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 98 | 120 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 129 | 132 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 119 | 133 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png”][/teamlogo]
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New Mexico Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico Lobos” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png” slug=”new-mexico-lobos”][/teamlogo]
Offense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming Cowboys” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png” slug=”wyoming-cowboys”][/teamlogo]
Defense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Combined” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png” slug=””][/teamlogo]
Edge
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| Rush Success | 50 | 62 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 10 | 83 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 59 | 103 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 20 | 104 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 96 | 98 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 48 | 107 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/teamlogo]
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wyoming Cowboys” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png” slug=”wyoming-cowboys”][/teamlogo]
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”New Mexico Lobos” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nm.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 90 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 95 | 104 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 71 | 134 |
| Middle 8 | 121 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (66) | 25.1 (28) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (48) | 51% (86) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wyoming vs New Mexico Pick & Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
New Mexico’s offense will likely be the best unit on the field this weekend. It’ll be taking on Wyoming’s defense, which ranks 107th in SP+, and will likely not provide much resistance for Dampier and this offense.
New Mexico’s No. 132 defense versus Wyoming’s No. 128 offense will be an interesting battle to monitor. Anderson has been good in his limited playing sample, and I think we could see a revived Wyoming offense this weekend that at least performs better than the market is anticipating.
I think Wyoming can cover this number, as it should probably not be 7.5. However, my preferred bet on this game is taking the over, as both of these defenses are bad, and I think we could see good offensive football on both sides of this matchup.
Pick: Over 60.5 (Play to 62.5)
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Wyoming vs New Mexico Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | truTV |
Wyoming takes on New Mexico at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on Saturday, Nov. 2. Kickoff is at 4 p.m. ET on truTV.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Wyoming vs New Mexico Betting Trends” center=”true”][/subheader]
- 60% of the bets are on Wyoming to cover the spread while 99% of the money is on New Mexico ATS.
- 75% of the bets are on the under while 73% of the money is on the same side of the over/under.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Wyoming vs New Mexico Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”227035″ date=”2024-11-02″][/gameforecast]
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