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western kentucky vs jacksonville state-odds-picks-predictions-today-dec 6

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Odds, Picks and Predictions for Today, Dec. 6

It’s Déjà vu as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4, 6-2 CUSA) take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4, 7-1).

These two teams met just last week and played a thrilling matchup. The Hilltoppers won, 19-17, on a last-second field goal.

We saw both offenses operate efficiently. However, many drives were squandered, as the scoreboard resulted in Jacksonville State’s lowest point total on the season and Western Kentucky’s second-lowest output this year.

So, what will be the difference maker in Round 2? Western Kentucky is a 5-point favorite on the spread with a 57.5-point over/under.

Read on for my Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State predictions and college football picks for the Conference USA Championship on Friday, Dec. 6.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Odds

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  • Spread: Jacksonville State -4 · Western Kentucky +4
  • Over/Under: 58
  • Moneyline: Jacksonville State ML -195 · Western Kentucky ML +162

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Prediction

  • Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Pick: Jacksonville State -6 or better

Spread

My Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on the Gamecocks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Over/Under

PASS

Moneyline

PASS

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

Last week, we saw the Hilltoppers’ offense hum.

Quarterback Caden Veltkamp led another pass-happy attack, throwing for over 300 yards and one touchdown.

We also saw Elijah Young get things going on the ground, racking up 91 yards on 19 carries.

While both of those stat lines are solid, they are not particularly efficient. Veltkamp only averaged 6.4 yards per completion, a steep drop from his 8.3-yard season average.

We shouldn’t expect a similar performance from Young, either. Those 19 carries were his third-highest total this season, and he’s had over 15 carries just five times this year.

So, while the Hilltoppers squeezed out enough offense to win last week, the numbers show it will be hard for them to maintain success. This has been a trend for the Hilltoppers offense as they rank 53rd in Eckel Rate but are 78th in Points per Eckel.

That means Western Kentucky can generate successful drives, but those drives do not typically result in points on the board. Jacksonville State proved it can contain this offense as it matches up well through the air and on the ground.

The Gamecocks rank 63rd nationally in PFF’s coverage grades and 56th in Pass Success Rate allowed, which is critical against Western Kentucky. With a fresh scouting report for the Gamecocks, it’s hard to see Western Kentucky having much positive regression offensively.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview

Jacksonville State proved that it can establish control with its fierce ground game.

The Gamecocks rushed for 229 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry last week against the ‘Toppers.

Quarterback Tyler Huff led the team in rushing with 97 yards and picked up 51 on one long play. You can bet they will attempt to replicate those results.

What makes this Gamecocks offense unique is their tempo. They rank seventh nationally in seconds per play but fourth in rush play rate.

Their fast, methodical offense does a number on opposing defenses, as they are great at winning the war of attrition. The Gamecocks are just 69th in Eckel rate but 14th in Points per Eckel, which means sustained drives often result in points.

We should see Jacksonville State continue to push Western Kentucky around on the ground. The Gamecocks have a tremendous edge, as Western Kentucky ranks 115th nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed.

While the Hilltoppers will know what to expect from the ground game, they can’t overcommit, as Huff has shown he can burn defenses who do, ranking 25th in yards per pass despite throwing the ball just 34% of the time.

Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky match up statistically:

Western Kentucky Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 107 86
Line Yards 90 87
Pass Success 27 56
Havoc 60 71
Finishing Drives 69 73
Quality Drives 74 77
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 26 115
Line Yards 20 116
Pass Success 73 88
Havoc 29 121
Finishing Drives 7 26
Quality Drives 53 32
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 13 21
PFF Coverage 91 63
Special Teams SP+ 20 75
Middle 8 84 30
Seconds per Play 25.8 (39) 23.4 (7)
Rush Rate 50% (96) 68% (4)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How to Make College Football Picks For My Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State Prediction” center=”true”][/subheader]

The market has shown plenty of support for Jacksonville State. This spread was quickly bet up from three to five.

There was then some resistance, moving it back down to 3.5.

But it has since returned to five, so there is a clear side to take in this matchup.

The Gamecocks have all the tools to control this matchup. They can dominate with their up-tempo rushing attack while containing the Hilltoppers passing game on the other side of the ball.

I’m backing Jacksonville State to win the Conference USA championship while covering the five-point spread.

Pick: Jacksonville State -6 or better

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Location: AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL
Date: Friday, Dec. 6
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: CBS Sports Network

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State will be played at Amfirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama, on Friday, Dec. 6 at 7:00 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on CBS Sports Network.

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Doug Ziefel

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