History says two teams ranked inside the top 25 are unlikely to cover the spread Saturday of college football Week 2.
Leveraging two separate PRO Systems, we’ve pinpointed ranked teams overvalued based on historical data and situational trends.
More often than not, the public believes it’s tougher to find value in big games. However, we have two college football PRO Systems that have historically led to profitable outcomes — specifically for two games involving top-25 teams on Saturday.
Provided with these key takeaways, we transition to a pair of Week 2 college football picks from our premium models, beginning with one of the best games of the entire weekend.
Week 2 College Football Picks: Fade These Two Ranked Teams
No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 24 NC State Spread Pick
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We know exactly which side has been the right bet when No. 14 Tennessee takes on No. 24 NC State in a neutral-site game.
When two top-25 teams play and the spread is -3 or more, our “Ranked Matchups” PRO Systems found that the best bet has been the home team.
Historically, this strategy has proven to be statistically sound, covering the spread at 58%.
Even though this particular game is being played on neutral ground, the trend still applies when the favorite is favored by at least three points or more. In this scenario, we simply back Tennessee (-7.5) as the pick, and fade NC State as a big underdog.
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PRO System Pick: Tennessee to Cover the Spread
Appalachian State vs. No. 25 Clemson Spread Pick
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The next matchup in our Week 2 college football picks features Appalachian State catching a bunch of points to No. 25-ranked Clemson.
This game caught our eye thanks to our 59%-winning spread model, which flagged the Mountaineers vs. Tigers clash following Clemson’s poor performance against Georgia.
Now, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are in an awful spot historically, expecting to cover a huge number after a poor performance that exposed some offensive flaws.
For Clemson, which is favored by +17 at home following such an abysmal offensive showing, our Scoring Streak Fade PRO System has highlighted it as a bad bet this Saturday.
The model supports betting on the underdog — in this case, Appalachian State at +17 — when a home favorite scored between 0-9 points in their previous game.
Clemson checks the boxes as the team to fade after losing 34-3 to Georgia.
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PRO System Pick: Appalachian State to Cover the Spread
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