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Washington State vs Washington Odds, Picks: Expect a High-Scoring Apple Cup

Washington State Cougars vs Washington Huskies Odds

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The Apple Cup has quite a lot of meaning this season, as Washington tries to remain perfect when it takes on Washington State in Seattle.

The Cougars finally ended their six-game losing streak, blowing out Colorado by a score of 56-14. They needed two defensive touchdowns and one special teams score to do it, but they’ll now reach bowl eligibility if they can pull off a historic upset against their in-state rival.

Washington survived one of its toughest tests of the season, going to Corvallis and coming away with a 22-20 victory. It now has one final regular-season test before another battle with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game.

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Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Washington State quarterback Cam Ward might be one of the most exciting players in college football given his dual-threat ability, but he has been up and down this season.

He’ll have games, like the one against Oregon State, where he lights up an opposing secondary for 400 yards and four touchdowns, and others where he looks like he can’t complete a pass.

Image via PFF.

One thing is for sure, though — Washington State is going to throw the ball no matter what. Ward ranks top-five in passes attempted this season, as the Cougars throw the ball on 59.4% of their offensive plays.

He’s had great games against two really good secondaries in Oregon and Oregon State, so there’s no reason why he can’t light up Washington’s secondary.

For Washington State to be successful in this game, though, it’s going to have to run the ball effectively. The Cougars boast a solid rushing attack, ranking 18th in Rushing Success Rate, so they should be able to move the ball on Washington’s defense.

The problem is, I’m not sure how the Cougars are going to stop Michael Penix Jr. Washington State has been very average in the secondary, ranking outside the top 6o in both Passing Success Rate and EPA/Pass Allowed.

The only other elite quarterback the Cougars have faced this season has been Bo Nix, who had one his most efficient games of the season, going 18-for-25 for 293 yards and two touchdowns.

The other big problem for Washington State is it has major difficulties stopping teams when they get into its territory. The Cougars rank 101st in Finishing Drives Allowed and 91st in red-zone scoring percentage allowed.

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What more can you say about Penix at this point in the season? He’s probably not going to win the Heisman after the video game numbers Jayden Daniels has put up the past few weeks, but he has truly been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season.

Penix ranks fourth in college football in EPA and 10th in yards per attempt at 9.4. The reason is his incredible deep ball. Penix has a PFF passing grade over 92 on throws over 10 yards in the air and has 30 big-time throws on the season, which are the second-most in college football.

It helps when you have the receiving core that Washington has. Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk have combined for over 2,000 yards receiving and 19 touchdowns while also ranking inside the top 50 in EPA per target.

Washington has also been really effective running the ball behind Dillon Johnson, who’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry and sits top-15 in the country in EPA per attempt.

Johnson will be key in this game because Washington State is outside the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and explosiveness allowed.

The biggest reason Washington has been so efficient offensively is its ability to score once it crosses over into opposing territory. The Huskies are 14th in Finishing Drives, averaging 4.78 points per scoring chance.

On the other side, Washington’s defense has one glaring weakness — it can’t stop the run.

It did a decent job against Oregon State this past weekend, holding the Beavers to only 3.7 yards per carry. But on the season, the Huskies sit near the bottom of college football in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Defensive Line Yards and EPA/Rush.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and Washington match up statistically:

Washington State Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 18 130
Line Yards 116 132
Pass Success 41 13
Havoc 76 115
Finishing Drives 46 71
Quality Drives 52 50
Washington Offense vs. Washington State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 11 83
Line Yards 60 51
Pass Success 5 62
Havoc 30 58
Finishing Drives 14 101
Quality Drives 8 76
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 110 118
PFF Coverage 72 30
Special Teams SP+ 14 42
Middle 8 22 9
Seconds per Play 25.0 (28) 27.4 (74)
Rush Rate 40.6% (132) 41.7% (123)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Here’s the thing about this game: I’m not sure either defense is going to stop the opposing offense.

Given what we saw from Washington State’s secondary when it played Oregon, Penix should have a huge game while Johnson runs the ball effectively against a below-average front seven.

The flip side is Washington has been incredibly poor in stopping the run for most of the season, while Washington State has an above-average rushing attack.

Plus, Ward has shown the ability to be successful throwing the ball against good secondaries, throwing for over 400 yards against both Oregon and Oregon State.

Most importantly, though, these two defenses are struggling from a Finishing Drives perspective and rank outside the top 100 in terms of a tackling grade, per PFF.

Washington State is going to play fast and try to push the pace, which is a benefit to the over because that’ll only give Penix more possessions even if it goes three-and-out in a hurry.

So, I like the value on over 67.5 points in the 2023 edition of the Apple Cup.

Pick: Over 67.5

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Brad Cunningham

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