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Wake Forest vs. Miami Prediction, Spread, Line, College Football Picks for Week 13

The Miami Hurricanes (9-1) will host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6) in NCAAF Week 13.

The Canes are coming off a much-needed bye week after suffering a tough road loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Deacons enter Coral Gables as heavy underdogs and have lost two straight contests. The aspirations for a bowl season bid are slim, as they have to win out to participate.

Oddsmakers have the Deacons as 24.5-point underdogs, and the over/under is 64.5 total points.

Let’s examine my Wake Forest vs. Miami predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23, at 12 p.m. EST.

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  • Wake Forest vs. Miami Pick: Miami Team Total Over 45

My Wake Forest vs. Miami best bet is on the Hurricanes team total over, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Wake Forest vs. Miami Odds, Betting Lines, Spread

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  • Wake Forest vs Miami Spread: Miami -24
  • Wake Forest vs Miami Over/Under: 67
  • Wake Forest vs Miami Moneyline: Wake Forest ML +1300 · Miami ML -2800

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons

It’s been a rough year in Winston-Salem, as the Deacons are now long shots to make a bowl game.

There wasn’t much optimism entering the season, but many expected the Deacons to at least make a bowl game, considering the state of the ACC Conference.

The Deacons’ defense has been an outright disaster, causing massive issues all season. It only gets more challenging when they go on the road to take on a prolific Hurricanes offense.

Offensively, quarterback Hank Bachmeier has had mixed results in his 20th season in college football. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions but has been sacked 27 times.

The Hurricanes’ secondary has been stingy for most of the year, and the Deacons have been unable to sustain or finish drives. They rank outside the top 80 nationally in Quality and Finishing Drives.

The Deacons have successfully run the ball, which is the strength of the offensive trench. They rank 31st in Rush Success Rate and 59th in Line Yards.

The problem is that they must keep up in a track meet with the ‘Canes offense to cover the number. They need explosives on offense and cannot capitalize against a Canes defense that allows a fair amount of them.

I touched upon the defense above, but the metrics could be better. The Deacons rank outside the top 100 FBS squads in the following defensive categories:

  • Rush and Pass Success Rate Allowed
  • Line Yards Allowed
  • Havoc
  • Quality and Finishing Drives Allowed
  • PFF Tackling

The only thing going for them is that they do a solid job of limiting explosive plays, but that will not matter much. The Canes are coming off a loss and had a bye week to mull it over, so it is safe to say they will come out with their hair on fire.

There is no way I can back the Deacons here despite the number being inflated.

Miami Hurricanes

The Canes offense returned to earth before their bye week against Georgia Tech, as the Yellow Jackets defense had quarterback Cam Ward under duress throughout the entire afternoon.

The Hurricanes suffered their first-season loss, but luckily, they have a favorable schedule to end the season.

Right now, the Canes are the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, which would earn them a first-round bye. Of course, they would have to win the ACC Championship game to secure that seed.

Their resume is not powerful enough to overcome a two-loss SEC team, so the matchup against the Deacons is a golden opportunity to right the offensive ship.

The offense starts with Ward, as there is no question about his importance. He is alive in the Heisman conversation, posting a ridiculous 32 touchdown passes and five interceptions on the season.

Ward has also scored three touchdowns on the ground, and his ability to escape a broken-down pocket to make throws down the field does not appear in the box score. He will feast all afternoon against a horrific Deacons defense that struggles mightily in pass defense and creates Havoc.

The Canes offense is special, ranking inside the top 15 nationally in all of the following metrics:

  • Rush and Pass Success Rate
  • Line Yards
  • Havoc Allowed
  • Finishing Drives

They have a methodical tempo and lead the country in Quality Drives. It’s rare to see them go three and out, which is a testament to the quality of their offense.

Defensively is the one area that has caused some concern for the ‘Canes, as they’ve struggled in multiple games to suppress opposing offenses. The Louisville game sticks out to me the most, as the Cards shredded them up and down the field throughout the matchup.

Their most significant weaknesses have been stopping the rush and limiting explosives. This is a concern for future matchups, but as it pertains to the matchup against the Deacons, I do not have much worry that they will be able to take advantage.

Metrically, the numbers appear strong on paper. They’ve been excellent in the secondary and rank 19th in Havoc.

But they are 98th in Finishing Drives Allowed, so opposing offenses have been scoring touchdowns at will against them. That is why I cannot back them, laying the 24.5 points at home since the backdoor should be wide open for the Deacons.

Miami vs. Wake Forest Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Wake Forest match up statistically:

Wake Forest Offense vs. Miami Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 31 42
Line Yards 59 17
Pass Success 66 31
Havoc 46 19
Finishing Drives 111 98
Quality Drives 84 61
Miami Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 2 121
Line Yards 4 105
Pass Success 13 121
Havoc 13 126
Finishing Drives 6 95
Quality Drives 1 117
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 4 103
PFF Coverage 64 51
Special Teams SP+ 56 8
Middle 8 41 30
Seconds per Play 23.5 (9) 27.9 (89)
Rush Rate 51% (97) 46% (109)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I love the Canes here, but I want to target their team total instead of the point spread. The number 44.5 is high, but there is a good reason.

The Canes have all the tools to destroy the Deacons, especially after a tough loss and a bye week. The situational spot is working in their favor, and the offense will not face any resistance against the Deacons’ defense.

Head coach Mario Cristobal realizes that his team must put on a show for the rest of the regular season in case they slip up in the ACC Championship game. With that said, I do not think they will let their foot off the gas until their offense puts up video game numbers.

Despite the tremendous situational spot, the Deacons will throw the kitchen sink at the Canes. They have to win out to make a bowl, so they have nothing to lose in that aspect.

Plus, the Miami defensive concerns worry me that it will cost them a cover, so I am much more confident taking their team total over.

Pick: Miami Team Total Over 45 or Better

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Wake Forest vs. Miami Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Date: Saturday, Nov. 23
Kickoff Time: 12 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Wake Forest vs Miami will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.

Wake Forest vs. Miami Betting Trends

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Wake Forest vs. Miami Weather

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