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virginia vs maryland-odds-picks-predictions-college football-betting preview-september 15

Virginia vs Maryland Odds, Picks: Expect Plenty of Points

Virginia vs Maryland Odds

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It’s Friday night, so we’re heading to College Park, where the Maryland Terrapins will host the Virginia Cavaliers.

The Maryland faithful are hoping that Taulia Tagovailoa can channel some of his big brother’s magic after we saw Tua rack up 466 yards for the Miami Dolphins this past Sunday.

Now, his little brother will have the chance to shine under the Friday night lights with the chance to keep the Terrapins undefeated heading into the conference schedule.

As for his opposition in this matchup, the Cavaliers put up a good showing against James Madison after being rolled by Tennessee in Week 1. They came to life offensively in the second half and will need to do so again if they want to

So, what’s the best way to bet this matchup? Let’s take a closer look at the Virginia vs. Maryland odds and make a betting pick and prediction.

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This will be the third time we’ll see the Hoos offense, and this matchup will show what they want their offensive identity to be.

Overall, they’ve rushed the ball at the 32nd-highest rate in the country, but they found loads of success through the air against JMU.

So, what version of the Cavaliers will we see?

Well, from a matchup perspective and a potential game script perspective, they’ll fare better through the air. Maryland’s secondary has had a rough go of it thus far, ranking 114th in yards per pass allowed and 84th in opponent completion percentage.

It’s given up more than its share of explosive plays as well. The key for Virginia will be to protect the quarterback, as the Cavs are 124th in Sack Rate Allowed.

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I touched briefly on Tua’s little brother in the intro, but Taulia Tagovailoa has made a name for himself by running this Maryland offense. The Terrapins have put up 76 points in their first two games of the season and have done it in a variety of ways.

While they do throw the ball nearly 52% of the time, Maryland has had great success on the ground with Roman Hemby. The 6-foot-2 sophomore is an imposing force on the ground, as he’s racked up 220 yards on 31 carries already for an average of 7.1 yards per tote.

Hemby should be able to keep rumbling in this matchup, as the Cavaliers rank 111th in yards per rush allowed.

The bruising rushing attack has put Tagovailoa in a great spot when dropping back to pass, as he’s free to push the ball down the field. He’s done so with great success, as he’s averaging eight yards per completion and completing passes at a 68% clip.

Regardless of how the Terrapins decide to attack, they should not face much resistance from Virginia in this one.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Maryland match up statistically:

Virginia Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 131 101
Line Yards 127 107
Pass Success 115 19
Havoc 133 120
Finishing Drives 81 16
Quality Drives 117 23
Maryland Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 22 131
Line Yards 28 127
Pass Success 42 110
Havoc 14 109
Finishing Drives 30 126
Quality Drives 24 107
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 129 28
PFF Coverage 56 27
Special Teams SP+ 119 45
Middle 8 33 19
Seconds per Play 29.9 (113) 25.3 (42)
Rush Rate 60.0% (39) 47.0% (92)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Maryland should be squarely in control of this matchup with its drastic edge on the offensive side of the ball. However, that doesn’t mean the Cavaliers won’t try to fight back.

Virginia found great success last week in the passing game after going down early against JMU. With a similar game script expected for this matchup, it won’t be surprising to see the Hoos get it going through the air once again.

Take the over, as it sits just below a key number.

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Doug Ziefel

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