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Utah vs UCF Prediction, Odds, Picks & College Football Betting Guide for Week 14

This is why they play the games.

Two of college football’s biggest disappointments in terms of failing to meet preseason expectations finally bring their seasons to an end.

The preseason betting favorite to win the Big 12, Utah (4-7), instead finds itself second to last in the conference standings. The Utes have lost seven straight and will miss a bowl in a full-length season for the first time since 2013.

UCF (4-7) wasn’t quite as hyped leading up to the season, but it was a popular dark-horse contender thanks to what was expected to be one of the most dynamic offenses in America.

These teams are a combined 1-14 since September 28, but one will have the good fortune of at least finishing the season on a positive note.

Which team will be slightly less disappointing on Friday’s night’s final game? UCF is a 9.5-point favorite on the spread with a 47.5-point over/under.

Read on for my Utah vs UCF predictions and college football picks.

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  • Utah vs. UCF Pick: UCF -9.5

My Utah vs. UCF best bet is on the Knights to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Utah vs UCF Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • Utah vs UCF Spread: Utah +10 · UCF -10
  • Utah vs UCF Over/Under: 46.5
  • Utah vs UCF Moneyline: Utah ML +280 · UCF ML -350

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Utah Utes Betting Preview: Quarterback Play a Question

Success in football often boils down to quarterback play, and Utah has had quite a bumpy ride at that position throughout the season.

The Utes first lost Cam Rising to a season-ending injury. Backup quarterback Isaac Wilson was then benched for poor play in favor of Brandon Rose. Rose then suffered a season-ending injury three games ago against BYU, forcing the Utes to turn back to Wilson.

The results have not been kind. Utah has thrown more interceptions than any other Big 12 team and ranks 118th nationally in Pass Success Rate. The Utes have been held below 200 yards passing in three of their past five games.

With a ground game that ranks 110th in Rush Success Rate, no facet of the Utah offense has been able to muster much scoring. Utah’s 23.2 points per game rank 14th in the 16-team Big 12.

Typically a calling card of any Kyle Whittingham team, the Utah defense has begun to show cracks. Over the last three games, Utah has allowed an average of 34 points, including three rushing touchdowns in each of its last two games.

Early-season defensive success, however, still ranks the Utes in the top 11 in both Defensive Line Yards and Rush Success Rate allowed, which will be critical for Utah to rekindle against a strong UCF ground game.

UCF Knights Betting Preview: Rinse and Repeat

The quarterback position for UCF is a rinse-and-repeat from the Utah story.

The Knights expected Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson to be one of the best dual-threats in the nation, but the veteran quarterback has instead found himself benched.

After benching backup Jacurri Brown, UCF has found much more success with redshirt freshman Dylan Rizk. The more traditional pocket passer has thrown for nearly 800 yards and five touchdowns in three starts, helping reignite a passing offense in a mid-season swoon.

The real engine of this team, however, is running back RJ Harvey. Harvey’s 1,458 rushing yards are the fourth most in the country on an offense that ranks fifth nationally in Rush Success Rate. Harvey’s scored at least two rushing touchdowns in UCF’s last five games.

The UCF defense has been surprisingly good against the run all season, ranking third in the Big 12, but the same cannot be said for its pass defense, where the Knights rank just 88th in Pass Success Rate allowed.

UCF has been particularly susceptible to explosive pass plays. Its 108 allowed pass plays with at least 10 yards in length are the third-most in the Big 12.

Utah vs UCF Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and UCF match up statistically:

Utah Offense vs. UCF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 110 13
Line Yards 106 13
Pass Success 118 88
Havoc 121 67
Finishing Drives 114 116
Quality Drives 107 81
UCF Offense vs. Utah Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 5 6
Line Yards 4 8
Pass Success 81 34
Havoc 56 22
Finishing Drives 72 20
Quality Drives 47 19
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 121 89
PFF Coverage 65 66
Special Teams SP+ 44 87
Middle 8 70 103
Seconds per Play 30.3 (128) 24.8 (23)
Rush Rate 52% (84) 64% (10)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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While Utah hasn’t won since September, its defense has generally been good enough to keep it in games at least. Utah’s last four games have all been decided by one score.

That defense, however, hasn’t been nearly as good on the road, allowing almost a full 10 points more away from Salt Lake City.

UCF doesn’t have a great passing defense, but there’s no reason to think Isaac Wilson can take advantage of that. RJ Harvey and the Knights rushing offense should be able to find enough scoring success to keep this out of reach and complete a sour season with a sweet finish at home.

Pick: UCF -9.5 (Play to -10)

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Utah vs UCF Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
Date: Friday, Nov. 29
Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FOX

Utah vs UCF will be played at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida, on Friday, Nov. 29 at 8 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.

Utah vs UCF Betting Trends

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