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northwestern vs utah-pick-prediction-odds-las vegas bowl-betting preview-ncaaf-dec 23

Northwestern vs Utah Pick, Prediction, Odds | Las Vegas Bowl Betting Preview

Northwestern vs Utah Odds

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The Northwestern Wildcats and Utah Utes will close out their seasons at Allegiant Stadium in the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday night.

Utah had high hopes of defending its Pac-12 title but fell short of those expectations and finished the season 8-4. The Utes will be missing multiple key players because of injury and the transfer portal, so we’ll see how motivated they are come Saturday.

Northwestern came into the season in turmoil but finished the season in red-hot fashion to earn bowl eligibility.

David Braun, who has had the interim tag removed from his title, has pulled off one of the great turnarounds in college football this season. Northwestern will be highly motivated to finish the season strong, especially as underdogs once again.

Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let’s break it down.

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Northwestern quarterback Ben Bryant has been impressive the last three games since returning from injury. Bryant averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt against Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois while recording a +11.17 EPA in those three games.

Even though Northwestern hasn’t moved the ball very effectively this season, the Wildcats have finished off scoring drives. Northwestern averages 4.5 Points per Scoring Opportunity, which ranks 26th in the country.

The ‘Cats have also scored points on 91.6% of their red-zone trips. That success may loom large against a Utah defense that has been average in the red zone.

The front seven is the strongest part of the Northwestern defense.

The Wildcats finished the season ranked 46th in EPA/Rush Allowed because of how good they were down the stretch. Over its final four games of the season, Northwestern allowed one of the lowest explosive rush rates in the country and was also top-50 in Positive EPA Play Percentage Allowed.

Northwestern’s secondary has been very average all season long, ranking 60th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 63rd in EPA/Pass Allowed.

The Wildcats have had problems giving up big plays over the top — ranking 108th in passing explosiveness allowed — but that shouldn’t be too big of a concern against the Utes’ passing attack.

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Quarterback Bryson Barnes is expected to start for the Utes despite being in the transfer portal, but Utah sits outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass with last year’s starter, Cam Rising, being sidelined for the entire season.

That means there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Utah’s rushing attack in this game. However, the Utes haven’t been particularly efficient on the ground this season.

Utah ranks outside the top 70 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush, mainly because its offensive line has not done it any favors. The Utes rank 78th in Defensive Line Yards and 94th in Stuff Rate Allowed.

Utah’s eight wins this season can largely be attributed to its defense, which proved to be one of the best in the Pac-12. The Utes finished the season inside the top 20 in the nation in both Success Rate and EPA/Play Allowed.

However, the Utes will be without three starters in its front seven. Linebacker Lander Barton and edge rusher Logan Fano were lost earlier in the season, and defensive lineman Jonah Elliss went down in Week 10.

Both of the Utes’ starting safeties have also opted out of this game, so Utah will have to find a way to slow down Northwestern without many of the key pieces that headlined its top-ranked defensive unit.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Utah match up statistically:

Utah Offense vs Northwestern Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 71 75
Line Yards 81 74
Pass Success 87 63
Havoc 90 125
Finishing Drives 110 60
Quality Drives 16 60
Northwestern Offense vs Utah Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 93 29
Line Yards 126 43
Pass Success 96 25
Havoc 96 3
Finishing Drives 26 64
Quality Drives 118 23
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 19 47
PFF Coverage 83 48
Special Teams SP+ 36 83
Middle 8 20 69
Seconds per Play 29.7 (116) 26.7 (63)
Rush Rate 61.9% (11) 55.0% (88)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Northwestern vs Utah” subtext=”Betting Pick, Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

Given where Northwestern was as a program coming into the season after parting ways with Pat Fitzgerald and winning only one game in 2022, reaching a bowl game is an impressive accomplishment.

The Wildcats won four out of their last five games to get to 7-5, and only one starter has hit the portal.

Not only has the Utah rushing attack struggled, but the Utes haven’t taken advantage of their scoring opportunities, ranking 110th in Finishing Drives.

Also of note, Northwestern went 6-3 against the spread as underdogs this season.

With the Wildcats having most of their roster available, I love the value on them at +6.5 against a limited Utah squad.

Pick: Northwestern +6.5

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