On Friday night, the South Florida Bulls (3-4, 1-2 AAC) will travel to Boca Raton to take on the Florida Atlantic Owls (2-5, 0-3) in an in-state AAC matchup. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 from FAU Stadium.
These teams are both off to tough starts this season and will need to rebound to have a chance at becoming bowl-eligible.
The Bulls had dropped 3 straight games before picking up a 35-25 win over UAB last week. FAU, meanwhile, finds itself on a 2-game losing streak entering Friday night’s AAC clash.
USF is favored in this matchup by 2.5 points with the total sitting at 49.5 points.
Let’s take a look at my USF vs. FAU predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 1.
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- USF vs. Florida Atlantic Pick: Florida Atlantic ML +120
My FAU vs. USF bet is on the Owls to win outright on the moneyline, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USF vs FAU Odds, Spread, Lines
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- USF vs Florida Atlantic Point Spread: USF -3
- USF vs Florida Atlantic Over/Under: 47.5 Total Points
- USF vs Florida Atlantic Moneyline: USF ML -142 · FAU ML +120
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”USF Football vs FAU Football Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/usf.png” logo2url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Florida-Atlantic-Owls-Logo-100.png”][/subheader]
USF Bulls Betting Preview
USF enters this game at 3-4 on the season and 1-2 in AAC play after coming into the season with the fourth-best odds to win the conference title.
Its record is not impressive, but USF has played a difficult schedule with its two conference losses coming to two of the better teams in the AAC in Tulane and Memphis, and its other two losses coming at the hands of Miami and Alabama.
This team is likely better than its record or underlying stats show due to their strength of schedule.
Even with this tough schedule, USF’s offense has not been good. It ranks 125th in Success Rate and 127th in EPA Per Play on offense this season.
The Bulls primarily pass the ball and rank 126th in Pass Success Rate and 130th in EPA Per Pass this season. The run game has not been much better, ranking 105th in Rush Success Rate and 99th in EPA Per Rush.
The offensive line has been a major issue for USF this season, ranking 130th in PFF’s Run Blocking grade and 115th in PFF Pass Blocking grade.
Quarterback Byrum Brown has been out for over a month now without any update on his status. With Brown on the sideline, Bryce Archie has been starting in his place.
This has been a dramatic difference, as Brown averaged -0.14 EPA (Expected Points Added) per Dropback compared to -0.45 for Archie.
If Brown is playing, this is a different offense. But at this point, I wouldn’t count on seeing him this week.
Defensively, South Florida ranks 62nd in Success Rate allowed and 82nd in EPA Per Play allowed.
It’s had dramatic run/pass splits, ranking eighth in Rush Success Rate allowed and 12th in EPA Per Rush allowed compared to 118th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 119th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
The Bulls have been strong up front, ranking 36th in PFF’s Pass Rushing grade and 66th in Rush Defense grades.
However, their secondary has been an issue, as they’re 113th in PFF’s Coverage grades, which explains why they have had trouble stopping the pass this season despite their solid pass rush.
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FAU Owls Betting Preview
Florida Atlantic is still looking for its first conference win. The Owls’ only wins this season have come against FCS Wagner and Florida International, which is among the worst teams in FBS.
The Owls rank 101st in Success Rate and 85th in EPA Per Play this season against the No. 95 strength of schedule, according to CFB Reference.
They’re best on the ground, particularly at generating explosive plays, as they rank just 94th in Rush Success Rate but 28th in EPA Per Rush.
FAU primarily sticks to its ground attack, but when it does throw, it hasn’t gone well. The Owls sit 96th in Pass Success Rate and 111th in EPA Per Pass this season.
Quarterback Cam Fancher is averaging -0.11 EPA Per Dropback on the year with a 38% Pass Success Rate, which is well below average.
On the defensive side of the ball, FAU ranks 40th in Success Rate allowed and 33rd in EPA Per Play allowed.
It’s been solid defending opposing aerial attacks, ranking 17th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 18th in EPA Per Pass allowed and 36th in PFF Coverage grade. FAU also ranks 24th in PFF’s Pass Rush grades, which could pose a mismatch against a bad USF offensive line.
The Owls have been worse against the run, coming in at 72nd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 75th in EPA per Rush allowed. They’re 127th in PFF Run Defense grade and 111th in PFF Tackling grade, so this is where opponents want to attack this defense.
FAU vs USF Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how FAU and USF match up statistically:
USF Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 117 | 91 |
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| Line Yards | 78 | 102 |
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| Pass Success | 117 | 67 |
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| Havoc | 72 | 51 |
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| Finishing Drives | 93 | 79 |
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| Quality Drives | 131 | 94 |
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Florida Atlantic Offense vs. USF Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 103 | 14 |
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| Line Yards | 45 | 10 |
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| Pass Success | 92 | 120 |
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| Havoc | 106 | 46 |
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| Finishing Drives | 114 | 117 |
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| Quality Drives | 99 | 79 |
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Florida Atlantic Owls” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Florida-Atlantic-Owls-Logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 49 | 111 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 6 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 124 | 84 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.3 (1) | 27.1 (64) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (88) | 59% (44) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How to Bet My USF vs FAU Pick” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
Florida Atlantic wants to run the ball. Unfortunately for the Owls, that’s the strength of the USF defense.
If they want to score points in this matchup, they’ll need to rely on Fancher to get it done through the air. Fancher hasn’t been good this season but will at least be facing a pass defense that has struggled.
South Florida runs a pass-heavy offensive scheme but hasn’t done so effectively with Archie at quarterback.
Head coach Alex Golesh has been playing coy with announcing who will start at quarterback, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that Brown will still be sidelined.
The place to attack FAU’s defense is on the ground, but I don’t know that USF will be willing or able to do this.
The Bulls have been bad at run blocking this season and largely inefficient on the ground, so I think Florida Atlantic may have the upper hand here.
I would lean toward the under in this game due to these mismatches between offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses between the two teams.
However, USF is the fastest team in the country in terms of seconds per play, and FAU is above average as well. That could lead to a higher-scoring game than expected — even with offenses that aren’t uber-efficient.
Instead, I’ll take Florida Atlantic in this matchup. I think the Owls have the better quarterback situation and defense in this matchup. They’re currently two-point underdogs. but I would rather just play them on the moneyline at +120.
Pick: Florida Atlantic ML (+120 · Play to +105)
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USF vs FAU Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
USF heads to Boca Raton to play FAU on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
USF vs FAU Betting Trends
- 54% of bets and 65% of the money are on South Florida to cover the spread
- 36% of bets and 94% of the money on the moneyline are on FAU to win outright
- 71% of bets and 80% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
USF vs FAU Weather
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