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UNLV vs Oregon State Prediction, Odds and Picks — College Football Week 8

If you’re a true college football sicko, this game is for you.

The UNLV Rebels (5-1, 2-0 MWC) head up to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Oregon State Beavers (4-2) in Corvallis, Oregon at 10 p.m. ET on The CW.

Is this a Pac-12 game? Is this a Mountain West game? Who knows!

Regardless, UNLV is favored by 6.5 points across most major sportsbooks, and the over/under is set at 59.5 points.

Check out my UNLV vs Oregon State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19, below.

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  • UNLV vs Oregon State Pick: Over 59.5 points

My UNLV-Oregon State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at ESPN BET, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

UNLV vs Oregon State Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • UNLV vs Oregon State Point Spread: UNLV -6.5 (-110) · Oregon State +6.5 (-110)
  • UNLV vs Oregon State Total: Over/Under 59.5
  • UNLV vs Oregon State Moneyline: UNLV -260 · Oregon State +210

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UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: No Sluka? No Problem

Remember when UNLV starting quarterback Matthew Sluka left the team? It feels like a year ago even though it was less than a month ago.

And that’s because Hajj-Malik Williams has come in and done a great job at quarterback. In fact, he’s been better than Sluka in the three games he started, throwing for 642 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception while completing 77% of his passes.

He’s thrown for three touchdowns in each of his three starts, and when you add in his 325 rushing yards and two scores, Williams is operating the Go-Go offense better than Sluka did.

Add in wide receiver Ricky White III (526 yards and 8 TDs) and a run game that’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and this is a tough offense to stop. UNLV ranks fourth in the country in scoring at 45.3 points per game  after all.

The offensive analytics back up the scoreboard and the eye test, as the Rebels are top-30 in most categories.

Defensively, UNLV is giving up 22.2 points per game. While that’s a respectable number, Syracuse still dropped 44 on the Rebels in Vegas two weeks ago. Oregon State is capable of a similar performance.

But UNLV can still throw a wrench in its opponent’s offensive operation. The Rebels have 16 sacks as a team and are tied for the nation’s lead in interceptions with 13 picks, including four apiece for linebacker Jackson Woodard and safety Jalen Catalon.

[expertpickswidget league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226910″ date=”20241019″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview: Strong Ground Game

Life in the Pac-2 has been very topsy-turvy for Oregon State.

The Beavers enter this game 4-2 with dominant wins over San Diego State and Purdue, but a blowout loss to Oregon and a loss to Nevada last week have damped the Beavers’ dam, if you will.

To its credit, Oregon State can still run the ball like no other. The Beavers’ 256.0 rushing yards per game ranks sixth in the country, and they rush for 5.3 yards per carry.

Anthony Hankerson paves the way with 639 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, and Jam Griffin and quarterback Gevani McCoy add seven more rushing scores.

It’s no surprise that the Beavers are eighth in Rush Success Rate, 12th in Line Yards and seventh in Quality Drives with how well they run the ball.

The problem is McCoy has three touchdown passes compared to five picks. All five of those interceptions have been in the last two weeks, and it’s not like he played well against Oregon, so it sure looks like he isn’t responding well to a higher level of competition after starting for FCS Idaho last year.

Defensively … well, one might say the beaver dam has sprung a leak.

Oregon State’s 26.8 points allowed per game looks respectable, but an early-season shutout of SDSU is clearly impacting that number. Since then, Oregon scored 49 on the Beavers, Colorado State put up 31 and Nevada dropped 42 last weekend.

This team has only four sacks and three interceptions, and that lack of pressure on the offense just isn’t going to get the job done.

UNLV should be able to march up and down the field on this OSU defense that ranks 124th in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, and 125th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

UNLV vs Oregon State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Oregon State match up statistically:

UNLV Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 53 124
Line Yards 20 124
Pass Success 15 57
Havoc 57 93
Finishing Drives 30 125
Quality Drives 28 82
Oregon State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 8 34
Line Yards 12 70
Pass Success 42 63
Havoc 21 28
Finishing Drives 44 110
Quality Drives 7 25
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 91 122
PFF Coverage 20 45
Special Teams SP+ 10 95
Middle 8 20 5
Seconds per Play 27.9 (80) 28.8 (101)
Rush Rate 71% (4) 64% (11)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The winner of this game is going to need to reach 35 points — maybe more.

UNLV’s offense has scored against everyone, and Oregon State can run the ball very effectively and is scoring 31.2 points in its own right, so this one should be a shootout.

Expect a lot of points in this one, and take the over for UNLV-Oregon State.

Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 61.5)

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”How to Watch UNLV vs Oregon State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
Date: Saturday, Oct. 19
Kickoff Time: 10 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: The CW
UNLV and Oregon State meet on Saturday, Oct. 19 in Corvallis at 10 p.m. ET on The CW.

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  • 94% of bets and 96% of the money are on UNLV to cover the spread
  • 99% of bets and 21% of the money on the moneyline are on UNLV to win outright
  • 88% of bets and 92% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

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[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226910″ date=”2024-10-19″][/gameforecast]

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