[gamematchup league="ncaaf" awaylogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/umass.png" awayname="UMass" awayslug="massachusetts-minutemen" homelogo="https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/emc.png" homename="E. Michigan" homeslug="eastern-michigan-eagles" date="Saturday, Sep 16" time="2:00pm ET" network="ESPN+" col1text="Spread" col2text="Total" col3text="Moneyline" col1awaytext="+7" col1awayline="-110" col1hometext="-7" col1homeline="-110" col2awaytext="51.5" col2hometext="51.5" col2awayline="-110o / -110u" col2homeline="-110o / -110u" col3awaytext="+220" col3hometext="-270" col3awayline="" col3homeline="" bookname="DraftKings" bookthumbnaillogo="https://assets.actionnetwork.com/448044_DKIcon_3x.png" bookreviewslug="draftkings"][/gamematchup]The UMass vs. Eastern Michigan spread is an interesting betting market Saturday of college football Week 3.
Today’s UMass vs. Eastern Michigan betting line today actually fits a college football model cashing 60% of past predictions.
This college football angle, and all the others housed in Bet Labs available for PRO subscribers, only makes picks against the spread.
Eastern Michigan is a touchdown-sized betting favorite Saturday vs. UMass in Week 3.
The Eagles have been one of the best bets against the spread over recent history. Since 2016, Eastern Michigan’s ATS record is top-10 nationally.
The Minutemen, meanwhile, pulled off an upset in the opener.
However, UMass has since dropped back-to-back games against the spread.
Among all the college football lines Saturday of Week 3, UMass vs. Eastern Michigan is the only betting spread matching the winning model.
And the pick is in!
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The college football model with today’s UMass vs. Eastern Michigan pick features a unique perspective.
We as bettors can arrive at a pick or prediction in endless ways, and it traditionally hinges on why we like a certain side, over/under, etc.
This 60%-winning model, on the other hand, seeks out teams to fade and bet against.
Today, Bet Labs’ Scoring Streak Fade has value on the UMass Minutemen against the spread.
The 60%-winning college football model theory claims:
“A poor offensive game can be a sign of things to come. Teams favored at home after scoring less than 10 points in their previous game have struggled to cover the spread.”
Eastern Michigan mustered just six points and 152 total yards in last week’s loss to Minnesota.
Teams in this situation — back at home, laying points after a dud — are typically overvalued, covering the spread just 40% of the time.
[betlabsembed systemid="1038361" systemname="Scoring Streak Fade (PRO)" leaguename="ncaaf" filters="%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Postseason%20or%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20team's%20%201%20Game%20Points%20streak%20is%20between%200%20and%209%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Favorite%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Home%20team%22%5D%7D" amountwon="$8,399" record="304-202-7" winpct="60%"][/betlabsembed]The Eagles have admittedly been awful against the spread as betting favorites.
In fact, they haven’t won a game laying chalk since Oct. 2021 – a span in which Eastern Michigan is 0-6-1 against the spread.
It’s a recommended fade on EMU and pick on UMass against the spread.
PRO Report Prediction: UMass ATS
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For more Action Network coverage of the 2023 NCAAF season, check out the latest college football odds, as well as the public betting percentage breakdowns for all games.