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umass minutemen vs miami oh redhawks-prediction-pick-odds-college football-saturday sept 28

UMass vs Miami (OH) Prediction and Pick for NCAAF Week 5

Miami closes its non-conference play as they welcome the Massachusetts Minutemen to Oxford for a mid-afternoon matchup.

UMass enters this game with a 1-3 record but is coming off its first win of the season. It holds a 1-3 record against the spread and has gone over in two games this season.

Miami (OH) enters this game with a record of 0-3 against three Power 4 opponents. The RedHawks have a 1-2 record against the spread and have gone under in all three games.

As we transition from summer to fall, weather will begin to have small impacts on games, and some of that will be present here. There’s a chance of rain, and winds will be around 9 miles per hour. This will affect the kicking game slightly and could make passing more challenging.

Here’s my UMass vs Miami (OH) predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, September 18.

UMass vs Miami (OH) Odds, Spread, Pick

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  • UMass vs Miami (OH) spread: Miami (OH) -15.5
  • UMass vs Miami (OH) over/under: 44.5 points
  • UMass vs Miami (OH) moneyline: Miami (OH) -750
  • UMass vs Miami (OH) pick: UMass +17.5
My Miami (OH) vs UMass best bet is on the Minutemen spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

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UMass Football

Don Brown’s third season with UMass is off to a rough start.

While the team enters the game after a win over FCS Central Connecticut State, this comes following three consecutive multi-score losses to MAC opponents. The Minutemen are averaging 18.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. The offense has a 36.5% Success Rate and has averaged 3.125 points per opportunity.

Taisun Phommachanh is the centerpiece of the offense. Not only is he averaging 211 passing yards per game, but he leads the team with 55 rush attempts. He completes 62% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt.

While Phommachanh leads the team with 55 rush attempts, his 146 rushing yards are second to Jalen John’s 183. As a team, UMass is averaging 3.0 yards per rush. The Minutemen have a 37.9% Rush Success Rate and a 21.6% stuff rate as a team. The offensive line has not made it easier for the running game, with only 2.7 line yards generated per play.

Even an FCS opponent was able to score on UMass. For the year, UMass allowed 32.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. They also allowed a 34.4% Success Rate and 4.36 points per opportunity.

Miami (OH) Football

It’s been three years since Chuck Martin’s team has failed to make a bowl game, but he has some work to do with this group. In their three losses, the Redhawks have averaged 8.3 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. They have a 37.7% Success Rate and an average of 1.46 points per opportunity.

Miami has leaned on its quarterback’s experience through three games, with a 60.5% pass rate on offense. They have averaged 37.3 pass attempts and 234 passing yards per game. In his sixth year with the program, Brett Gabbert has helped lead the team with a 55.1% completion percentage and 6.4 yards per attempt. As a team, Miami has a 38.7% Pass Success Rate.

In prior seasons, the Chuck Martin offense has leaned heavily on the running game, but game scripts have largely forced Miami into pass-first situations. With more talent-equated matchups on the horizon, it’s fair to expect a return to the mean for the running game.

Through three games, they have averaged 58 rushing yards on 24.3 rushes per game. Keyon Mozee and Jordan Brunson lead the way with 19 and 18 rush attempts, respectively. As a team, Miami has a 36.5% Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that has generated 3.0 line yards per attempt and has allowed a 17.5% stuff rate.

While the offense has struggled mightily through three games, the defense that has been a staple of Martin’s program has remained in the middle of the pack. They allow 22.7 points per game and 6.0 yards per play.

Opponents have averaged a 45% Success Rate, but Miami has held them to just 2.36 points per opportunity. One concern through three games is their 13% havoc rate, which ranks 113th nationally.

UMass vs Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UMass and Miami (OH) match up statistically:

UMass Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 111 115
Line Yards 110 125
Pass Success 114 39
Havoc 118 128
Finishing Drives 118 31
Quality Drives 113 94
Miami (OH) Offense vs. UMass Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 113 33
Line Yards 80 42
Pass Success 98 76
Havoc 112 104
Finishing Drives 134 104
Quality Drives 125 113
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 3 134
PFF Coverage 74 115
Special Teams SP+ 125 111
Middle 8 97 118
Seconds per Play 29.4 (108) 28.2 (82)
Rush Rate 57% (61) 39% (133)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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As of this writing, 77% of bets have been placed on UMass to cover the 17.5-point spread, but large-money bettors strongly favor Miami, as 70% of the money is on the Redhawks.

70% of the bets and 93% of the money have been tracked over the 45.5 total, but according to the PRO Report, sharp action has been tracked on the under.

My preferred play in this game is to back the underdog and take the points.

While both teams have struggled, UMass has kept two out of three games against MAC opponents within two scores and Miami’s pace of play lends itself to a lower-scoring game.

Pick: UMass +17.5 (Play to 17)

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How to Watch UMass vs Miami (OH) Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

[howtowatch gameid=”226739″ date=”20240928″][/howtowatch]

UMass vs Miami (OH) Betting Trends

[bettingtrends gameid=”226739″ date=”20240928″][/bettingtrends]

UMass vs Miami (OH) Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226739″ date=”2024-09-28″][/gameforecast]

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Matt Wispe

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