College Football Odds & Picks for ULM vs Georgia Southern: Value on Eagles?

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Let’s head down to Statesboro, Georgia, where the UL Monroe Warhawks will battle the Georgia Southern Eagles.

Both teams are coming of a loss and looking for a bounce-back opportunity.

The Eagles got trucked last week by JMU and ULM blew a late lead against Texas State. The Eagles are in a much better state than the Warhawks, with their bowl aspirations still alive.

I have a firm opinion on a side here.

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ULM has had a few heartbreaking losses on the season. But the Warhawks can only blame themselves for last week’s abysmal effort in a 41-13 loss to James Madison.

Quarterback Jiya Wright pioneers the ship on offense, but he’s been mediocre. Wright has six touchdowns and five interceptions, sporting a weak 58% completion rate.

There’s not much to say about this offense, averaging 18 points per game.

The Warhawks’ biggest problem is on third down. ULM is converting only 29% of its third-down opportunities.

It won’t get easier this week, facing an Eagles team that is 17th in Havoc generated.

Meanwhile, the defense is in for a long day against an angry Eagles offense. The Warhawks will have to create some Havoc to slow down quarterback Davis Brin, as this group is allowing 32 points per game to opposing offenses.

The key for ULM to stay within this number will be to control the tempo. The Warhawks won’t keep up if they allow the Eagles to dictate the pace.

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The Eagles will be angry this week, and I would be too after getting outclassed against a conference opponent. I expect a valiant effort from head coach Clay Helton and Co. to get their season back on track.

Brin was atrocious last week, as the JMU defensive line created a ton of Havoc. I expect a much better performance from Brin this time around, and I won’t be surprised if he puts up some huge numbers.

The offense is the team’s anchor. It’s top-25 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate. The Eagles also protect the football well and rank 12th in Quality Drives.

The Eagles could finish drives better, as they’re struggling to reach the end zone. But ULM ranks 112th in scoring defense, so we can expect more Georgia Southern touchdowns here.

Defensively, I have concerns about Georgia Southern’s ability to keep its opponents out of the end zone. The Eagles’ defensive metrics are middling.

But I don’t have much concern against an abysmal ULM offense.

The Eagles are strong in the tackling department (16th per Pro Football Focus), and they are an outstanding eighth in the nation in the Middle 8.

Kudos to Coach Helton for managing the team well.

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This is a classic get-right spot for the Eagles.

Ironically, the large spread makes me even more confident in backing them. This is a golden opportunity for the Eagles’ offense to bounce back after being embarrassed last week.

The ULM offense isn’t strong enough to keep up, and I have a feeling the Eagles will turn this into a track meet. The Eagles should be able to exploit the ULM defense all afternoon long.

This is a large number, but I love the Eagles to win huge here. Let’s hope Brin protects the football and covers the number.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Georgia Southern -17 (Play to -18)” linktext=”Bet on the Eagles Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400459826&selectionId=3296868&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]