The UAB Blazers (2-6) will welcome the Connecticut Huskies (6-3) to Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
The Huskies enter this one as 6.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 56.5.
Can the Huskies continue their winning ways, or will this game look like a hangover game after securing bowl eligibility? Continue below for my UConn vs UAB predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, November 9.
UConn vs UAB Odds
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- UConn vs UAB Point Spread: UConn -7.5, UAB +7.5
- UConn vs UAB Total: Over/Under 54.5
- UConn vs UAB Moneyline: UConn -245, UAB +200
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Prediction
My UAB vs. UConn best bet is on the Blazers spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the Spread
UConn vs. UAB Pick: UAB +7.5
Over/Under
PASS
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Connecticut Huskies Betting Preview: Exceeding Expectations
Coach Jim Mora must be pleased with his team thus far, as they have already tied their season best win total already and have three more opportunities to get over that hump. Mora will need to have a great coaching performance this week in practice to have his guys ready and avoid the heightened emotions after securing bowl eligibility.
It’s no secret what the key to success has been for this Connecticut offense all year that has averaged nearly 32 points per game. It all starts with running back Durell Robinson, who is averaging over seven yards per carry, as well as Cam Edwards, who averages nearly five yards per carry.
Coach Mora has built a physical football team, and they will look to impose their will in this one as well. Connecticut ranks 49th in Rush Play Rate, and they rank 79th in Rush Success. Their run game has been steady, but they always find chunk runs due to wearing teams down and staying committed to the run game. This has resulted in a ranking of 40th in Rush Explosiveness.
I suspect the game plan will be no different this week, and they will allow quarterback Joe Fagnano to make some play action reads to generate supplemental offense through the air.
The Huskies defense has been a solid unit all year long, limiting teams to just over 21 points per game. Because of their winning ways this season, their pass defense has seen the lion’s share of the work, given they have often played with a lead, as they rank 49th in Pass Play Rate allowed.
This does not tell the whole story, however. The Huskies pass defense has also been their weak spot, where they rank 100th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 91st in Pass Explosiveness allowed. This will be the area UAB will need to expose if they hope to win this game outright. Outside of the pass defense, the Huskies rank 76th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 55th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
UAB Blazers Betting Preview: Need to Stop the Run
Coach Trent Dilfer has had a rough go at it in his second year in Birmingham. He has four more opportunities on the season to chase his 4-win season from a year ago. Coach Dilfer has bigger aspirations for this program than 4-win seasons though, so he will need to start winning home games to start setting that precedent.
The Blazers offense runs the old school ground-and-pound game, similar to what the Huskies run. Lee Beebee Jr. paces the rushing attack, where he averages nearly five yards per carry on over 100 carries on the season.
The Blazers rank 48th in Rush Play Rate and 33rd in Rush Success Rate. With all of this success on the ground, you would think they have some big run plays as well, but no, they do not. The Blazers rank 129th in Rush Explosiveness, so the key to the Blazers offense is to sustain long scoring drives.
The Blazers have also found some success in the air when needed, where they rank 53rd in Pass Success Rate. They will need to play clean football through the air in order to win this one, while still maintaining their ground game.
The Blazers defense has been bad on the year, allowing 35.5 points per game. The defense has not always been left in a great spot since the Blazers are -9 in the turnover margin. The offense has not done them any favors, but they also haven’t done themselves many favors either in terms of forcing turnovers.
The pass defense for the Blazers has been fantastic, ranking 16th in Pass Success rate allowed, but teams don’t have to pass much against them, when you rank 122nd in Average Field Position allowed.
The problem is, they can’t stop the run. The Blazers rank 108th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 76th in Rush Explosiveness allowed. This defense will need to step up against the Huskies ground game in order to slow this game down and keep it close.
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It feels like UAB is getting UConn in a great spot after the Blazers looked great for the first time all year.
Both teams run the ball well, so I suspect this to be a low scoring game.
UAB played a fairly clean game last week at home, so I think we’ll see them replicate a similar performance by taking care of the football and keeping this one close, with potential to win this one outright. Give me the Blazers +6.5.
Pick: UAB +7.5 (-110, bet365)
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| Location: | Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
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