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UCF vs West Virginia Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, November 23

The UCF Knights (4-6, 2-5 Big 12) head to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (5-5, 4-3) in a Big 12 battle on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

It’s been a bit of a disappointing season for the Knights, who came into the year with hopes of being a dark horse in the Big 12. Now at 4-6, they need to win out just to clinch a bowl bid.

Something similar can be said about a Mountaineers team that surprised last year. After a 9-4 season in 2023, WVU needs one more win to reach a bowl with its conference title hopes out the window.

UCF enters this game as a -3 road favorite with the over/under set at 63.5. So, where does the betting value lie?

Let’s dive into my UCF vs. West Virginia predictions and college football picks for their Big 12 battle on Saturday, Nov. 23.

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  • UCF vs. West Virginia Pick: UCF -3

My West Virginia vs. UCF best bet is on the Knights to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

UCF vs West Virginia Odds

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  • UCF vs West Virginia Spread: UCF -3 (-110) · West Virginia +3 (-110)
  • UCF vs West Virginia Over/Under: 63.5 Points
  • UCF vs West Virginia Moneyline: UCF -155 · West Virginia +130

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It’s been an interesting season in Orlando.

After drawing some comparisons to Cam Newton from head coach Gus Malzahn, quarterback KJ Jefferson was benched for Jacurri Brown, who started against Cincinnati and Iowa State. Well, the revolving door continued, as freshman Dylan Rizk has since taken over.

Rizk has been a sight to behold for the Knights, throwing for 625 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception in three games (two starts).

His performance in UCF’s 56-12 demolition of Arizona proved to be extremely noteworthy as he went 20-of-25 for 294 yards with three touchdowns and no picks.

If Rizk plays at that same level, he could do some real damage against a West Virginia defense that ranks 131st in Passing Success Rate allowed and 130th in PFF Coverage grade.

However, the Knights’ bread and butter is the ground game.

UCF runs the ball 63.7% of the time with ranks of fourth in Rushing Success Rate and second in Offensive Line Yards.

RJ Harvey has been an absolute bell-cow for the Knights. Over the past four games, he has put up 634 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s right — an average of 158.8 yards and 2.5 scores per game.

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Like UCF, West Virginia wants to keep the ball on the ground. However, the Mountaineers don’t do it as well as the Knights.

WVU comes into this game 71st in Rushing Success Rate, but 37th in Rushing EPA. While it seems possible that the ‘Neers could come through with some big plays on the ground, the Knights rank seventh in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 19th in Rushing EPA allowed.

Quarterback Garrett Greene returned from injury against Baylor last week and looked rusty, completing 19 of his 39 passes for 237 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

That’s about par for the course, though. West Virginia hasn’t had a threatening aerial attack this season, sitting outside the top 130 in both Passing Success Rate and Passing EPA.

However, Greene posted his best rushing game of the season against the Bears, going for 129 yards and two scores.

With running backs Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson both failing to eclipse 100 yards on the ground in each of the past five games, letting Greene go to work on the ground might be the Mountaineers’ best option.

UCF vs West Virginia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and West Virginia match up statistically:

UCF Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 4 37
Line Yards 2 29
Pass Success 84 131
Havoc 64 111
Finishing Drives 74 128
Quality Drives 36 97
West Virginia Offense vs. UCF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 71 7
Line Yards 49 15
Pass Success 82 87
Havoc 85 65
Finishing Drives 22 112
Quality Drives 18 75
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 86 16
PFF Coverage 59 130
Special Teams SP+ 87 26
Middle 8 80 44
Seconds per Play 24.9 (24) 27.6 (78)
Rush Rate 64% (10) 61% (30)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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UCF has far too many advantages in this game.

Opponents want to beat the Knights defense through the air, but the Mountaineers haven’t shown they can do that. In fact, Greene has topped 250 yards passing just once this season.

When it comes to defending WVU’s ground game, UCF has key edges in Success Rate, EPA and Line Yards.

Plus, the Mountaineers have gone just 2-4 in Morgantown this season. That’s bad news against a UCF team coming off a bye — especially when it boasts a superior ground game and may have found something with Rizk under center.

In a late November ground-and-pound game, I’ll back the Knights to keep their postseason hopes alive.

Pick: UCF -3 or Better

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Location: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
Date: Saturday, Nov. 23
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPNU

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