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tulsa golden hurricane vs usf bulls-prediction-pick-odds-college football-nov 23

Tulsa vs USF Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, November 23

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-7, 1-5 AAC) travel to Tampa to face the South Florida Bulls (5-5, 3-3) in American Athletic Conference action on Saturday, Nov 23. This game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+.

The Bulls are peaking late in the season and have won 3 of their last 4, putting themselves in position to secure bowl eligibility with a win in either of their last 2 games.

Tulsa has battled through a difficult season in which the defense has played especially poorly in recent weeks. This will be another tough challenge this week for the Golden Hurricane, which is up against a surging USF team continuing to build momentum.

USF comes in as a 17-point favorite with the over/under set at 61.5.

Learn about where the betting value lies with my Tulsa vs. South Florida predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

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  • Tulsa vs USF Pick: USF -17.5

My USF vs. Tulsa best bet is on the Bulls to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Tulsa vs USF Odds

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  • Tulsa vs USF Point Spread: Tulsa +17.5 (-112) · USF -17.5 (-108)
  • Tulsa vs USF Total: Over/Under 61
  • Tulsa vs USF Moneyline: Tulsa +575 · USF -850

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Tulsa enters this game off a deflating Thursday night home loss last week against East Carolina, which followed a bye week.

The Hurricane came out fired up and played with high energy all game as the heavy underdogs. They never were outside the 16.5-point spread and led the game in the fourth quarter.

Tulsa used an interception return for a touchdown, two goal-line defensive stops and four overall turnovers to limit the damage as the Pirates were able to move the ball at will.

Offensively, Cooper Legas was efficient in completing 63% of his passes and throwing three touchdowns to Joseph Williams, who finished with 158 yards on five catches.

Despite the final score, ECU left several touchdowns on the field and handed Tulsa an easy pick-six in what played out to be a really close game but, in reality, wasn’t.

It’s hard to expect that type of turnover success week after week and if Tulsa doesn’t see the turnover fortune this week, this game could turn ugly.

Tulsa has committed to the ground game but has been largely inefficient, as the last four games have seen the Hurricane run for just 108 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry.

USF should have success against the run here, ranking inside the top 40 in both Defensive EPA Per Rush and Rushing Success Rate allowed.

Defensively, Tulsa has been terrible all season, and the signs have been there on this unit all season. The defense is allowing 458 yards per game and sits in the bottom 10 nationally in Defensive EPA Per Play and Explosiveness allowed.

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South Florida comes in off a 59-24 dismantling of Charlotte last week.

USF was in a fight early in this one but scored 31 points in the third quarter, including two defensive touchdowns. The convincing win was no fluke, as the Bulls dominated the game at the line of scrimmage on both sides.

USF ran for an astonishing 425 yards on 8.9 yards per carry, and the defensive line recorded five sacks and two fumble recoveries.

The Bulls have the advantage when they line up and run the football, as the team is averaging 188 yards per game and five yards per carry. USF ranks 19th nationally in Offensive EPA Per Rush and eighth in Rushing Explosiveness.

I would expect Tulsa’s defensive line to wear down as this game progresses, as we saw play out last week when it faced East Carolina.

The Bulls lined up and ran the ball 48 times last week for 425 yards against Charlotte and had a similar output recently against FAU. They should see similar success again this week, lining up against a Tulsa defense that has allowed over 500 yards each of the last three weeks.

Tulsa vs USF Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and USF match up statistically:

Tulsa Offense vs. USF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 122 26
Line Yards 63 20
Pass Success 126 76
Havoc 87 39
Finishing Drives 89 106
Quality Drives 116 58
USF Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 98 20
Line Yards 39 53
Pass Success 116 132
Havoc 52 82
Finishing Drives 100 130
Quality Drives 123 103
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 100 73
PFF Coverage 132 85
Special Teams SP+ 101 23
Middle 8 108 104
Seconds per Play 24.9 (25) 21.3 (1)
Rush Rate 52% (80) 51% (77)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I’m laying the number here with USF this week. The Bulls have a lot to play for in this matchup and should exploit Tulsa’s poor front seven in this matchup.

Tulsa has been bad this year in early downs and ends up facing far too many third downs — situations it’s not successful in. The Golden Hurricane are converting just 38% of third downs this season and are 7-of-22 on fourth down.

This game has the potential to go sideways for Tulsa given its lack of rushing prowess and the fact it’s going up against a defensive front seven that has resided in the opponent’s backfield often. USF has recorded 28 sacks and 76 tackles for loss this season, with 18 of those sacks coming in the last four weeks.

The Bulls’ ground game should wear down Tulsa late in the second half, where USF should pull away and win convincingly.

This is a motivated team still searching for bowl eligibility, something Tulsa is no longer aspiring for.

Pick: South Florida -17

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Tulsa vs USF Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Date: Saturday, Nov. 23
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN+

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Joshua Nunn

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