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College Football Odds, Picks for Tulsa vs. FAU

Tulsa vs. FAU Odds

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Florida Atlantic welcomes Tulsa to FAU Stadium Saturday night for the Owls’ American Athletic Conference debut.

FAU left Conference USA over the summer and also hired a new leader in former Texas and Houston coach Tom Herman.

Meanwhile, the 3-2 Golden Hurricane enter off consecutive wins over Northern Illinois and Temple.

The Owls have had extra time to prepare for this matchup and are coming off a bye, but I still believe the visitors possess all of the betting value in this contest.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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FAU isn’t the only team rolling out a new coach. Tulsa also went in a new direction this summer and brought in former Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson.

His offense has already been on display this season and Tulsa, despite dealing with multiple quarterback injuries, ranks 31st in the country in rush offense.

Tulsa has already started three different players under center this year and with Cardell Williams playing so well in the last two victories, I don’t believe the coaching staff will be rushing Braylon Braxton back into action.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Hurricane defense ranks in the top 20 in turnovers and has racked up 10 takeaways through five games.

That could be a key stat against an Owls offense that ranks 125th in giveaways.

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In addition to the move to a new conference, there was a lot of excitement surrounding Herman’s hire at FAU. He led both Houston and Texas to bowl games in each of his six seasons.

However, the success hasn’t shown up yet for the Owls, and the schedule hasn’t helped Herman’s transition to Boca Raton, Florida.

FAU has played on the road at two Power Five schools — Clemson and Illinois. Herman’s squad also had to play Ohio, one of the top teams in the Mid-American Conference.

Another issue has been the health of quarterback Casey Thompson. The transfer from Nebraska is out for the season after suffering a knee injury in the Clemson loss, which means Daniel Richardson will continue to be the guy throwing the football.

With the advanced metrics on defense not looking good, there will be a lot of pressure on Richardson to put up some points and sustain drives if the Owls are going to be successful.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Florida Atlantic match up statistically:

Tulsa Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 50 93
Line Yards 37 99
Pass Success 48 75
Havoc 126 111
Finishing Drives 34 85
Quality Drives 83 50
Florida Atlantic Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 111 73
Line Yards 35 100
Pass Success 95 128
Havoc 118 115
Finishing Drives 122 93
Quality Drives 119 83
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 123 7
PFF Coverage 133 53
Special Teams SP+ 54 95
Middle 8 85 132
Seconds per Play 26.1 (52) 24.2 (21)
Rush Rate 67.1% (7) 39.3% (126)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tulsa vs. Florida Atlantic” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

When you compare these teams, Tulsa’s offense is the one unit that has the clear advantage. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, I trust the Golden Hurricane to put points on the board.

So, my best bet is to take the Golden Hurricane at +4 at DraftKings. I also wouldn’t be against a sprinkle on the moneyline at a plus price.

For starters, the visitors rank 50th in Rushing Success Rate and 37th in Line Yards. Tulsa should be able to control the line of scrimmage against an FAU defense that’s outside the top 90 in both metrics.

Meanwhile, Tulsa’s offense is in the top 50 in both Passing Success Rate (48th) and Finishing Drives (34th), while the Owls are in the bottom 30 in most of those offensive categories.

Yes, Florida Atlantic has had a tough schedule, but Tulsa has also played No. 7 Washington and No. 12 Oklahoma.

I don’t love fading a team off a bye, but I also feel Tulsa’s offense has a lot more potential for points and can cover on the road.

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Brett Pund

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