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tulane vs navy-preview-prediction-pick-odds-Mario Williams

Tulane vs Navy Prediction, Odds, Picks, How to Watch College Football Saturday

Do not be confused. This weekend’s biggest game will not be played in Athens, Georgia, but in Annapolis, Maryland.

No. 25 Tulane (8-2, 6-0 AAC) will travel up to face the United States Naval Academy (7-2, 5-1), with the winner all but locking up a spot in the AAC Championship game.

Tulane played a difficult non-conference schedule and dropped two early games to Kansas State and Oklahoma.

But they have rebounded to win its next seven games and new head coach Jon Sumrall has this team rolling. Sumrall took the Green Wave job coming off back-to-back Sun Belt Championships at Troy and now is favored to win a third straight conference title in his first year in the AAC.

Navy debuted a new offensive scheme under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic and took the nation by storm, rattling off six straight wins to start the season.

However, these ships have taken on water in recent weeks, getting blown out by Notre Dame and then losing a bad one at Rice. It was able to get a win over South Florida last week, but the offense still sputtered a bit amid quarterback injury speculation.

Army seems destined for a spot in the conference championship game. Its sea-bound rivals would love to meet them there, but Tulane looks like a title wave right now, with eyes set on its third straight title game appearance.

Tulane is a 7-point favorite on the spread with a 52-point over/under.

Read more for my Tulane vs. Navy predictions and college football picks.

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  • Tulane vs Navy Pick: Tulane -7

My Tulane-Navy best bet is on the Green Wave to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Tulane vs Navy Odds, Betting Line, Spread

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  • Tulane vs Navy Spread: Tulane -7.5 · Navy +7.5
  • Tulane vs Navy Over/Under: 49.5
  • Tulane vs Navy Moneyline: Tulane ML -275 · Navy +225

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Redshirt Freshman Darian Mensah had the difficult task of replacing the best quarterback in Tulane history, Michael Pratt and he has managed to hold his own. Mensah is completing over 65% of his passes and has thrown 16 touchdowns with just four interceptions.

Mensah ranks eighth in the country, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and has two explosive receivers in Mario Williams and Dontae Fleming.

This offense isn’t going to throw a ton, but it’s extremely effective when it does, ranking eighth in the country in Pass Success Rate.

As efficient as the passing attack has been, it’s the run game that sets up the pass and they have one of the best running backs in the country.

Makhi Hughes is averaging 120.9 yards per game this season and has scored 13 touchdowns on the ground. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and leads the conference in missed tackles forced.

Backup Arnold Barnes III has been very effective as well when Hughes needs a break, and backup quarterback Ty Thompson has been used in packages around the goal line as well, rushing for six touchdowns this season.

It seemed like the Tulane defense would take a step back, given all the pieces they lost on that side of the ball, but Sumrall was known for having excellent defenses at Troy and he did not allow any drop-off at all.

The Green Wave defense has been fantastic. They rank in the Top 20 in Success Rate allowed against the rush and the pass. Their secondary is outstanding and they do a good job at creating havoc and not allowing finishing drives.

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New Offensive Coordinator Drew Cronic was hired and installed a new hybrid Wing-T offensive scheme that he describes as a “millennial version” of the Wing-T; evolving to incorporate spread option principles and run-pass option schemes.

Quarterback Blake Horvath has thrived in this system from day one. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes and is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, the most of any player with at least 75 dropbacks.

His favorite target is Eli Heidenreich, whose 30 catches are more than double the next player.

Navy ranks 10th in the country in Pass Success Rate, but this is still a service academy.

It has the third highest rush rate in the country. Horvath is averaging 96.7 rushing yards per game and has 13 rushing scores on the season. He and fullback Alex Tecza are each averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

Despite being associated with the sea, Navy has actually been most effective at defending against aerial attacks this season. The Midshipmen rank 10th in the country in Pass Success Rate and are top 25 in PFF’s Coverage Grade and Tackling.

Other than the blowout loss to Notre Dame, Navy has only allowed more than 24 points in one other game all year, a shootout win against Memphis. It has held opponents to one passing touchdown or less in six of their nine games.

Tulane vs Navy Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Navy match up statistically:

Tulane Offense vs. Navy Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 43 98
Line Yards 32 115
Pass Success 8 10
Havoc 13 72
Finishing Drives 19 28
Quality Drives 10 24
Navy Offense vs. Tulane Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 33 17
Line Yards 39 27
Pass Success 80 4
Havoc 18 21
Finishing Drives 7 20
Quality Drives 51 21
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 97 25
PFF Coverage 37 21
Special Teams SP+ 45 108
Middle 8 5 7
Seconds per Play 31.1 (132) 30.0 (123)
Rush Rate 66% (5) 77% (3)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I am concerned about Horvath’s health for the Midshipmen.

In the last three games, they have been held post their three lowest-scoring outputs of the season. While struggling against Notre Dame is understandable, they should be scoring on Rice and South Florida.

Horvath has looked off the last few weeks and appears to be dealing with an injury. He has just one touchdown pass and three interceptions over the last three weeks and has averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in each of the last two games, with two worst rushing performances.

Meanwhile, Tulane is rolling and has everything clicking right now. On offense, they are averaging 41 points per game, the fourth most in the country.

They are in the top five in rushing rate and have one of the best backs in the country. Hughes should have a field day against this Navy defense that ranks 98th in Russ Success Rate allowed.

Defensively, the Wave has been terrific. They do everything well and have allowed 10 points or less in four of their six conference games. The run defense had issues early as they worked in new players and a new coaching staff, but they have not allowed more than 120 yards in the ground for six straight games.

Tulane’s No. 1 goal is obviously to win the AAC Championship, but in the 12-team playoff era, a Boise State stumble would open the door for the Green Wave as a possible playoff team.

And they will need some style points to ensure they get the nod over the other Group of 5 Champions.

When they have had the opportunity to step on the throat and run away from teams, they have done just that. They beat Charlotte 34-3 two weeks ago and pounded Temple 52-6. Obviously, Navy is much better than those teams. But they are not a team built to come from behind.

If Tulane can build an early lead and force a possibly injured Horvath to throw them back into the game, that plays right into the strength of this Tulane defense, and this could get sideways.

Tulane is 8-2 against the spread this season and 7-1 ATS as a favorite. When the Wave win, they win big.

Pick: Tulane -7 or better

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Location: Navy-Marine Corps Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Date: Saturday, Nov. 16
Kickoff Time: 12 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN2

Tulane vs Navy will be played at Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.

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