The MAC meets Conference USA in Bowling Green, Kentucky, on Saturday, Sept. 21, when the Toledo Rockets (3-0) take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-1). Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
This matchup will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs, and oddsmakers are expecting a closely contested matchup.
Toledo comes into this matchup undefeated on the year and fresh off a big win over SEC foe Mississippi State. The Rockets have looked impressive this far, defeating their opposition by an average margin of 26 points.
Western Kentucky has gotten back on track after losing its season opener to Alabama. It shut out a directional rival in Eastern Kentucky and then followed it up with a 28-point win over Middle Tennessee.
We’ve seen market support for both sides of this matchup throughout this week. As of writing, Toledo sits as a -2.5 favorite with the over/under at 60.
What side should you be on? Let’s find out as I make my Toledo vs. Western Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
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My Western Kentucky vs. Toledo best bet is for the Rockets to win and cover the spread of -2.5.
- Toledo vs. Western Kentucky Prediction: Toledo -2.5
Toledo vs Western Kentucky Odds, Betting Line, Spread
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- Toledo vs Western Kentucky Point Spread: Toledo -2.5 · Western Kentucky +2.5
- Toledo vs Western Kentucky Total: Over/Under 61.5 Points
- Toledo vs Western Kentucky Moneyline: Toledo ML -130 · Western Kentucky ML +110
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Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Ball Carriers Bound to Succeed
As I alluded to in the opening, the Toledo offense has been humming so far this season. They are averaging 39.5 points per game and six yards per play.
The Rockets have been very effective through the air. Quarterback Tucker Gleason has been tremendous, completing over 61 percent of his passes while averaging nearly nine yards per completion.
Gleason and his receiving corps should give the Hilltoppers troubles, as Western Kentucky’s secondary has not proven very stout thus far. They come into this matchup ranked 133rd in passing success rate allowed and 131st in PFF’s coverage grading.
On paper, the Rockets appear to be a run-first offense, but much of their rushing volume has come in garbage time when they are ahead by multiple scores. In a game that is expected to be much tighter, we should see the Rockets continually exploit the Hilltoppers through the air.
However, they are also primed to succeed on the ground. Western Kentucky has surrendered nearly six yards per rush against them and is 110th in rushing success rate allowed.
Toledo will feature a bevy of ball carriers, which will only compound Western Kentucky’s struggles. Don’t expect the Rockets’ offense to slow down in this matchup.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview: Offense Will Set the Tone
On the other side of the ball, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have found their groove offensively over the last two weeks by keeping the ball in the air. Last week, Caden Veltkamp showed out, tossing five touchdown passes and racking up 398 yards in the win over MTSU.
Veltkamps’ performance has likely cemented him as the new starter going forward, and he will have an opportunity to build off his last game against Toledo.
The Rockets have been great at shutting down the run game, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry, but the jury is still out on their secondary.
However, looking at all the numbers, it would appear that Toledo’s secondary is in for a better result than what we’ve seen. They rank 107th in opponent completion percentage allowed and 76th in yards per pass allowed but are 23rd in PFF’s coverage grading.
The play of the Hilltoppers’ offensive line will determine their offensive success in this game.
Toledo ranks 13th in sack rate and is very solid against the run, while Western Kentucky has not gotten much done on the ground but only allowed one sack to Alabama.
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Toledo vs. Western Kentucky Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Western Kentucky match up statistically:
Toledo Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 60 | 110 |
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| Line Yards | 62 | 97 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Toledo” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/told.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 30 | 133 |
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| Havoc | 19 | 118 |
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| Finishing Drives | 37 | 83 |
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| Quality Drives | 32 | 89 |
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Western Kentucky Offense vs. Toledo Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 81 | 62 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Toledo” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/told.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 87 | 84 |
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| Pass Success | 59 | 80 |
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| Havoc | 33 | 21 |
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| Finishing Drives | 67 | 73 |
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| Quality Drives | 68 | 61 |
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Western Kentucky Hilltoppers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wky.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 48 | 37 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 131 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 119 | 123 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 46 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (46) | 25.6 (35) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (36) | 43% (122) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How to Bet My Toledo vs Western Kentucky Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
We’ve seen the market support both sides of the spread here. Toledo received money early, stretching them out to as big as a three-point favorite. However, there was then some buy-back at that key number, and the market settled at 2.5.
I was a part of the early Toledo support, grabbing them at -1, but I would play them up to 2.5. Their edges on the offensive side of the ball will be undeniable in this matchup and should allow them to control every aspect.
Pick: Toledo -2.5 or Better
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How to Watch Toledo vs. Western Kentucky
| Location: | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Western Kentucky vs. Toledo Betting Trends
- Western Kentucky is 2-1 straight up and 2-1 ATS.
- Toledo is 3-0 and 2-1 ATS this season.
Toledo-Western Kentucky Weather
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