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Texas Tech vs TCU Prediction, Odds, Picks, How to Watch College Football Week 9

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) and TCU Horned Frogs (4-3, 2-2) meet in Fort Worth on Saturday afternoon for a Big 12 rivalry for the Saddle Trophy.

The Red Raiders look to get back on track after a 59-35 loss to Baylor last week, entering the contest at 5-2 overall.

Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have won 2 of their last 3 to move to 4-3 on the season.

Sign me up for an in-state rivalry on national television with a high total. I’ll break down the action and give my Texas Tech vs. TCU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.

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  • Texas Tech vs TCU Pick: Texas Tech +7

My Texas Tech vs TCU best bet is on the Red Raiders spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Texas Tech vs TCU Odds, Spread, Betting Lines

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  • Texas Tech vs TCU Spread: TCU -5
  • Texas Tech vs TCU Over/Under: 66.5
  • Texas Tech vs TCU Moneyline: TCU -200, Texas Tech +170

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Texas Tech Football Preview

After back-to-back bowl seasons, coach Joey McGuire is looking to take his program to the next level by pushing into the conference title talks. The key to success under McGuire has been an explosive offense, and it is no different this season.

One of the stars on the Red Raiders offense is running back Tahj Brooks. He needs just 144 yards on the ground to become only the ninth Big 12 player in history to reach 4,000 career rushing yards.

For the year, Brooks ranks third in the country with 134 rushing yards per game. He has topped the century mark in every contest and only failed to find the endzone in one game.

It also helps Brooks to have a solid quarterback to keep defenses from stacking the box against him. Behren Morton is one of only nine FBS quarterbacks and the lone one in the conference to have 200 passing attempts this season with three or fewer interceptions.

With Brooks and Morton playing well, it gives the Red Raiders a chance against anyone.

TCU Football Preview

It feels like a distant memory to remember TCU playing for the national championship under Sonny Dykes. The coach is still in place, and the philosophy is still there to get the Horned Frogs back in contention for championships.

Similar to the Red Raiders, TCU also boasts a strong quarterback in Josh Hoover. He comes into this one ranking fourth in the country in passing yards and tying for third with 34 completions of at least 20 yards.

Sadly, his streak of nine consecutive games with at least 20 completions and two touchdown passes was snapped last week at Utah. It was the longest by a Big 12 quarterback since Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden from 2010-11.

The main beneficiary of Hoover’s passes has been receiver Jack Bech. He is in the Top 10 nationally in receiving yards and touchdown catches, and he’ll be the key target here.

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TCU vs Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. TCU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 43 68
Line Yards 48 87
Pass Success 71 36
Havoc 53 86
Finishing Drives 4 89
Quality Drives 29 81
TCU Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 76 73
Line Yards 102 64
Pass Success 20 99
Havoc 49 123
Finishing Drives 45 88
Quality Drives 106 119
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 115 30
PFF Coverage 127 27
Special Teams SP+ 32 118
Middle 8 23 46
Seconds per Play 24.1 (16) 24.4 (19)
Rush Rate 45% (109) 42% (120)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This feels like a typical Big 12 game over the previous seasons between two high-flying offenses, with whoever has the ball last getting the win. The variance in these types of games typically leads me to take the underdog, and that is where I am going here.

So, my best bet is to take Texas Tech at +6.5 on the spread, which I would play down to +4.5. I could only look at overs on any total or prop in what should be a shootout.

Ultimately, this is going to come down to who can either get extra possessions or get stops defensively. I think multiple factors point me to the visitors.

If we’re looking at turnovers, TCU comes into this matchup ranked 131st in the FBS in giveaways per game at 2.5. This is the same squad that is minus-10 on the season in turnover margin.

As for the defense, it does look like the Horned Frogs would be the side on paper. However, I’m not fully buying this due to the opposition played so far.

Yes, TCU is ranked inside the Top 40 in both PFF’s Coverage grades and Pass Success Rate allowed. I think this is primarily down to the weak passing attacks the Frogs have faced in Stanford, LIU, Kansas, Houston and Utah.

When they stepped up in competition against UCF and SMU, those schools combined for 101 points, TCU is also inside the Bottom 10 among Power 4 programs in Pass Play Rate on defense.

I just believe this is too many points, and I think Texas Tech is live to win this outright to keep the Saddle Trophy for another year.

Pick: Texas Tech +7 (Play to +4.5)

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Texas Tech vs TCU TV Channel, Start Time, How to Watch

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FOX

Texas Tech takes on TCU in Fort Worth on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

Texas Tech vs TCU Betting Trends

  • 95% of bets and 89% of the money are on Texas Tech to cover the spread
  • 98% of bets and 97% of the money on the moneyline are on TCU to win outright
  • 78% of bets and 78% of the money are on the under

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

Texas Tech vs TCU Weather

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Brett Pund

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