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Texas Tech vs Arizona Prediction, Pick, Odds and Best Bets Tonight

Two undefeated teams in Big 12 play square off in Tuscon on Saturday night, as the Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1 overall) visit the Arizona Wildcats (3-1). The game kicks off at 11 p.m. ET live on FOX and is streaming on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app, and other streaming platforms.

Texas Tech is fresh off a 44-41 victory in a shootout against Cincinnati, while Arizona pulled off a big upset going into Salt Lake City and beating Utah last week by the score of 23-10.

Arizona is a consensus 5.5-point favorite over Texas Tech on the spread (Arizona -5.5), with the over/under currently set at 64 points. The Wildcats are -215 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Red Raiders are +175 underdogs to pull off the upset.

Where does the betting lie in this matchup? Read further for my preview and Texas Tech vs. Arizona predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.

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Spread

I’m backing the Red Raiders as underdogs and taking the points in this one, although the market has moved in the hour before kickoff, with Texas Tech now down to +5.5 across the board.

Over/Under

I don’t have a bet on the total for this Saturday night clash in Tucson.

Moneyline

I see value on Texas Tech on the spread, but not enough to recommend betting them outright as underdogs.

Prediction

  • Texas Tech vs. Arizona Pick: Texas Tech +6.5 (Bet to +6)

My Arizona vs. Texas Tech best bet is on the Red Raiders to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Texas Tech vs Arizona Odds

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  • Texas Tech vs Arizona spread: Arizona -5.5
  • Texas Tech vs Arizona Over/Under: 64 points
  • Texas Tech vs Arizona Moneyline: Arizona -215, Texas Tech +175

Betting Trends

  • 59% of the bets and 50% of the money are on Arizona to cover the spread.
  • 42% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the over.
  • 94% of the bets and 97% of the money are on Arizona to win outright.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Texas Tech vs Arizona Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tt.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ari.png”][/subheader]
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Texas Tech Football” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tt.png”][/subheader]

The season’s first two games did not go according to plan for Joey Maguire and Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders needed overtime to escape Abilene Christian 52-51, and then lost by 21 to Washington State on the road.

Something flipped after that loss, and Tech has looked like a completely different football team. It started with a blowout of North Texas and then bled into conference play, where the Red Raiders have taken care of Arizona State and Cincy at home.

Quarterback Behren Morton continues to play at a high level — which is no more apparent than in his 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Morton has one of the strongest arms in the Big 12 and has finally been 100% healthy in 2024.

His backfield mate Tahj Brooks is as seasoned as it comes at the running back position and continues to bulldoze through tacklers, gaining yards after contact.

If Tech wants to get off to a 3-0 start and continue to stay atop the Big 12 standings, it must continue to clean things up on the defensive end.

TTU currently ranks outside the top 100 nationally in both Defensive Pass Success and Havoc, which could be a problem against Noah Fifita and company.

Forcing a turnover or two would go a long way in turning this game in the Red Raiders’ favor.

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Many wrote off the Wildcats after Jedd Fisch decided to bolt for Washington at the 11th hour in the offseason.

Here’s the thing: it may have lost its coach, but Arizona retained two of its stars in QB Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan.

These two continue to make the Wildcat offensive explosive, and there are plenty of other complementary pieces as well.

New HC Brent Brennan has done a nice job in his first season, and this team absolutely believes it has the pieces to make a push for a Big 12 title.

Defensively, Arizona must do a better job in the trenches, where it currently sits 102nd in Line Yards. That’s cause for concern against the aforementioned Brooks and a physical TTU offensive line.

The Wildcat defense also needs to pay attention on fourth down, as Joey Maguire is notorious for being extra aggressive regardless of where Tech is positioned on the field.

When Arizona has the ball, it needs to do a better job of establishing the run and creating some balance on offense. Too often, Fifita is forced into obvious passing situations because the Wildcats cannot get it going on the ground.

Arizona vs Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 42 63
Line Yards 55 102
Pass Success 63 58
Havoc 57 46
Finishing Drives 18 109
Quality Drives 17 52
Arizona Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 102 85
Line Yards 120 59
Pass Success 72 103
Havoc 80 114
Finishing Drives 91 84
Quality Drives 62 111
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 128 107
PFF Coverage 128 57
Special Teams SP+ 9 27
Middle 8 68 5
Seconds per Play 23.8 (13) 29.9 (121)
Rush Rate 45% (101) 44% (112)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Ultimately, I project this game to come right down to the wire, so I see some value in the Red Raiders as nearly a full-touchdown underdog.

Nobody has been able to stop the Tech offense to this point when both Morton and Brooks have been healthy, and I don’t see that changing this week in the desert.

Fifita and the Wildcat offense will certainly score its share of points, but I see this as a back-and-forth affair with plenty of fireworks from both sides.

I give Tech a decent chance to pull off the outright upset, so I will gladly back it, catching this many points. Wreck ‘Em.

Pick: Texas Tech +6.5 (Bet to +6)

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”How to Watch Texas Tech vs Arizona: Start Time, TV Channel, Location” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Date: Saturday, Oct. 5
Kickoff Time: 11 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FOX

Arizona vs Texas Tech is set to kick off at 11 p.m. ET Saturday night on FOX. The game is streaming live on the FOX Sports app, Tubi, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.

Arizona vs. Texas Tech Weather Tonight

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226796″ date=”2024-10-05″][/gameforecast]

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Mike McNamara

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