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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds, Picks, How to Watch NCAAF Week 9

The Texas Longhorns (6-1) look to rebound from their loss to Georgia when they head to Nashville for a top-25 showdown with the Vanderbilt Commodores (5-2). Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

The Longhorns had looked invincible up until their game with Georgia, but they’re now in must-win territory if they want to make the SEC Championship game.

Steve Sarkisian has already said that Quinn Ewers will be the starting quarterback on Saturday after a tough game against the Bulldogs, but we may see Arch Manning again.

Vanderbilt has followed up its upset win over Alabama with back-to-back victories over Kentucky and Ball State to crack the top 25. The Commodores have only lost one SEC game so far — at Missouri in overtime — and they will be no pushover for Texas after what they did to Alabama earlier in the season.

Texas is favored by 19 points on the spread with a total sitting at 53.

Here are my Texas vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.

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  • Texas vs. Vanderbilt Pick: Over 52.5

Texas vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Line

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  • Texas vs. Vanderbilt Spread: Texas -17
  • Texas vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under: 51.5 Points
  • Texas vs. Vanderbilt Moneyline: Texas ML -800 · Vanderbilt ML +500

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Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

What went wrong for Texas against Georgia? The offensive line couldn’t give Ewers time to throw, and it caused all sorts of problems.

Texas turned the ball over a whopping four times and Ewers was sacked five times, which was uncharacteristic for Texas’ offensive line since Ewers had only been sacked three times all season before that outing.

It was a combination of Georgia being able to rush three to four guys and drop a lot of players into coverage, so it was able to get home, while also not allowing any separation to opposing receivers.

While that performance from Texas was concerning for its chances of winning a national title, Vanderbilt isn’t going be able to apply the type of pressure that Georgia did.

In every other game this season, Manning or Ewers has been able to throw the ball very effectively. Before last weekend, the combination had averaged 9.6 yards per attempt.

Texas’ defense was basically perfect up until the game against Georgia, especially its secondary, which came into the game ranking first in EPA/Pass allowed.

Despite winning the game 30-15, Georgia’s Carson Beck didn’t have a good performance, averaging under five yards per attempt while getting picked off three times.

However, you could make the argument that Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia is the best quarterback Texas has faced, especially given his ability with his legs and how efficient he’s been this season.

Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview

Pavia has completely turned around Vanderbilt’s program and has it potentially headed for postseason play if it can pull off another upset on Saturday.

While Pavia is a dangerous runner in quarterback-designed runs (averaging 4.8 yards per carry with 20 runs over 10+ yards), it’s his ability as a passer that’s guided Vanderbilt to the top 25.

This season, Pavia has a 90.0 PFF Passing Grade, which is the sixth-best mark in college football. The threat of him as a runner opens up Vanderbilt’s passing attack, especially with throws down the field.

Almost 42% of Pavia’s passing attempts have been over 10 yards in the air, and on those attempts, he’s 30-for-60, averaging 10.9 yards per attempt with a PFF Passing Grade over 90.

One of the best aspects of Vanderbilt’s offense, though, is its ability on third down. The Commodores are converting 51% of their third downs, and it’s because they’re so successful in third-and-short situations.

Power Success Rate measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a touchdown. Vanderbilt is 16th in that category offensively because of how dangerous Pavia is with both his legs and his arm.

The Vanderbilt defense hasn’t been that good, though, and when it faced an elite quarterback in Jalen Milroe, he torched the unit pretty good.

The Commodores are 68th in EPA/Pass allowed and 105th in Explosive Passing allowed, so they’re likely going to struggle keeping Ewers in check.

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Vanderbilt vs. Texas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Texas match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 21 64
Line Yards 66 42
Pass Success 44 69
Havoc 73 60
Finishing Drives 25 110
Quality Drives 31 76
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 63 26
Line Yards 97 30
Pass Success 15 3
Havoc 44 14
Finishing Drives 48 3
Quality Drives 9 2
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 33 85
PFF Coverage 1 64
Special Teams SP+ 115 14
Middle 8 2 76
Seconds per Play 25.4 (33) 31.4 (132)
Rush Rate 51% (85) 65% (10)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Texas actually wants to play at a very fast pace under Sarkisian, ranking 33rd in seconds per play, which is actually quite fast when you consider all of the games in which it was ahead by a ton and just trying to run the clock out in the second half.

Vanderbilt is at the opposite end of the spectrum; it plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.

The thing with Vanderbilt is if it falls behind in this game — which let’s be honest is likely a given due to how big of an underdog it is — it’s going to have to pick up the pace to get back in the mix.

The biggest concern for Vanderbilt is stopping both Ewers and Manning because of how much it’s struggled against good quarterbacks. Milroe threw for 310 yards and 12.9 yards per attempt against Vanderbilt, so don’t be surprised to see Texas come out throwing the ball at a high rate.

In addition to that, Vanderbilt is 116th in PFF Pass Rushing grade, so it’s not going to be able to put the pressure on Ewers like Georgia was able to.

I think the total is too low here, as I have 57.2 points projected. I like the value on over 52.5 points.

Pick: Over 52.5

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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch

Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: SEC Network

Texas squares off with Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

Vanderbilt vs. Texas Betting Trends

  • 52% of the bets are on Texas to cover the spread against Vandy while 75% of the money is on the same result.
  • 60% of the bets and 83% of the money is on the over to hit in this SEC duel.

Texas vs. Vanderbilt Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226954″ date=”2024-10-26″][/gameforecast]

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