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College Football Odds, Picks: Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Betting Guide

Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Odds

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The Texas A&M Aggies travel to Knoxville to face the Tennessee Volunteers in an SEC clash Saturday afternoon.

Texas A&M is coming off a tough 26-20 loss against Alabama. It’s been a pretty solid season for the Aggies, but with their second defeat of the season, head coach Jimbo Fisher shouldn’t be comfortable, and this will be a massive test for them.

This will be Tennessee’s first game after its bye week, but before that, the Volunteers demolished the South Carolina Gamecocks, 41-20. The Volunteers are looking for their third straight win at Neyland Stadium.

Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Texas A&M vs. Tennessee below.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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The Aggies made it close against the Crimson Tide last week in a game that many pundits picked them to win.

However, I don’t know why everyone was so high on them last week.

I’ll give them that the defense is strong, but Conner Weigman being out for the season is a significant loss. Max Johnson has yet to prove much in his college career, and I was underwhelmed with what I saw from him the past two weeks.

I really like the weapons he has in Evan Stewart, Ainias Smith and his brother, Jake Johnson, but Max needs to show me more.

Even after losing De’Von Achane to the NFL, A&M’s run game has still thrived. While Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss haven’t gotten to Achane’s level of production just yet, they’ve been very efficient. They each have a couple of scores while averaging five yards per carry.

The one knock on them is that they do lack explosiveness. While they’ve been successful for the most part, the Aggies’ run game is 120th in generating big plays.

Regardless of how vanilla this team currently is, coach Fisher and defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin have built a powerful defense. While the Aggies are capable of allowing explosive plays, they’re third in Havoc and eighth in Success Rate.

Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and star defensive lineman Walter Nolen have quarterbacks quaking in their boots.

Defensive backs Josh DeBerry and Demani Richardson have also been crucial in the secondary. However, they did just get cooked by Jermaine Burton for nearly 200 yards last week, so they’ll look to bounce back in Knoxville.

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Joe Milton III is such a fascinating case study. After losing his job to Hendon Hooker, the sixth-year senior is rising to the occasion in Knoxville. The strong-armed quarterback has completed 63% of his passes while throwing for 1,164 yards and nine touchdowns.

I’d only have to imagine the bye was good for Milton, as he threw two picks against South Carolina.

For the Vols, though, a lot of the offensive attack comes through the running game. Jaylen Wright and Dylan Sampson lead the charge — as they average seven yards per carry — and Jabari Small also averages six yards.

With those numbers, you can imagine why Tennessee has such a high Success Rate on the ground, ranking 17th in that category and fifth in PPA.

Through the air, Milton has himself an array of weapons. Squirrel White gets a ton of volume, but Ramel Keyton makes the most of his opportunities, averaging 16.4 yards per catch.

Throwing the ball is always hit-or-miss for Tennessee, as it’s rated 93rd in Passing Success Rate. So, with that in mind and the tough A&M pass defense, I’d expect most of this attack to take place on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, the Vols’ defense has stepped up this season. In Standard Downs, it ranks fifth in both Success Rate and PPA, as well as 26th in Havoc.

Linebacker Aaron Beasley leads the team in both tackles and tackles for loss while defensive back Kamal Hadden has been a force in the secondary.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Tennessee match up statistically:

Texas A&M Offense vs Tennessee Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 41 8
Line Yards 24 17
Pass Success 48 18
Havoc 52 15
Finishing Drives 62 19
Quality Drives 13 20
Tennessee Offense vs Texas A&M Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 17 10
Line Yards 7 9
Pass Success 63 64
Havoc 9 2
Finishing Drives 61 7
Quality Drives 95 34
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 90 87
PFF Coverage 71 3
Special Teams SP+ 82 52
Middle 8 32 19
Seconds per Play 27.0 (70) 21.0 (1)
Rush Rate 49.1% (98) 53.1% (52)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Both teams have really solid defenses, so it makes sense why FanDuel has Tennessee favored by three points.

I mentioned how I’m not sold on Johnson at quarterback for the Aggies, but his vertical weapons in Stewart and Smith will definitely help make this a close bout.

A&M’s defense is so solid, and I fully expect it to make this game either close or low-scoring.

I’m a bit hesitant on Milton’s playmaking, and Tennessee has a very strong run game. The only problem is that A&M’s run defense is stifling, which will probably force Milton to air it out more than usual.

Both of these teams are like oil and water to me since they have exemplary defenses that can limit the other offense’s strengths.

For that reason, I’m betting the under at 55.5, and I will play the total down to 52.5.

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Greg Liodice

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