We have a battle between two struggling ACC programs as the Stanford Cardinal (2-6, 1-4 ACC) head to Raleigh, North Carolina, to take on the NC State Wolfpack (4-4, 1-3) on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
What an ugly season it’s been for Stanford. After starting 2-1, the Cardinal have lost 5 straight — most recently to Wake Forest, 27-24. Quarterback Ashton Daniels completed 77% of his passes for 214 yards and a touchdown but also threw two interceptions.
NC State has been a model of inconsistency all season. Zero momentum has been generated as the Wolfpack have traded wins and losses week after week, most recently sneaking by Cal, 24-23. CJ Bailey looked good, throwing for 306 yards and two touchdown passes but got sacked six times.
The Wolfpack enter as a -10 favorite with an over/under of 46.5.
So where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Read more for my Stanford vs. NC State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
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- Stanford vs NC State Pick: NC State -9.5
My Stanford vs NC State best bet is on the Wolfpack to cover, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Stanford vs NC State Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
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- Stanford vs NC State Spread: Stanford +9.5 (-108) · NC State -9.5 (-112)
- Stanford vs NC State Over/Under: 47 Points
- Stanford vs NC State Moneyline: Stanford +285 · NC State -360
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Stanford Cardinal vs NC State Wolfpack College Football Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/sta.png” logo2url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/subheader]
Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview: A Tree Falls in the Forest
It shouldn’t be a surprise given its record, but Stanford, in nearly all aspects, is incredibly unspectacular. That’s just been the story for the program since 2019.
Daniels is a turnover machine, throwing 16 interceptions over two seasons. In fact, this season, he has more interceptions than touchdown passes.
It doesn’t help that none of his receivers can create separation, which has forced him to generate the most rushing yards on the team.
His top receiver, Elic Ayomanor, had a solid game with 96 yards last week. He could be in for a vig game since NC State is one of the worst programs in the FBS in terms of giving up explosive plays through the air.
Micah Ford is supposed to be the lead back, but he’s averaging just 4.3 yards per carry and has zero trips to the end zone. Chris Davis Jr. gets the most out of his carries, but the freshman doesn’t see the field as much as Ford.
The only strength Stanford has on the defensive side of the ball is against the run, which works well because NC State is terrible at running the ball.
Linebackers Tristan Sinclair and Tevarua Tafiti are tackling monsters, combining for 11 tackles for loss.
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NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Keys to the Freshman
The Wolfpack suffered a major blow when Grayson McCall was forced to retire after suffering yet another concussion. With McCall and his veteran leadership stepping aside, it’s been Bailey’s turn to take the wheel.
Since assuming the helm, Bailey has held strong in his freshman season. He’s completing 67% of his passes, and while he needs to work on his turnovers, his turnover rate isn’t terrible for a freshman just thrown into the fire.
The passing numbers look fine for a team that has struggled to maintain consistency. With receivers like KC Concepcion (who has taken a step back this season), Justin Joly and Noah Rogers, Bailey’s life has been a bit easier.
NC State ranks 51st in Passing Down Success Rate and 46th in Passing Play Success Rate.
With the passing game thriving, the run game has perished. Jordan Waters started the season hot, rushing for 136 yards in Week 1, then only rushed for 154 more yards before getting injured in Week 7.
Since then, it’s been sophomore Kendrick Raphael’s backfield, but he isn’t doing much. The offensive line hasn’t been very helpful as the Wolfpack are 127th in Havoc allowed.
Similar to Stanford, the Pack do a decent job at stopping the run.
They rank 50th in Rush Success Rate allowed but are very prone to allowing a few explosive plays. Luckily for them, I don’t see a whole lot of that happening since Stanford’s run game is abysmal.
Stanford vs NC State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and NC State match up statistically:
Stanford Offense vs. NC State Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 89 | 47 |
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| Line Yards | 120 | 76 |
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| Pass Success | 101 | 50 |
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| Havoc | 132 | 22 |
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| Finishing Drives | 109 | 84 |
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| Quality Drives | 105 | 109 |
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NC State Offense vs. Stanford Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 102 | 80 |
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| Line Yards | 86 | 52 |
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| Pass Success | 26 | 121 |
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| Havoc | 128 | 99 |
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| Finishing Drives | 82 | 121 |
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| Quality Drives | 59 | 110 |
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Pace of Play / Other
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| PFF Tackling | 57 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 110 | 45 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 26 | 64 |
| Middle 8 | 121 | 125 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (92) | 30.6 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (84) | 49% (102) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How To Make College Football Picks For My Stanford vs NC State Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
This is going to be an interesting matchup, as both programs are out of the ACC title race and playing for pride.
I think NC State has the upper hand. I’m much more encouraged by what I’ve seen from Bailey over Daniels at quarterback. As a true freshman, with a horrendous offensive line, completing 67% of your passes with eight touchdowns and four picks is quite impressive.
The spread being listed at -10 seems high, but I believe the Wolfpack have a whole lot more going for them than the Cardinals. Half of their wins are by 10 points are more, so taking NC State at -10 is a risk, but let’s put some faith in the Bailey.
Stanford is a mess, and I think Bailey makes his mark at home.
Pick: NC State -9.5 (-112, DraftKings)
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Stanford vs NC State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]
| Location: | Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Stanford vs NC State will be played at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Saturday, Nov. 2 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ACC Network.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”NC State vs Stanford Betting Trends” center=”true”][/subheader]
- 96% of bets and 92% of the money on the moneyline are on NC State to win outright
- 77% of bets and 85% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
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