The South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) open bowl season against the Western Michigan Broncos (6-6, 5-3 MAC) in the Salute to Veterans Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 14.
The Salute to Veterans Bowl has a history dating back to 2014, when it was known as the Camellia Bowl. The game comes from the historic Cramton Bowl, a venue that dates back to being a spring training facility for the Philadelphia Athletics in 1923.
South Alabama will play in its second bowl inside Cramton, losing the original Camellia Bowl in 2014 to Bowling Green. Head coach Major Applewhite kept bowl season steady in his first season after Kane Wommack left to be the defensive coordinator at Alabama, finishing the season with just enough wins to qualify for a bowl.
Second-year head coach Lance Taylor has brought Western Michigan back to bowl season after last competing in 2021 during the Tim Lester era.
An opener for South Alabama -10 has taken heavy steam on the Western Michigan side. Now, the Jaguars sit at -8 with the over/under at 57.5.
Let’s dive into my South Alabama vs. Western Michigan predictions and college football picks for the Salute to Veterans Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 14.
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- South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Pick: South Alabama -7
My Western Michigan vs. South Alabama best bet is on the Jaguars to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Odds, Spread
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- Spread: South Alabama -6, Western Michigan +6
- Over/Under: 54
- Moneyline: South Alabama ML -225, Western Michigan ML +185
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Editor’s Note: South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez and wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett will not play in the Salute to Veterans Bowl, according to a report from Creg Stephenson of AL.com. Stay up to date on the latest bowl opt-out news here.
South Alabama Jaguars
Applewhite has called a balanced offense with one of the best Success Rate numbers for both the rush and the pass.
Dual-threat quarterback Gio Lopez threw for over 2,500 yards while collecting 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions over the course of the season. Nearly 60% of his 540 rushing yards came off designed calls using counter and inside zone read concepts.
Joining Lopez on the ground for the potent attack are running backs Kentrel Bullock and Fluff Bothwell. The duo provided over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season, each averaging more than 3.8 yards after first contact.
With success at the Group of Five level comes offers in the transfer portal, as Bothwell is expected to be on an SEC roster next season.
South Alabama’s superstar freshman RB Fluff Bothwell is entering the Transfer Portal, per multiple reports.
Bothwell ran for 832 yards and 13 touchdowns this season and is the No. 4 overall running back on PFF 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/mtdOU2Wnvi
— NCAA Transfer Portal (@RivalsPortal) December 9, 2024
While Bullock expects to play in the Salute to Veterans Bowl, Lopez’s health remains in question due to an injury suffered in the finale against Texas State.
Backup quarterback Bishop Davenport was called upon to finish the game against the Bobcats, completing 5-of-7 passes. The Utah State transfer has yet to produce numbers under center, generating a single big-time throw to 7 turnover-worthy plays in his career.
With 141 designed rushing yards on 36 attempts in his career, South Alabama may be a completely ground-dependent team without Lopez.
The portal also snagged another player for the Jaguars on the defensive side of the ball. Cornerback Jordan Scruggs isn’t expected to play in the bowl after racking up four pass breakups and an interception.
The freshman was the primary slot corner for South Alabama, leaving a potential area for attack for the Western Michigan offense.
The Jaguars’ 2-4-5 personnel prefers Cover 3 with a moderate amount of blitz but has struggled to stop opposing offenses in space.
South Alabama ranks 121st in tackle grading, per PFF, also ranking as one of the worst teams in the nation in creating a contested catch.
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Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan failed to produce more than 20 points on offense over the final three games. A combination of poor execution in passing downs and tepid results in scoring opportunities kept the Broncos from challenging for a conference title.
Offensive coordinator Walt Bell ran the ball on 60% of snaps using both inside and outside zone read.
Oklahoma State transfer Jaden Nixon was the workhorse running back for most of the season with 12 touchdowns but faded over the final month of play.
The duo of Jalen Buckley and Zahir Abdus-Salaam combined for 11 touchdowns on the season, each going over 100 yards in the finale against Eastern Michigan.
Quarterback Hayden Wolff finished with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his five-year career dating back to Old Dominion. The senior threw 17 touchdowns behind an offensive line that excelled in protection and graded as the 15th-best in pass blocking, per PFF.
The transfer portal did get an entry from tight end Blake Bosma, the player with the third-most targets from Wolff.
The defense left plenty to be desired for Western Michigan, which allowed more than 30 points to half of the MAC schedule throughout the season.
The 4-2-5 front consistently failed to stop the opposing rush, posting a low 37% Success Rate against opponents using inside zone.
The transfer portal also took two of the better players away from the defensive line, as edge Corey Walker and interior Anterio Thompson both plan to exit Kalamazoo.
Thompson was used exclusively in passing downs, generating 16 pressures in 206 snaps. Walker led the team with 25 pressures and generated the second-most stops at 22 on the season.
Western Michigan vs. South Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Michigan and South Alabama match up statistically:
South Alabama Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 6 | 102 |
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| Line Yards | 7 | 89 |
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| Pass Success | 22 | 127 |
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| Havoc | 66 | 79 |
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| Finishing Drives | 8 | 123 |
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| Quality Drives | 32 | 105 |
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Western Michigan Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 67 | 41 |
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| Line Yards | 55 | 57 |
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| Pass Success | 32 | 54 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Western Michigan” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/588689_wmich2.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 38 | 83 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Western Michigan” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/588689_wmich2.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 41 | 57 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Western Michigan” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/588689_wmich2.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 56 | 70 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Western Michigan” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/588689_wmich2.png”][/teamlogo]
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Western Michigan Broncos” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/588689_wmich2.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 121 | 87 |
| PFF Coverage | 59 | 98 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 60 | 69 |
| Middle 8 | 15 | 82 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (77) | 28.3 (105) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (70) | 60% (28) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Picks, Betting Analysis” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
Bowl season is known for wild swings in the betting market, as the Salute to Veterans bowl follows a long history of portal news shaping the market. South Alabama has been faded because of the portal entry of Bothwell and a potential injury to Lopez at quarterback.
With Davenport at quarterback, expect to see a ground game ignite behind Bullock and his 3.9 yards after first contact.
Western Michigan has not defended inside zone from MAC opponents all season, an exponential factor with Walker and Thompson in the portal.
As of writing, first-team all-Sun Belt wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett plans to play in the bowl game. The slot receiver not only has 119 targets and nine receiving touchdowns but also has the ability to take a punt return to the house.
Spoiler alert: Don’t punt to Jamaal Pritchett…
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) September 12, 2024
The primary driver of the Western Michigan offense has been the zone read, a concept South Alabama has middle-of-the-road FBS rankings against.
Expect South Alabama to generate scoring opportunities, while Western Michigan struggles to execute in the extended red zone as it has over the last month.
The Broncos finished 123rd in Defensive Finishing Drives, a number that will not improve against a South Alabama offense with a running back and wide receiver that boosted its Finishing Drives rank to the top 10.
Our Action Network projection places South Alabama at -12, but the loss of Bothwell and potentially Lopez justifies the move in the market.
With the Jaguars still holding an edge on the ground against a Broncos defensive line losing its best players, there’s value in a South Alabama team playing just a couple of hours away from campus.
Pick: South Alabama -8 (Play to -10)
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South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Start Time, Streaming, How to Watch, Channel
| Location: | Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
South Alabama takes on Western Michigan in the Salute to Veterans Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, on Saturday, Dec. 14 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Betting Trends to Know
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South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Weather Forecast
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