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SMU vs Stanford Predictions, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Saturday

The No. 21 SMU Mustangs (5-1) head out west to take on Stanford Cardinal (2-4) in a game between two schools new to the ACC. Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday on ACC Network.

The Mustangs are still unbeaten in conference play and have looked the part ever since a home loss to BYU back in early September.

Meanwhile, Stanford heads back home with plenty to figure out after losing 49-7 to Notre Dame last week, its third consecutive loss.

The Mustangs are favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -750. The total is currently at 53.5 at the time of writing.

Here’s my SMU vs Stanford predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.

SMU vs Stanford Odds, Pick

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  • SMU vs Stanford spread: Stanford -16.5
  • SMU vs Stanford over/under: 53.5 points
  • SMU vs Stanford moneyline: SMU -750
  • SMU vs Stanford pick: SMU -16.5

My SMU vs Stanford best bet is on the Mustangs spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

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SMU Football

After two shaky games to begin the year, many in Dallas were concerned about this SMU team after plenty of preseason hype.

A bye week and a quarterback change have totally flipped the momentum for the Ponies.

Since the loss to BYU, SMU has won three in a row against the likes of TCU, Florida State and Louisville.

Two of those wins were in blowout fashion. In one, the offense put up 40+ points, and the other was a victory on the road over a ranked Cardinals team.

QB Kevin Jennings took over full time in the TCU game, and he’s been playing phenomenally, completing over 66% of his passes with a 6/1 TD to INT ratio.

Jennings has also been doing a ton with his legs, running for 113 yards in the Louisville win, which included a long TD scamper.

The Mustangs’ defense has also stepped up in a big way.

SMU is inside the top 20 in both Defensive Rush Success and Line Yards — opponents have been unable to get anything going on the ground against the Pony front four.

Replicating that formula Saturday night will force Ashton Daniels into obvious passing situations, which is a win for SMU.

Look for the Mustangs to also bring some pressure off the edge to make life even more difficult for the Cardinal.

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Stanford Football

It was ugly last week in South Bend.

Stanford was outgained 477 to 200 by the Irish and let up 49 unanswered points.

Daniels has plenty of talent and is a great athlete, but he’s failed to reach 200 yards passing in four of five games on the year.

Accuracy issues are a concern, and Daniels is also not taking care of the ball, having already tossed six interceptions in five games.

To make matters worse, the Stanford defense can’t stop anybody. The Cardinal rank 115th in Defensive Pass Success and 119th in Finishing Drives, staggeringly poor numbers for a Power Four defense.

That’s not a good recipe for success against an SMU offense that’s found its stride.

To have any chance to keep this close, the Trees will likely need to force a couple of turnovers and win the time of possession battle.

SMU vs Stanford Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Stanford match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 54 77
Line Yards 78 38
Pass Success 64 115
Havoc 47 90
Finishing Drives 37 119
Quality Drives 26 112
Stanford Offense vs. SMU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 78 18
Line Yards 104 17
Pass Success 105 66
Havoc 132 47
Finishing Drives 86 32
Quality Drives 77 28
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 78 77
PFF Coverage 58 109
Special Teams SP+ 66 8
Middle 8 35 109
Seconds per Play 25.5 (31) 29.0 (106)
Rush Rate 61% (29) 57% (59)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Ultimately, I don’t have much faith in a suspect Stanford defense being able to slow down a Pony offense that’s firing on all cylinders at the moment.

SMU should be able to get whatever it wants both on the ground and through the air.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t expect Stanford to be able to keep pace, and it likely won’t get much home crowd help from the Cardinal faithful.

Give me SMU to win big in this one, covering the number and keeping its ACC title game alive and well in the process.

Pick: SMU -16

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SMU vs Stanford Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch

Location: Stanford Stadium
Date: Saturday, Oct. 19
Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ACC Network

SMU and Stanford go head-to-head at Stanford Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.

Stanford vs SMU Betting Trends

  • 55% of the bets and 62% of the money is on SMU to cover the spread against Stanford.
  • 55% of the bets and 59% of the money is on the over.

Stanford vs SMU Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226922″ date=”2024-10-19″][/gameforecast]

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Mike McNamara

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