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smu mustangs vs east carolina pirates-odds-predictions-picks-ncaaf-betting-october 12

SMU vs East Carolina Odds, Prediction & Picks | Thursday AAC Betting Guide

SMU vs ECU Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/smu.png” awayname=”SMU” awayslug=”southern-methodist-mustangs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ecu.png” homename=”East Carolina” homeslug=”east-carolina-pirates” date=”Thursday, Oct. 12″ time=”7:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-11.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”+11.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”49.5″ col2hometext=”49.5″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”-450″ col3hometext=”+350″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

On Thursday night, we’ll see SMU go on the road to take on East Carolina in an AAC clash.

Both of these teams have had similar struggles this year. Each side has had to replace its veteran quarterback and rely on its defense to keep its sputtering offense alive.

With the strengths of these two teams lining up well, I believe this makes for a potentially predictable outcome on Thursday night.

Let’s take a look at the odds for SMU vs. East Carolina, along with my pick for this NCAAF betting preview for Thursday, Oct. 12.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”SMU Mustangs” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/smu.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/southern-methodist-mustangs” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

This year’s SMU team doesn’t appear to have the high-scoring passing offense it’s had in years past.

It makes sense after losing Tanner Mordecai to Wisconsin and Rashee Rice to the NFL, and Preston Stone has not proven that he can carry this offense in the same way.

The Mustangs rank 63rd in Offensive Success Rate and 52nd in Finishing Drives. The rushing game has been their strength, ranking 38th in Success Rate and 50th in PPA.

While the aerial has been relatively weak with a rank of 79th in Success Rate, it’s been an explosive unit that comes in at eighth in the country in terms of creating big plays.

Defensively, this team has been stout. SMU ranks 21st in Success Rate overall, coming in at 15th against the run and 39th against the pass.

The Mustangs’ main issue on defense has been allowing explosive passing plays, where they rank 104th. However, ECU sits 117th in passing explosiveness, so I don’t think that will hurt them this weekend.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”East Carolina Pirates” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ecu.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/east-carolina-pirates” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

East Carolina’s offense has been among the worst in FBS this season. The Pirates rank 120th in Success Rate and 130th in Finishing Drives while sitting 124th as a unit, per SP+.

Alex Flinn was tasked with replacing longtime quarterback Holton Ahlers this offseason, but it has not gone well thus far. Flinn currently has just one passing touchdown to five interceptions this year and is averaging -0.23 EPA per dropback.

Those numbers have led ECU to rank 120th in Passing Success Rate and 121st in Passing PPA. The lack of a competent passing game is a big problem for the Pirates considering they throw the ball at the 48th-highest rate in the country.

On the ground, ECU sits 92nd in Success Rate and 97th in PPA. That plays right into SMU’s defensive strength, so I wouldn’t expect much production from the ground game either.

Similar to SMU, East Carolina’s defense has performed much better than its offense this season, ranking 26th in Success Rate and 11th in Finishing Drives. They’re also the 10th-best defense in the nation at creating Havoc.

The best aspect of this Pirates unit is the rushing defense, which ranks 13th in Success Rate and 43rd in PPA. Meanwhile, ECU comes in at 58th in Success Rate and 89th in PPA against the pass.

This gap between PPA and Success Rate is explained by the Pirates’ tendency to allow explosive plays. They sit 115th in passing explosiveness allowed and 129th in rushing explosiveness allowed, which puts them at 131st nationally in overall explosiveness allowed.

While SMU’s run game isn’t overtly explosive, we may see the passing game put up some big plays against this defense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and East Carolina match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 38 13
Line Yards 26 11
Pass Success 79 88
Havoc 12 14
Finishing Drives 52 11
Quality Drives 15 68
East Carolina Offense vs. SMU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 94 15
Line Yards 84 62
Pass Success 120 60
Havoc 79 75
Finishing Drives 130 87
Quality Drives 122 27
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 63 50
PFF Coverage 85 76
Special Teams SP+ 113 108
Middle 8 2 49
Seconds per Play 24.6 (23) 26.7 (63)
Rush Rate 53.4% (56) 50.4% (93)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”SMU vs East Carolina” subtext=”Betting Prediction, Pick” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

I believe the strengths of these teams match up well with what their opponents will want to do.

On one side, ECU’s run defense should be able to stifle an SMU ground game that’s been leaned on heavily to this point. On the other, the Mustangs’ main defensive strength comes against the run, which has been the most respectable part of East Carolina’s poor offense.

While I’m worried about SMU potentially generating some explosive passing plays against ECU’s defense, I still believe in these two defenses more than either offensive unit.

For that reason, I like taking the under at 51.5 and would play it down to 49.5.

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Cody Goggin

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