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College Football Odds, Picks for San Jose State vs Toledo

San Jose State vs Toledo Odds

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Buried deep in Saturday’s college football card is this highly intriguing matchup between San Jose State and Toledo, which features two teams with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.

San Jose State will be playing its fourth game of the year and is coming off its first win (Cal Poly) after losing to USC and Oregon State.

On the other side, the Rockets are 1-1 and looking for another victory to stay on their path towards bowl eligibility.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds and make a prediction for San Jose State vs. Toledo.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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San Jose State’s success will be dictated in large part by the performance of senior quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. The Hawaii native threw for 2,884 yards and a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio a year ago.

The Spartans’ dependence on Cordeiro has been evident since the start of the season, as San Jose State ranks 23rd nationally in passing play rate despite ranking 105th nationally in Passing Success.

This inconsistency can be largely attributed to the Spartans losing three of their top four receivers, most notably Elijah Cooks, who accounted for 1,076 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022.

Toledo presents a tough test for Cordeiro, as the Rockets return eight starters from a defense that allowed an average of 183 passing yards per game in 2022.

Toledo’s talented secondary has lived up to expectations, as the Rockets rank inside the top 50 in both Success Rate and Explosiveness Allowed in Passing Downs.

Overall, Toledo ranks eighth nationally in Defensive Explosiveness, an area that will be key as San Jose State ranks 43rd nationally in the same category on the offensive side.

 

I love this matchup for Toledo’s defense, which will look to neutralize San Jose State’s offense, a unit that has been historically one-dimensional with Cordeiro under center.

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After racking up nine wins in 2022, Toledo will once again be looking to go bowling in 2023.

The Rockets’ offense has returning production at all the major skill positions.

Quarterback Dequan Finn will be able to utilize the return of his top two receivers, along with a loaded running back room that’s headlined by junior Jacquez Stuart.

https://twitter.com/FCProspects_/status/1698167710163579231

That offensive firepower was on full display last week, as the Rockets posted 71 points and 549 yards against FCS Texas Southern.

That offensive success is likely to continue against San Jose State, a team that can be exposed early and often. The Spartans rank 112th nationally in Defensive Success Rate and have been particularly poor against the run, ranking outside the top 100 in rushing play PPA and Success Rate.

If Toledo is able to establish itself on the ground, the field will open up for Finn to create explosive plays through the air, where the Rockets rank 34th nationally in Passing Play Explosiveness.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Toledo match up statistically:

San Jose State Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 125
Line Yards 64 123
Pass Success 105 88
Havoc 75 97
Finishing Drives 125 36
Quality Drives 75 44
Toledo Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 36 123
Line Yards 52 120
Pass Success 26 116
Havoc 25 109
Finishing Drives 11 101
Quality Drives 5 111
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 118 57
PFF Coverage 89 24
Special Teams SP+ 129 52
Middle 8 68 7
Seconds per Play 28.8 (93) 25.3 (42)
Rush Rate 46.9% (115) 55.2% (29)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”San Jose State vs Toledo” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

Look for Toledo’s defense to do enough to allow its highly-talented offense to run away with this one on Saturday night.

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Cooper Van Tatenhove

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