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Rutgers vs Iowa Odds & Prediction: How to Bet Historic Over/Under

Rutgers vs Iowa Odds

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Some matchups jump off of the screen as must-watch television. This is not one of those games unless you’re a true degenerate.

Rutgers travels to Iowa City for a Big Ten matchup that could help solidify Iowa’s place atop the West division.

The Scarlet Knights fell to 6-3 following their home loss to Ohio State last week. They are 6-2-1 against the spread and have gone over in five of their nine games.

Iowa enters this game at 7-2 after a thrilling, last-second win at Northwestern. The Hawkeyes are 4-3-1 against the spread and have gone under in seven of their eight games, including each of the last four.

The weather will be cool and windy for this game. Crosswinds are expected to range from 6-9 mph miles per hour during the game, but neither team passes enough to be even marginally affected on offense.

What could be impacted is special teams. Both Iowa and Rutgers could be benefactors of missed field goals and better-than-normal field position.

Let’s dive into the Rutgers vs. Iowa odds and find a betting prediction for Saturday, Nov. 11.

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Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Greg Schiano has Rutgers bowl eligible and squarely in the middle of the Big Ten East. The Scarlet Knights are averaging 26.8 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. They have a 42% success rate and score 3.9  points per opportunity. One key strength to the Rutgers offense has been its ability to limit negative plays with just an 11% Havoc Rate.

Gavin Wimsatt leads a Rutgers passing attack that averages 146.2 passing yards on 23.4 pass attempts per game. Wimsatt is completing 49% of his passes for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. As a team, Rutgers ranks 112th nationally with a 37% passing success rate and they complete an average of 1.9 passes over 20 yards per game.

Rutgers runs the ball 40.2 times per game for an average of 184.7 rushing yards per game. Kyle Monangai, along with Wimsatt’s running threat, has been a strength of the offense with 168 carries for 903 yards and seven touchdowns. As a team, the Scarlet Knights have a 45% rushing success rate. The offensive line creates 3.19 line yards per rush attempt and allows a 15.3% stuff rate.

Rutgers allows 17.9 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. They rank 99th in success rate allowed at 44% and they hold opponents to 3.44 points per opportunity. They generate Havoc on 17% of plays.

The biggest strength for the defense has been its ability to limit explosive plays. They allow an average of just 1.9 plays per game of 20-plus yards.

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What can be said about this Iowa team that hasn’t been said 100 times over? The Hawkeyes play elite defense and horrific defense.

Brian Ferentz’s journey to 25 points per game is completely off-track as the Hawkeyes average just 18.4 points per game and 4.0 yards per play. Iowa ranks 133rd nationally in success rate at 32% and 127th in points per opportunity with just 2.89 — and this is despite ranking inside of the top 15 in average starting field position.

Iowa averages just 110.8 passing yards per game on 22.6 attempts. Deacon Hill has jumped into the starting role after Cade McNamara’s season ended with a torn ACL in early October. Hill is completing 41.6% of his passes for an average of 4.4 yards per attempt. As a team, the Hawkeyes have a 31% passing success rate and have just 16 total passes over 20 yards for the season.

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Iowa runs the ball on 57% of plays and averages 3.4 yards per carry. Leshon Williams leads the backfield with 110 carries. He has 551 rushing yards and one touchdown. As a team, the Hawkeyes have a 34% rushing success rate. Their offensive line generates just 2.44 line yards per attempt and allows a 22.8% stuff rate.

What’s keeping Iowa in the Big Ten title race is their elite defense. They rank fourth in scoring defense at just 13.7 points allowed. Iowa holds opponents to a 35% success rate and to 2.52 points per opportunity.

Unlike in some prior seasons, however, the Hawkeyes haven’t generated stops by creating negative plays. They have a 15% Havoc Rate, which ranks 94th nationally.

The strength of the defense has been limiting explosive plays. In nine games, the Hawkeyes have allowed just 12 plays of 20 yards or more.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Rutgers and Iowa match up statistically:

Rutgers Offense vs. Iowa Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 49 33
Line Yards 50 44
Pass Success 112 10
Havoc 6 105
Finishing Drives 66 4
Quality Drives 40 6
Iowa Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 132 126
Line Yards 132 105
Pass Success 132 21
Havoc 117 65
Finishing Drives 127 46
Quality Drives 127 14
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 4 2
PFF Coverage 8 1
Special Teams SP+ 53 28
Middle 8 80 67
Seconds per Play 30.4 (126) 28.8 (98)
Rush Rate 63.2% (9) 60.0% (19)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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As of this writing, Iowa is favored by 1 point after the game opened at Iowa +3. Sharps are backing the underdog, per the Pro Report. Approximately 53% of bets and 60% of the money is in favor of Rutgers.

Totals for Iowa games are reaching historic lows. The line opened at 28.5 and briefly moved to 29, but has dropped back down to 28.5. Even with the historic lows, both sharps and big-money bets have favored the under — 76% of bets and 94% of the money is on the under.

My preferred play is on the under. Both teams play at an incredibly slow pace and lean heavily on the running game. I’m not expecting either team to find much success on offense, but instead  lean on their defenses to drag them to victory.

Pick: Under 28.5 (Play to 27)

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Matt Wispe

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