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memphis tigers vs rice owls-prediction-pick-spread-nov 8

Rice vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds, Picks, How to Watch NCAAF Friday

The Rice Owls (3-6, 2-3 AAC) take on the Memphis Tigers (7-2, 3-2 AAC) on Friday night in American Conference action. The game kicks off at 9 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN2.

The Tigers had hopes of winning the AAC coming into the season, while the Owls were hoping to see improvement under head coach Mike Bloomgren. However, Bloomgren was fired after a 2-6 start, and the Owls upset Navy, 24-10, in their next game.

Still, Memphis comes in as a 9-point favorite, with the over/under set at 53.5.

Let’s dig into this matchup and get to my Rice vs. Memphis predictions and college football picks for Nov. 8.

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  • Rice vs. Memphis Pick: Rice Team Total Under 21.5

My Memphis vs. Rice best bet is for the Owls to stay under their team total and score fewer than 21.5 points. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.

Rice vs. Memphis Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • Rice vs. Memphis Spread: Memphis -7.5
  • Rice vs. Memphis Over/Under: 50.5 Total Points
  • Rice vs. Memphis Moneyline: Rice ML +220 · Memphis ML -275

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Rice rallied the troops in a big way last week after the firing of head coach Mike Bloomgren.

The Owls pulled out a shocking 24-10 upset over Navy. The game was delayed over five hours due to inclement weather, but once the game resumed, Rice went right down the field for touchdowns on back-to-back possessions in the first quarter.

The Owls’ defense stole the show as Navy never threatened and only amassed 260 yards of offense. Rice’s run defense was keyed in on the option all night as the Middies achieved only 140 rush yards on a 3.5 yards per carry average.

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Memphis is coming off a shocking 44-36 road loss to UTSA. This was expected to be a highly anticipated AAC showdown as these teams were pre-season AAC favorites, but both have underachieved in conference play this season.

It was shocking to see Memphis surrender a 24-14 second quarter as UTSA scored the next 30 points to take firm control of the game.

During that stretch, Memphis failed to score on nine straight possessions and was stopped on downs four times.

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Memphis vs. Rice Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and Rice match up statistically:

Rice Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 91 44
Line Yards 84 13
Pass Success 121 66
Havoc 85 8
Finishing Drives 104 81
Quality Drives 116 43
Memphis Offense vs. Rice Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 55 33
Line Yards 65 74
Pass Success 84 24
Havoc 23 29
Finishing Drives 28 21
Quality Drives 22 23
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 6 97
PFF Coverage 11 88
Special Teams SP+ 112 56
Middle 8 104 102
Seconds per Play 26.5 (50) 27.9 (90)
Rush Rate 38% (131) 45% (118)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This is a buy-low, sell-high situation for both teams. Memphis’ defense isn’t as bad as it played last week and I don’t think Rice is as good as we saw last week. I am going to grab the Rice Team Total at Under 21.5.

Despite the recent uninspiring play, Memphis is solid defensively — ranking 38th in Defensive Success Rate and fifth in Defensive Havoc. The run defense has been solid for most of the year holding, teams to just 115.7 yards per game and a 3.9 yard per carry average.

Rice has struggled in standard down situations, ranking just 99th in Offensive Standard Down Success Rate. Over the past three weeks, Rice has averaged just 101 yards per game on the ground.

Memphis should be able to stop Rice’s ground game and force the Owls into undesirable pass situations. Rice’s offense ranks just 18th in Pass Play EPA Per Play and 126th in Pass Play Success Rate. The Owls are limited in their explosiveness as they don’t have a receiver averaging more than 12 yards per reception on the season.

Rice has also struggled on third downs, converting just 34.5%. The Memphis defense forces teams into third down situations frequently and has seen the opposition convert just 35% of the time.

Rice struggles in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 15-of-28 attempts with five of those touchdowns coming against FCS bottom feeder Texas Southern. Against FBS competition, Rice is averaging 16 points per game. Oh, and that drops when on the road, where Rice is 0-4 and averaging just 10.2 points per game.

Memphis’ offense is playing at a much slower pace this season and averaging nearly 34 minutes of time of possession. The Tigers have made a concerted effort to run the ball more and when the game is on the line, I expect Memphis to control the line of scrimmage.

I expect a low-scoring game and feel we’re getting value on a higher-than-normal team total for Rice. So, I’ll take the under.

Pick: Rice Team Total Under 21.5

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Rice vs. Memphis Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch, Location

Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Date: Friday, Nov. 8
Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN2

Rice vs. Memphis will be played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Friday, Nov. 8, at 9 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.

Rice vs. Memphis Betting Trends

  • 38% of bets and 69% of the money are on Rice to cover the spread
  • 94% of bets and 96% of the money on the moneyline are on Memphis to win outright
  • 89% of bets and 78% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

Rice vs. Memphis Weather Forecast

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