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purdue boilermakers vs oregon state beavers-prediction-pick-odds

Purdue vs Oregon State Prediction and Pick for NCAAF Week 4

Purdue heads west to Corvallis, Oregon, to take on Oregon State on Saturday for an 8:30 p.m. ET start on The CW Network.

Both of these teams suffered double-digit losses last week and are looking to bounce back after their worst performances of the young season.

The Boilermakers are 5.5-point underdogs with a total that sits at 50. Purdue is -205 on the moneyline.

Read below for my Purdue vs Oregon State prediction.

Purdue vs Oregon State Odds, Pick

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  • Point Spread: Purdue +2.5 · Oregon State  -2.5
  • Total: Over/Under 50.5
  • Moneyline: Purdue +114 · Oregon State -137
  • Pick: Purdue +4
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Purdue Football

If you just saw the score flash across the screen last week, you probably had to double or triple take before processing that the Boilermakers lost by 59 points at a home to Notre Dame in a game they closed as a touchdown underdog.

Purdue was bullied from start to finish by the Irish, particularly in the trenches. This was the same Notre Dame team that had lost to Northern Illinois the prior week. To an extent, that’s modern-day college football. Parity is upon us and there are plenty of ebbs and flows throughout a season.

That said, Purdue needs to flush that result and focus on the task that lies ahead of it in Corvallis.

QB Hudson Card still has plenty of talent and has seen it all in a five-year career that began in Austin and has had plenty of twists and turns. The Boilermakers need more balance offensively and they also need to stop shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and other sloppy errors.

On the defensive end, two key areas are really hurting Purdue. It ranks outside the top 75 in Pass Success and outside the top 100 in Defensive Finishing Drives. Opponents are scoring touchdowns at will when they get inside Boilermaker territory.

The good news in this matchup is that Oregon State doesn’t throw it very well, and it hasn’t been all that good in the red zone either. Ryan Walters’ defense needs to get more pressure up front and take away a methodical Beaver rushing attack.

Oregon State Football

There’s no shame in losing to a top-10 team, but when it comes to your in-state rival by 35 points after they ditched you for a new conference, it hurts a little bit more. The Beavers had no answer for the Oregon offense, surrendering 546 yards and failing to force a single punt in the entire game.

For the year, the Oregon State defensive metrics are terrible. They come in 118th in Line Yards, 106th in Havoc, and 104th in Finishing Drives. It’s not much better against the pass.

Purdue obviously didn’t look good last week, but Card still has a live arm and the Beavers haven’t been able to generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That’s concerning moving forward.

On the other side of the ball, it will likely be a heavy dosage of Anthony Hankerson, who runs hard but is not the fastest back in the country.

Idaho transfer QB Gevani McCoy has been decent through three games, but he needs to be a little bit more aggressive down the field to take some pressure off the running game. Taking care of the ball and finishing drives with touchdowns when in the red zone will go a long way in helping the Beavers bounce back at home here.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Oregon State match up statistically:

Purdue Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 87 99
Line Yards 18 118
Pass Success 92 84
Havoc 84 106
Finishing Drives 1 104
Quality Drives 116 70
Oregon State Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 19 43
Line Yards 14 82
Pass Success 80 77
Havoc 31 101
Finishing Drives 64 110
Quality Drives 23 84
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 125 96
PFF Coverage 124 50
Special Teams SP+ 66 126
Middle 8 134 17
Seconds per Play 28.1 (71) 30.8 (120)
Rush Rate 49% (109) 65% (18)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Before last week’s games, I think this matchup would’ve been lined with Oregon State as no more than a field goal favorite.

Yes, the Boilermakers were atrocious last week but I think the market has overreacted to that embarrassment against Notre Dame. I expect that Walters laid into his team all week in practice and I think you’ll see Purdue come out with its hair on fire in this one.

The Boilermakers should find much more success offensively against a Beaver defense with plenty of holes. They have a path to winning this game outright, so I will gladly take the points and back them as a road underdog in this one.

Pick: Purdue +4 or Better

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How to Watch Purdue vs Oregon State Live: Streaming, Channel, Time

Location: Reser Stadium| Corvallis, Oregon
Date: Saturday, Sep. 21
Kickoff Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: The CW

Oregon State vs Purdue Betting Trends

  • Oregon State has landed 77% of the tickets and 72% of the money against the spread.
  • Total-wise, the over has taken 73% of the bets and 98% of the cash.

Oregon State vs Purdue Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226709″ date=”2024-09-21″][/gameforecast]

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Mike McNamara

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