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purdue boilermakers vs nebraska cornhuskers-odds-prediction-college football-betting-picks-saturday oct 28

Purdue vs Nebraska Odds & Picks: Bet Cornhuskers to Cover

Purdue Boilermakers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Odds

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Don’t look now, but Matt Rhule has the Nebraska Cornhuskers rolling. They’ve won four of their past five games and are trending toward their first bowl appearance since 2016. They enter this game as a -1 favorite, while the over/under comes in at a low 39.5.

The Cornhuskers actually control their own destiny in the Big Ten West and it’s not impossible for them to run the table and earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship game.

Meanwhile, things haven’t gone as well for Ryan Walters in his first season at Purdue. The Boilermakers have won just two games all season and have lost four of their past five.

With Michigan coming next week, the Boilermakers need this win to keep their season from really spiraling downhill.

For Nebraska, a win against Purdue will keep it alive in the division race.

Purdue vs Nebraska odds and a prediction in a college football betting preview for Saturday, October 28 are below.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Purdue had high hopes for Hudson Card when he transferred in from Texas, but he’s been inconsistent in this new offense. Card has thrown just seven touchdowns in seven games and has nine Big Time Throws with 12 Turnover Worthy Plays.

Offensively, Purdue has switched from a pass-heavy scheme to a more balanced attack under new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell.

As a result, the running game has been more effective. Sophomore tailback Devin Mockobee is averaging just under 70 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry this season. He has also forced 22 missed tackles.

It makes sense that the Boilermakers would have a middling offense after they lost the offensive-minded Jeff Brohm and hired a former defensive coordinator in Walters. That being said, it’s pretty concerning to see how bad Purdue’s defense has been.

The Boilermakers rank 71st in Success Rate on defense and 112th at defending Explosiveness. They are also allowing an average of 5.8 yards per play, which is last in the Big Ten. Even Iowa posted 5.2 yards per play against Purdue.

Purdue has had issues defending both the run and the pass. The Boilermakers don’t create any Havoc and haven’t had success forcing turnovers.

They have a few nice pieces in edge rusher Kydran Jenkins and safety Dillon Thieneman, but opponents are still averaging 30 points per game against the Boilermakers.

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Nebraska was another team with high hopes for a transfer quarterback. It didn’t get what it expected from Jeff Sims, but his ankle injury might have turned the Cornhuskers’ season around, as they seem to have found something in Heinrich Haarberg.

The 6-foot-5 quarterback has thrown five touchdowns this season, but has also been electric with his legs, as he’s averaging 102.3 rushing yards per game in Nebraska’s four wins.

With Haarberg under center and a large rotation of running backs led by Anthony Grant, the Cornhuskers have gone all in on their running game.

https://twitter.com/HuskersTopPlays/status/1715412734701892053

No team in the Big Ten has run the ball better than the Cornhuskers this year. They lead the conference in both yards per carry (4.9) and rushing yards per game (195). Nebraska is eighth in the country in rushing rate and has won every game in which it has scored more than one rushing touchdown.

Nebraska’s biggest area of improvement under Rhule has clearly been the defense. This unit has been terrific this season and ranks 41st in the country in Success Rate and 24th in preventing big plays.

Linebacker Luke Reimer is the heartbeat of the defense after leading the team in tackles in each of the past two seasons. He missed two weeks after being hospitalized with a staph infection, but returned last week.

Nebraska also has Nash Hutmacher and Ty Robinson wreaking Havoc up front and safety Isaac Gifford roaming the back end.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Nebraska match up statistically:

Purdue Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 56 26
Line Yards 76 84
Pass Success 71 36
Havoc 104 78
Finishing Drives 122 53
Quality Drives 51 55
Nebraska Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 52 79
Line Yards 55 36
Pass Success 120 102
Havoc 112 72
Finishing Drives 82 103
Quality Drives 97 100
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 102 40
PFF Coverage 128 48
Special Teams SP+ 129 114
Middle 8 113 80
Seconds per Play 25.2 (34) 30.2 (119)
Rush Rate 51.0% (85) 65.2% (8)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Expect Robinson and Hutmacher to have monster games off the edge against a Purdue offensive line that has allowed the sixth-most quarterback pressures in the country.

Haarberg has injected new life into Nebraska’s offense and has helped the Huskers overcome all their injuries. He struggles with turnovers at times, but the defense has been able to pick him up.

Purdue has been able to find reasonable success moving the ball on a down-to-down basis, but has struggled to pick up chunk plays and has been terrible at converting drives into points.

The Boilermakers rank outside of the top 120 in Explosiveness and Finishing Drives on offense and are 127th in red-zone efficiency.

Back Nebraska to get one step closer to returning to a bowl game.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Nebraska -2.5 (Play to -4)” linktext=”Bet the Cornhuskers Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.401417089&selectionId=70350&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Mike Ianniello

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